7 Mar 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 9, 2022


XMR opened at 150.14 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), peaked at 181.08 on Thursday and closed the week’s action at 159.50 (+5.95%~).

The action

The first half of Week 9 was dominated by bull attacks. The bears had to defend until the weekend, before getting a chance to counterstrike.

After flipping 160 on Monday, the bulls started marching towards the important 180 resistance.

The bears were forced to defend the area for 3 days: Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

Bulls finally started to lose steam after printing the week’s high at 181.08 on Thursday.

Riding on RSI divergences, the bears managed to push them back to 160 on Saturday and deny the bulls a glorious ~20% result.

The action closed at 159.50, with a bitter +5.95% result for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are actively defending 160.

The bulls sure have their work cut out for them.

As previously reported:

The bulls are currently planning to strike 160.

Check. They managed to win 160 but the zone is now being disputed again.

A close above 180-190 would open up a clear path to 230.

Failed. Although very close, they have wasted a great opportunity to close above 180.

The bulls have to defend 150-160 and use that support to restart their offensive campaign towards 180.

A close above 190 would restart hopes of fighting for 200 and 230.

The bears defended well and should get ready to push deep into enemy territory.

As previously reported:

The bears need to slow down bulls around 160-165 so they buy enough time to deploy defending troops at the 180 resistance.

Check. This is precisely what happened.

If they can stop bulls from closing above 190, they will surely get a counterstrike opportunity. That would put 160 and 135-140 on the map again.

Check. They are in a good position right now.

Bears need to retake 160 and use its strategic value to launch attacks inside the heavily defended bull zone: 135-150.

Win 135 to force bulls into a shameful retreat towards 90-110.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are finally starting to make some progress as the bearish narrative is weakening.

The bulls started the week at .003998 with a solid defensive move that ended up blocking a bear blitz attack at .003846. That was the week’s low point.

It was apparent to everyone that the bears will not be permitted to push the action below the hourly 200 EMA.

By Friday, the daring bulls had already printed goldencrosses on most hourly charts: 2, 3 and 4H.

The last time they managed to pull this off was back in December of 2021.

Although the week’s high was recorded on Sunday at .004451, the bears started pushing back just before the bell and managed to recover some ground.

Bulls had to settle with the +3.60% result after the action closed at .004140.

The bulls are in a great position.

Let’s check the previously reported objectives:

A pierce of the 4H 200 EMA with a close above .0041 should be the first priority for the bulls.

Check. The bulls are now in full control of the 4H 200 exponential.

Break .00425 to unlock more impressive targets [..]

Failed, but they did briefly managed to push the action above .00425 during the weekend.

If the bulls can find support above .0041 and close above .00445, they should be able to target .0048 next.

Bears are in a bad spot but all is not yet lost.

The bulls are now toying with the idea of cascading goldencrosses from the hourly to bigger timeframes. Bears could put an end to all that on the 3H at the 200 exponential around .00405.

Failed. The bears weren’t able to stop the powerful bull move.

Then, if they can close below .00395, previously reported targets would suddenly become viable [..]

Failed. Their blitz attack was stopped on Monday and they never got another chance to close below .00395.

The bears need to stop the bulls from building their higher high / higher low pattern.

A successful defense of .0043/44 and a close below .0041 would open up previous targets for the bears:

If the bears can strike and retake .0039, they should be able to focus on .0038 next and .0035 eventually [..]

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.