28 Feb 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 8, 2022


XMR opened at 153.82 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), bottomed at 131.91 on Thursday and closed the week’s action at 150.55 (-2.51%~).

The action

Week 8 has been a roller coaster: bears were looking invincible during the first half, before the bulls heroically defended a crucial support which lead to a spectacular counterattack.

The bulls had two shots at higher highs on Monday at 160 and Wednesday at 155. Both times, the bears firmly rejected them at the 2H 50 EMA.

On Thursday, the speculative bearish efforts finally paid out as they briefly took control of the very important support area and printed the week’s low at 131.91.

Fortunately for the bulls, the area is essentially a stronghold: the weekly 200 & 50 weekly and monthly exponentials meet there.

The bulls initiated the counterattack at the first sign of RSI divergences (1/4H) just as the bears were running out of ammo. This produced an impressive daily candle with a ~11% rejection to the downside.

It was the bell and the 200 EMA on the 2 hour chart that temporarily stopped the 160 bull campaign.

The heated action closed at 150.55, with a -2.51% result for the bears.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are going for an hourly goldencross which would help them flip 160.

The bulls have a small window of opportunity. They should make the best of it.

Let’s analyze the previously reported objectives:

With only 7 days left until the monthly close, the bulls absolutely have to stay above the monthly 50 exponential in the 130-140 zone.

Check. Bears got very close with the 131.91 low, but the bulls have successfully defended the area for now.

If they manage to defend the crucial support, retake 160 and then confidently close above 190, the previously reported targets would become viable again [..]

In progress. The bulls are currently planning to strike 160.

A close above 180-190 would open up a clear path to 230.

The bears missed their shot and have to defend now.

As previously reported:

[..] they are planning the 135 decisive attack.

A bear victory in that area would be massive. The weekly and monthly charts are the last bull bastions. Break those supporting moving average zones and the bulls would be forced to defend 90-110 next.

Failed. The 135 assault was simply not strong enough to break the bulls.

The bears need to slow down bulls around 160-165 so they buy enough time to deploy defending troops at the 180 resistance.

If they can stop bulls from closing above 190, they will surely get a counterstrike opportunity.

That would put 160 and 135-140 on the map again.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls can’t seem to find any space for elaborate offensive moves as the bears are constantly harassing them from all angles.

The bulls started the week at .004009 with a promising attack that was cleanly rejected just under the 200 EMA on the 4H. That was the week’s high: .004143.

Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, the bulls were forced to retreat and defend .0038.

The bears were stopped at .003796 by a surprise weekend counterattack based on RSI divergences. That was the week’s low.

Bears were denied a -5% win as the action finally closed at .003997 after bullish efforts, for an insignificant -0.36% result.

The bulls need to start a higher high / higher low pattern.

Let’s check the previously reported objectives:

If the bulls can defend .0039 and return to take control of .00425, previously reported targets should be within reach [..]

1/2. They managed to, in the end, close above .0039. But that’s about it.

A pierce of the 4H 200 EMA with a close above .0041 should be the first priority for the bulls.

Break .00425 to unlock more impressive targets:

A close above .0044 would put .0048 and eventually .0054 on the map.

Bears have to stop dropping the ball. Inconsistency could lead to their downfall.

If they can keep riding the daily RSI momentum and stop the bulls from breaking above any of the hourly resistances, the next targets should become very clear [..]

The bulls are now toying with the idea of cascading goldencrosses from the hourly to bigger timeframes.

Bears could put an end to all that on the 3H at the 200 exponential around .00405.

Then, if they can close below .00395, previously reported targets would suddenly become viable:

If the bears can strike and retake .0039, they should be able to focus on .0038 next and .0035 eventually [..]

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.