21 Feb 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 7, 2022


XMR opened at 173.51 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), peaked at 183.53 on Wednesday and closed the week’s action at 154.42 (-11.41%~).

The action

The first half of Week 7 was controlled by the bulls, but the silent bears were setting up a trap that would soon deliver a devastating blow to their opponents.

The bulls attempted to break 180 on Tuesday and Wednesday, but failed miserably. The week’s high was recorded at 183.53 on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the exhausted bulls were forced to retreat when faced with a perfectly timed bear counterattack. The bears won a decisive battle by rejecting the bulls below the daily 50 EMA.

The bear troops proceeded to relentlessly assault 160 for 3 days in a row. By Sunday, the decimated bulls had to give that territory up too and relocate to 150 support.

The action closed at 154.42, concluding the week with a solid victory for the bears: +11.41%.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are struggling to stay above 150, as the bears are regrouping for another push.

The bulls are in denial at this point.

Let’s analyze the previous objectives:

The bulls have to take 180, whatever the costs. If needed, it’s okay to temporarily retreat to 160, regroup and come back for another round. No shame in that.

Tried, but failed to take 180. Also failed to clearly defend 160.

They might need to defend 160 soon, unless they can produce a golden cross on the 4H and use momentum in their favor to launch another 180 assault.

Failed: the bears managed to produce a deathcross on the 4H instead.

With only 7 days left until the monthly close, the bulls absolutely have to stay above the monthly 50 exponential in the 130-140 zone.

If they manage to defend the crucial support, retake 160 and then confidently close above 190, the previously reported targets would become viable again:

[..] prepare a 200 assault and then make plans for 220-230.

The bears are in a great position right now:

If the bears can push the action below 160 and trigger several death crosses on lower time frames, they should afford to resume offensive plans:

Check. Deathcrosses on most timeframes: 1H, 2H, 3H, 4H and the daily.

To recap: defend 180, take 160 and plan for 135 next.

Check/ongoing. This is exactly what happened: they easily defended 180, broke 160 on the third try and now they are planning the 135 decisive attack.

A bear victory in that area would be massive. The weekly and monthly charts are the last bull bastions. Break those supporting moving average zones and the bulls would be forced to defend 90-110 next.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are throwing everything they have at the resilient bear defense.

The bulls started the week at .004133 with a thirst for victory and with a clear purpose of producing a higher high/higher low pattern.

Although the bears kept displaying obvious signs of weakness throughout the week, the sustained bull attacks failed to deliver and the weekly high was recorded mid-week, on Wednesday, at .004213.

Bears defended the 4H EMA and kept pushing back until the weekly low was recorded at .003950 on Sunday.

The action finally closed at .004011, a -2.85% result for the bears.

The bulls are surely disappointed with the result, but there is still hope.

If the bulls can close above .00425 and push for a .044 win, the next targets are very clear [..]

They came very close to touching .00425 with the .004213 high.

If the bulls can defend .0039 and return to take control of .00425, previously reported targets should be within reach:

A close above .0044 would put .0048 and eventually .0054 on the map.

Bears are inching closer to victory.

A solid defence of .0042-43 around the daily 50 exponential moving average would keep .004 hopes alive.

Check. The bears managed to defend .0042 and the daily 50 EMA is untouched.

If they can keep riding the daily RSI momentum and stop the bulls from breaking above any of the hourly resistances, the next targets should become very clear:

If the bears can strike and retake .0039, they should be able to focus on .0038 next and .0035 eventually [..]

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.