14 Feb 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 6, 2022


XMR opened at 174.12 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), bottomed at 187.53 on Tuesday and closed the week’s action at 174.30 (+0.44%~).

The action

Week 6 was dominated by unconvincing bull attacks and anemic bear rejections. Both sides were more than happy to compromise and sacrifice big moves in favor of conservative results.

The bulls wasted two chances to break 180 on Tuesday and Thursday. The week’s high was recorded at 187.53 on Tuesday.

By Friday, the bears managed to push the action below the 180 level after bulls finally realized that the daily 50 EMA can not be pierced at this time.

The bulls rushed to defend 160 but the bear counter was so weak that it only touched 164.31 at the beginning of the weekend. That was the low point of the week.

The action closed at 174.30, concluding the week with a insignificant +0.44% result.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are actively defending the 4H 200 exponential just under 175.

The bulls need to regroup and strike again.

Their plan was clearly delayed:

After that the bulls have to flip 180 in order to reactivate offensive plans in the 200-240 range.

Denied. Time for plan B?

The bulls have to take 180, whatever the costs. If needed, it’s okay to temporarily retreat to 160, regroup and come back for another round. No shame in that.

They might need to defend 160 soon, unless they can produce a golden cross on the 4H and use momentum in their favor to launch another 180 assault.

If all goes well, previously reported targets should be on the map (200 > 230 > 250 > 300):

If victorious, just stay above that key level long enough to prepare a 200 assault and then make plans for 220-230.

A convincing close above 250 would be a very significant result that would open up a direct route to 300.

The bears are in a decent, but fragile position.

They did defend 180, but the performance was not very convincing:

A solid defense of 180 would actually be very bad for the bulls, so that should be top priority.

Done, but it was close. This perceived weakness might invite further bull presence in the area.

If the bears can push the action below 160 and trigger several death crosses on lower time frames, they should afford to resume offensive plans:

Using RSI divergences to time intelligent counterattacks would make 135-140 viable targets once more.

To recap: defend 180, take 160 and plan for 135 next.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the action is heating up with both sides struggling for dominance. No clear winners at this point.

The bulls started the week at .004097 with a positive attitude, happy to fight above the 2H 200 EMA.

Unfortunately for the bulls, they failed to touch .0043 and the weekly high was recorded on Tuesday, at .004236.

The bear counterattack forced a bull defense of .004. The weekly low was .003929, printed by bears on Saturday.

The action finally closed at .004129, sandwiched between 3H moving averages, for an inconclusive +0.86% result.

The bull campaign is being slowed down by resistances on all charts in the form of moving averages.

As previous reports stated, the bulls are close to a significant victory:

Best case scenario is the former (a close above .0041), which would open up previously reported targets [..]

Check. But it is too close to call.

If the bulls can close above .00425 and push for a .044 win, the next targets are very clear:

A close above .0044 would put .0048 and eventually .0054 on the map.

Bears need to defend and pay attention to counterattack opportunities.

A solid defence of .0042-43 around the daily 50 exponential moving average would keep .004 hopes alive.

Check. They did defend .0042 and now the daily RSI is curbing down.

If the bears can strike and retake .0039, they should be able to focus on .0038 next and .0035 eventually:

Use that resistance area to target .0038. A win at that level would expose .0035 to attacks [..]

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.