3 Jan 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 52, 2021


XMR opened at 217.33 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and bottomed at 202.38 on Wednesday before closing the week’s action at 239.35 (+10.5%~).

The action

A confident bull force kicked-off the last week of 2021 (Week 52) with a 230 blitz attack which triggered a frenetic bear counter-attack around 235 on Monday.

The angry bears mounted a convincing -6.5% rejection wick to the upside on the daily candle and they actually got close to breaking the 200 support mid-week.

However the bulls were paying attention and put the 4H 200 EMA to good use, as support.

Although the bears did print the weekly low at 202.38 on Wednesday, that wasn’t enough to prevent a golden cross from cascading to the 4H chart.

The bulls celebrated Saturday, the 1st of January 2022, by enjoying the week’s high at 252.42 after breaking 230 on their third attempt.

Bearish reinforcements arrived just in time to defend the daily 200 exponential MA and closed the weekly action at 239.35.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are looking to set up a temporary support zone around 220-230 to construct a higher low.

Bulls have done well for themselves by completing an important objective.

As previously reported:

If they can maintain the higher high/higher low bullish structure and cascade moving average crossovers from the 1H/2H to the 4H+, the bulls should soon get a chance to test 250.

Check. Exactly as planned.

A close above that important level could also lead to a death cross reversal on the daily and a bullish hammer on the monthly. That would be an amazing way to end the year and could also mean we get to see fights above the 300 level in January.

In progress.

If they can find a reliable support above 200-220, the bulls would definitely be on the right path to breaking 250 and could target 300 next.

A decisive win in that area would put the bulls in a great position to tackle 400-430, eventually.

The bears did their best, but it might not be enough.

As previously reported:

The bears should definitely take the fight and engage with everything they can if the bulls dare attack 250. That’s an important level to be defending. The bulls will need to flip that resistance in order to mount 300 attacks in the near future.

Check. But the area is still exposed.

It would be great if they could stop the bulls from advancing and breaking 250. If that’s not possible, they should definitely be denied access above 270 at all costs.

If they can keep the action close to 230 for long enough, the daily golden cross window will close for the bulls and that can give the bears an opportunity to strike 200.

Break that to create a wave failure and expose 180 again. Not easy, but possible.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the revitalized bullish campaign is starting to expose holes in bear defenses.

The week started at .004277 with both sides struggling to control the action.

On Wednesday, the bulls finally won a showdown just above the 2H 50 EMA. The bears couldn’t have possibly predicted the carnage that this apparently insignificant loss would soon trigger.

The bull assault continued until the last day of the week and due to little to no resistance, they victoriously printed the high at .005316 on Sunday.

The furious rally printed RSI divergences on most hourly charts and the bears took advantage of the exhausted bull forces to retake some recently lost territory with only hours left in the year.

The action closed at .005064 with a massive +18.51% result for the bulls.

The bulls look unstoppable at this point.

They are still working on the second part of the previously reported main objective:

They need to break .0048 and get close enough to .005. If they can flip that and close above the daily 200 EMA, .0055 could be the next target just under the weekly 50 moving average.

In progress, with 1/2 done.

Now all they have to do is make sure to reinforce .005 so it doesn’t fall into bear hands again.

A breakout above .006 could be massive as it might take the bulls on an exciting mission to .009-01. A win there should send the bears scattering to defend .014 next.

The bears have failed again, but they are still in it.

Bears have to defend the 4H 200 EMA and reject the bulls below .0041 if they want to get another shot at .0039.

Although they could not stop the bulls, as long as they defend .0055-56, it’s not game over.

They have to pressure the bulls into fighting below .005. A break under .0045 might be their only chance:

[..] they can fight in their normal sub-43 range again and take aim at .0039.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.