20 Dec 2021 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 50, 2021


XMR opened at 197.89 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and bottomed at 177.00 on Friday before closing the action at 183.75 (-7.2%~) to register the fifth consecutive week in the red.

The action

The first half of Week 50 had a familiar theme: bulls were struggling for air against never-ending suffocating bear attacks near the crucial 180 support.

On Wednesday the bulls had an opportunity to counter-attack and break 200, but unfortunately they got rejected at the 4H 50 EMA and had to retreat again.

By Friday both forces were totally exhausted but the bears did briefly pierce 180 to create the week’s low point at 177.00. Bulls closed the action at 183.75 for a bitter -7.2%.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are encountering some resistance at the hourly 200 exponential moving average around 185.

Bulls did not manage to break 200 and barely defended 180.

We are rapidly approaching the triangle apex and the bulls don’t have much time left to accomplish the previously reported objectives:

Unless they break out of the current bearish structure and close above 200 by printing a higher high, this week can and will get even worse. 180 is getting weaker and weaker with each bear attack and it won’t hold forever.

A lucky breakout would put the bulls in a position to test 220-230 first and then 250 if .618/.786 fib retracement levels aren’t strong enough.

The bears are still in a decent position as the weekly RSI is approaching bearish territory (around 38), but time is running out for everyone.

If they can actually break the stubborn bull defense with a convincing close under 180 and keep the action below that level for long enough, we will probably see a full bull retreat towards 140-150 in a desperate attempt to defend the monthly 50 EMA.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) there was no clear winner. Extreme signs of fatigue managed to corrupt the spirit of both bull and bear forces.

The week started at .003950 and the bears seemed eager to break .0039. On Thursday they were close to doing just that but got rejected at .0038. That was the week’s low.

The bull counter-attack that followed the same day prompted a quick bearish retreat above .004. The resistance held at .0041, the week’s high.

On Sunday the bulls were forced to defend .0039 once more. The bears closed the action at .003941 for an inconclusive -0.26% result.

The bulls need to break .0041.

The fact that they are already close to pulling off a 50/200 EMA crossover to the positive on the hourly is a good sign. If that happens, there’s a good chance they can cascade that event on higher time frames.

A higher high & higher low pattern would allow the bulls to close above .0043 and could take them all the way to .0048.

Bears have to defend the 4H 200 EMA and reject the bulls below .0041 if they want to get another shot at .0039.

Unfortunately, the RSI doesn’t look very promising on any relevant TF: it seems to be curbing up into neutral territory.

This means time is quickly running out. Previous reporting still stands:

If they don’t stall any longer and strike now with enough conviction, nothing can stop them. The bulls would probably have to retreat to .0034.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.