13 Dec 2021 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 49, 2021


XMR opened at 200.30 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and bottomed at 185.81 on Monday before touching the 213.99 high on Wednesday. The week closed at 198.12 (-1.2%~). This is the fourth consecutive week in the red.

The action

The bears started Week 49 with a blitz attack that got shut down immediately just above the critical 180 bull support area.

Midweek the bulls managed to put together a positional assault that was meant to break the 4H 50 EMA. However bearish reinforcements were expecting this move and blocked them under 215, at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

The second part of the week was dominated by the bears. They got another chance at testing 180 on Friday but the outnumbered bulls somehow managed to stay on their feet and defend the zone once more.

On Sunday the bulls got one final shot at breaking out of the descending triangle but the energy wasn’t there and the bearish forces got their lower high on the chart and closed the action at 198.21 (-1.2%~).

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are completely dominating the action, having pushed the price down dangerously close to the key bull support just above 180.

The bulls were aleardy in a world of trouble last week.

Unless they break out of the current bearish structure and close above 200 by printing a higher high, this week can and will get even worse. 180 is getting weaker and weaker with each bear attack and it won’t hold forever.

If a miracle happens and the bears drop the ball, the bulls should get another shot at reversing most of the damage and recapturing 220 is not impossible. The bears would be forced to defend 250 in that scenario.

The bears are in a good position. They are consistently mounting attacks in the vicinity of the 180 bull fortress.

Now all they have to do is actually break it and force a bitter bull retreat towards 150.

The weekly 200 EMA is a strong support and will probably be a rather tough nut to crack but the bears can deal with that when the time comes.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are starting to lose their motivation with each failed attack.

The week started at .004074 with a successful bull defense of the .0039 turned into a counterattack. The bears stopped them from attempting a .0043 assault on Wednesday with a nice rejection at the daily 50 EMA.

That was the week’s high: .004220.

On Thursday the constant bearish pressure finally paid off as they managed to paint the MACD red with a crossover to the negative side on the daily.

The very next day, the bulls were forced to defend .0039 again. The bears printed the week’s low at .003898 before closing the action at .003951 (-3%~).

The bulls still have a chance of winning on this front, but they need to regain their focus.

Objective number one should be a confident close above .0043. Then they can start constructing a HH/HL favorable pattern that could take them all the way to .0048.

Having the initiative is crucial, as the best defense is a good offense and they know .0039 can’t take much more heat.

Bears are ready to pull the trigger and capture .0039.

If they don’t stall any longer and strike now with enough conviction, nothing can stop them. The bulls would probably have to retreat to .0034.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.