29 Nov 2021 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 47, 2021


XMR opened at 250.2 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and dropped all the way to 217.8 on Friday to form the weekly low, before closing at 238 (-4.8%~).

The action

The bears took control of the action as soon as Week 47 started and easily defended 250 by denying a bull attempt to pierce through the daily 200 EMA.

Fleeing bulls found refuge at previous support around 225.

They didn’t have to wait too long for reinforcements: come Thursday, they got the chance to mount another 250 attack with fresh supplies.

Unfortunately, the bears saw that coming and the trap would cost their opponents dearly.

In less than 8 hours, bullish forces were devastaded. With no one left standing, the bears barbarously blitzed through and didn’t stop until 217 on Friday. That’s bull territory that they last visited in September.

The bears did lose some steam during the weekend and the bulls reacted by closing the action at -4.8%.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are desperately trying to defend the important weekly 50 EMA support.

The bulls need to prevent the daily deathcross that’s currently looming in the air.

They could start by flipping the 4H 50 EMA and then using it as support for yet another 250 attack.

If they are successful, that might trigger a positive crossover on the daily MACD, which would in turn open up 280 as a potential next target.

The bears did a good job last week and are certainly happy with the results. But that doesn’t mean they can just go back to hibernating.

If they can stop the bulls from further developing their HH/HL micro pattern just below 250, a close under 210 is not out of the question.

A move with enough volume behind it might see the bears knocking on the gates of the 180 bull fortress next.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) both bull and bear forces are showing signs of extreme fatigue as the brawling space is tightening.

The week started at .004276 with bears defending .0043. Bulls attempted to brute force the area three times this week, on Wednesday, Thursday and Sunday.

Although the bulls did manage to connect with reinforcements at .004 on every occasion, none of their campaigns succeeded.

The action closed at .004177 (-2.3%~), sandwiched between the familiar 50 & 200 moving averages on the 4H.

The bulls are aware of what they have to do: win .0043 and do it this week, while the bears are still weak.

As reported last time, if they are victorious:

[..] they should at least get a shot to fight for .0045/47 next.

Bears need to stop wasting resources and combine all efforts in one big push aimed at breaking .004.

Previous reporting still stands:

Next time, if they manage a strong close under .0039, they should keep the action under that price if they want to make a play for .0034 this year.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.