22 Nov 2021 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 46, 2021


XMR opened at 274.9 (Hitbtc XMR-USDT) and dipped to 224.2 on Thursday to form the weekly low, before closing at 250.4 (-8.9%~).

The action

Week 46 was a nightmare for the bulls. The bears managed to catch them by surprise and interrupted a weak bullish attempt at a higher high just under 280.

Tuesday was probably the bloodiest day of the week. The critical bear attacks left behind lots of cascading deathcrosses on the hourly, 2H, 4H, 6H and even the 12H. The last time that happened was 2 months ago, in September.

The bulls did briefly attempt to defend the 250 support, but quickly retreated after realizing that any resistance would be futile in that zone.

By Friday, the bearish thirst was finally quenched. Althought the bulls did avoid total annihilation by barely rejecting the bears at the 50 weekly EMA, it was clear to everyone that the damage was already done: the daily MACD negative crossover will take some time to reverse.

The action closed at just -8.9%, but that’s only because the bears decided to take a breather. If they would have pushed more, the end result would probably be at least -20% for the week.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are looking for an opportunity to counter-attack under the hourly 200 EMA, but they look rather confused and disconnected from reality.

The bulls really need to try and reverse the situation, and do it quickly.

The first target has to be 250: if they can capture that zone and use it as local support, the bears might reconsider their all-in move and focus on defense instead.

That would, by itself, buy some time for the bull reinforcements to arrive. Then they can start to undo some of the damage with a couple of golden crosses.

Provided all that happens, 280 would stop looking like a dot in the night sky and bulls can hopefully resume their offensive campaign.

The bears defended 280 and were very close to a succesful close under 250, as reported previously:

The bears have to quit playing with their food, stop reacting and take the initiative: defend 280 right now and push for a close under 250.

All they have to do now is keep the action under the weekly 50 exponential moving average and work on that lower low.

A confident close under 210 is not a dream anymore and if they pull it off, we could see 180 sooner rather than later.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are hanging on for dear life in the face of an exhausted bear army.

The week started at .00419650 with bear strikes around the .004 zone. On Wednesday they barely managed to print a lower low of .00390868.

Fortunately for the bulls, the RSI was telling a different story and exposed some weakness in the bear move with a clear divergence on the daily.

The bulls jumped at the opportunity to close the action at .00427646 (+1.9%~). Not a big win, but that rejection save them from a -7% result.

If the bulls can win .0043, they should at least get a shot to fight for .0045/47 next. The bears don’t look that strong and this is when they need to take the point.

Bears need to pull themselves together if they are to prevent what looks like potential golden crosses on the horizon. Next time, if they manage a strong close under .0039, they should keep the action under that price if they want to make a play for .0034 this year.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.