15 Nov 2021 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 45, 2021


XMR opened at 266.56 (Kraken XMR-USD) and formed a top on Tuesday at 293.81, before closing the week at 275.01 (+3.1%~).

The action

Week 45 was a roller coaster. The bulls started the action by taking advantage of the 1H & 2H golden crosses. That allowed them to mount a quick attack on the 300 resistance.

The promising bullish initiative was promptly rejected by determined bears on Wednesday, immediately after the RSI touched overbought territory.

The bulls were forced to retreat and adopt a defensive stance. Although the bears did their best to capture 250, it didn’t happen: bullish reinforcements arrived just in the nick of time, on Saturday, and managed to withstand the attack.

On the very last day of the week, the bulls pulled off a nice recovery and closed the action slightly in their favour (+3%).

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are trying to construct a HH/HL pattern on the hourly before potentially attempting to break 280 again.

The bulls have only accomplished 1/2 of what they had to, as reported previously:

Bulls have to push for a quick break above 280 and then at least keep the action close to the 300 resistance.

Although the bulls managed to quickly break 280, they couldn’t keep the action close to 300 for long enough to be a real threat for the bears.

If they want to attack 320-340, the bulls have to gather momentum and try again. Stay close to 300 and push with conviction. It should break, eventually.

Granted, the bears didn’t disappoint when it comes to defensive capabilities.

But how many more attacks can they reject before the bulls get their hands on 300?

The bears have to quit playing with their food, stop reacting and take the initiative: defend 280 right now and push for a close under 250.

Previous reporting still stands:

Bears need to keep pushing for a close under 260 to stop the micro higher high trend that the bulls have started. Then they can attack 250 with everything they have.

A close under 235 should certainly trigger a 200-210 bull retreat.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) it looks like the bulls have barely managed to stop the bears from advancing further into the danger zone. For now.

The week started at .00421146 and there were no major events until Saturday. That’s when the bulls attempted a very hopeful attack that barely pinged the daily 50 EMA and formed the week’s high at .00477. That’s the first time they touch that moving average in over 46 days.

In the end, the bears closed the action at .00419857 (-0.3%~). Stalemate.

If the bulls can orchestrate more fights above .004, they might eventually get a chance to break .0047 and focus on .0053-55 next.

Bears need to stop the bulls from creating a higher high/higher low pattern on lower time frames. They can start by preventing the 4H golden cross and then they can attack .004 and make plans for capturing .0034.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.