8 Nov 2021 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 44, 2021


XMR opened at 275.00 (Kraken XMR-USD) and bottomed on Wednesday at 249.00, before closing the week at 266.57 (-3%~).

The action

Although Week 44 started indecisively, the bears eventually managed to take full control of the action on Wednesday.

Bulls had to endure continuous assaults from the revitalized bear army. The bears overturned positive EMA crossovers (50/200) on several charts, including: 1, 2, 4 and 6H.

Just when the bearish cascading effect was starting to look insurmountable, Sunday came.

That was the day when bulls had enough of it and started to take advantage of the RSI divergences to push back against the now arrogant bears.

What could have easily been a 10% loss for the bulls, ended in a mere 3% weekly close in favour of the bears.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are fighting to undo some of the damage with an hourly golden cross around 270.

Last week, the bulls decided to retreat and fight the bears around the crucial 250 support zone, instead of attacking.

The bears must not be allowed to test that fragile outpost again this week, otherwise the bulls will certainly regret their decision.

Bulls have to push for a quick break above 280 and then at least keep the action close to the 300 resistance.

Winning 300 would be a much needed psychological victory for the bulls. At that point, 320-340 would be exposed and the bears might not have a good answer for that.

The bearish campaign was quite impressive.

They managed to almost accomplish all of their objectives:

Although everything seems to be working good for the bears, they should not allow the bulls any considerable rest periods.

Yes. The bulls didn’t get a chance to do much last week, thanks to repeated ruthless bearish attacks.

Bears need to keep pushing for a close under 260 to stop the micro higher high trend that the bulls have started. Then they can attack 250 with everything they have.

Very close indeed. They managed to close within visual range of 260.

All they have to do now is defend 280 and force the bulls to retreat at 250 yet again, for the n’th time.

A close under 235 should certainly trigger a 200-210 bull retreat.

Absolutely. Since bullish reinforcements are very far away, a blitz bear attack might just do the trick and probably crush outpost 250. If that happens, the bears will get the chance to fight for 235 and 200 next.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) bears are dominating the action and it looks like the bulls aren’t even attempting to stand in their way.

The week started at .00448355: the bulls gave up on .0045 after being denied a simple 1H golden cross. They decided to retreat around .004 in preparation for imminent bear attacks.

Bears managed another familiar -5.8%~ .00421469 weekly close.

It looks like the bulls have put themselves in a position where they absolutely need to defend .004 again if they don’t want to retreat all the way to 0.0034. However, if a miracle happens and they manage to print a higher high by breaking .0046, then an attack on .005 might be feasible.

Bears have done everything right and it seems like they are almost ready to assault .0034. That zone might prove to be a tough nut to crack, as it is effectively a bull stronghold. If bears win, it’s going down in bear history books. What’s next, 0.002? 0.001? Not sure bulls want to even consider that possibility.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.