1 Nov 2021 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 43, 2021


XMR opened at 289.13 (Kraken XMR-USD) and bottomed on Wednesday at 250.06, before closing the week at 274.50 (-5%~).

The action

The enthusiastic bulls got shutdown immmediately after the start of Week 43. This was their second attempt to pierce 300 this month (October) with a similar outcome: bears showed up and defended easily.

Bears forced a MACD crossover and some histogram downticks on the daily and took control of the RSI to display a bearish divergence on the 6H chart. That’s when bulls knew they had to give up their current attacking stance and retreat.

The next few days were completely dominated by the bears, as they managed to follow the bulls all the way to 250.

Fortunately for the bulls, come Thursday, the bears ran out of supplies and decided to opt for a tactical retreat. This gave the bulls a chance to retaliate and avoid disaster with a weekly close worth only -5%.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears have engaged the bulls around the .618 fib retracement level (~275-280).

Last week’s analysis still stands:

With the gained momentum from last week’s campaign, they now need to gather all forces and break 320-340.

The bulls need to attack and, this time, confidently pierce and capture the 300 bear fortress.

This would have two positive outcomes: leave the 320-340 area open to an assault and also keep the bears occupied and not planning more elaborate attacks on the crucial 240-250 support zone.

And if everything works according to plan:

[..] the ~517 ATH is within reach indeed.

The bears are doing OK so far, as reported:

It would be very unwise to give up 300 and they really need to defend the 340 level if there’s any hope of stopping the now highly motivated bulls.

Confirmed. That was a good defense of the 300 zone.

Any small victory would be great at this point and keeping the price under critical levels for prolonged periods of time should exhaust the bulls and must be their priority.

Although everything seems to be working good for the bears, they should not allow the bulls any considerable rest periods.

Bears need to keep pushing for a close under 260 to stop the micro higher high trend that the bulls have started. Then they can attack 250 with everything they have.

A close under 235 should certainly trigger a 200-210 bull retreat.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls have been engaged by incoming .0045 bear reinforcements.

The week started at .00474881 close to last week’s high: the bears attack just below the 4H 200 EMA stopped the bullish forces from advancing.

Outnumbered bulls had to retreat and settle for a -5.7% weekly close at .00447828.

Bulls need to defend .0043-0045 if they want to print a higher low. A break above .00475 might give them a chance to take out the .005 resistance area at the 50 daily EMA.

Bears have discouraged the bulls from attempting a .005 attack with their successful .00475 defense. The only thing left standing in the way of a .0039 attack is a close under .0042.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/