25 Oct 2021 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 42, 2021


XMR opened at 261.08 (Kraken XMR-USD) and created a bottom at 250.14 on Wednesday, before closing the week at 289.12 (+10.8%~).

The action

The bears already had control of the action from the previous period. The first part of Week 42 was dominated by their continuous assaults targeting the 250 zone.

Although they did manage to briefly cascade the 1H and 2H deathcrosses to the 4H, that was countered very quickly by the bulls mid-week.

By the end of the week, bears started to retreat, sensing the ambush ahead. But it was already too late: the bulls timed the attack just right for a glorious weekly close.

Sunday’s bullish engulfing candle and the daily MACD histogram uptick couldn’t be stopped by the baffled bears.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are dealing with some bearish push back around the 300 resistance zone.

Bulls did exactly what they had to, as reported last week:

The bulls need to defend 230-250 and reject the bears (preferably at the 200 daily EMA).

Spot on. Rejected at the 200 daily EMA (~250).

[..] a higher low would essentially force the bears to retreat at 280-300 again.

Yep, check. We are here right now. Bears showed up to defend 300.

With the gained momentum from last week’s campaign, they now need to gather all forces and break 320-340.

If they are successful, the ~517 ATH is within reach indeed.

Bears did their best, almost touching 250, but that wasn’t enough. They needed to clearly pierce 240, as reported:

If bears continue pushing until the deathcrosses cascade to higher timeframes, they could easily close under 240 with conviction.

It would be very unwise to give up 300 and they really need to defend the 340 level if there’s any hope of stopping the now highly motivated bulls.

Any small victory would be great at this point and keeping the price under critical levels for prolonged periods of time should exhaust the bulls and must be their priority.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are finally starting to fight back and force the bears to take their foot off the gas.

The week started at .00424307 with familiar action patterns: the bulls retreating under heavy bearish fire. The bears almost broke .0039 but Thursday came with a surprising bullish counterattack which caught them totally off-guard.

That was enough to give them full control over the second half of the week. Price closed at .00438257 (+12.2%).

Bulls need to keep the action above .0045 and they will get a chance to break .005 and close above the daily 50 EMA. Reversing a couple of deathcrosses should be within sight at that point (.0055-58).

Bears shouldn’t panic, as we are still very much in their territory. All they need to do is defend .005 and form a lower high. Then they should be able to easily mount another .0039 zone attack.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/