18 Oct 2021 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 41, 2021


XMR opened at 269.50 (Kraken XMR-USD) and created a top at 282.75 on Wednesday, before closing the week at 260.92 (-3.2%~).

The action

Bulls kicked off Week 41 with a simple plan: stall long enough, until the arrival of reinforcements. They got a couple of small wins which pushed the price towards the 280 resistance area again.

This tactic was rather efficient in keeping the bears in a tight range and away from attacking key zones.

However, the bears did manage to take control of the action on Wednesday and never gave it up until the end of the week.

A few significant wins which resulted in deathcrosses on the hourly and 2H timeframes and a MACD crossover to the downside on the daily ended the week’s action in bearish territory.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears seem pretty confident in their push towards 240 and a 4H deathcross (50/200 EMA) looks iminent.

The bulls need to defend 230-250 and reject the bears (preferably at the 200 daily EMA).

If that happens, a higher low would essentially force the bears to retreat at 280-300 again. Previous resistance zones around 320-340 would be open for future attacks at that point.

If bears continue pushing until the deathcrosses cascade to higher timeframes, they could easily close under 240 with conviction.

Potential attacks on 180-200 are definitey on the table, provided the bulls continue to show weakness.

Other fronts

No surprises on the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC): bears still in full control, bulls at peak desperation.

The week started at .00493973 and the bulls tried to defend for the first two days, but only managed to print 1 single green daily candle on Tuesday before getting overwhelmed by bears. Price closed at .00423692 (-13.6%).

If bulls cannot mount a solid defense next week, we will surely revisit the .0035-0040 yearly support zone next.

A bear victory at those levels with a close under .0034 would open up a long, but straight path to the ATL from 2015 (0.00097) and at the same time represent a legendary defeat for the bulls.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/