11 Oct 2021 | Updated 13 Oct 2021 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 40, 2021


XMR opened at 259 (Kraken XMR-USD) and formed a high at 296.16 on Thursday, before closing the week at 270.29 (+4.5%~).

The action

The first part of Week 40 was fully controlled by the bulls. They managed to mount a solid attack around the 280-300 resistance zone, as planned.

On Thursday, however, the bears executed a successful counter-attack on a 4H RSI divergence. That was enough to stop the bulls from advancing any further, after the impressive ~15% rally into their territory.

The week closed with a note of uncertainty, as the bulls started to retreat after losing momentum in the second half.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are starting to apply more pressure, potentially looking to start off the week with a 1H deathcross.

The bulls will probably wait for reinforcements, which should arrive around 250-260. They need to defend that zone and force the bears to print a higher low in the process.

If they mangage to end the week without major incidents, another go at 280-300 is possible. Then bulls can plan for their next target, which would be the previous resistance zones around 320-340.

Although the previous week ended in the green, the bears did exactly what they had to do in order to avoid disaster by defending 300.

A few deathcrosses are possible this week on key timeframes like the hourly and 4H. If they can do that and force the bulls to retreat with a close under 240, all bullish plans would be delayed for the near future and the bears can then potentially attack 180-200.

Other fronts

Another bloody week for the bulls on the BTC front (Bitfinex XMR-BTC), where bears seem to be unstoppable from their march towards this year’s low at 0.0034265.

The week started at .0053723 and the bears managed to print 6 red candles since Tuesday. Price closed at .0049430 (-8%).

At the time of this report the bears are still applying pressure and the bulls are desperately attempting to mount a defense around .0047. If nothing changes, we could revisit the .0035-0040 support zone from the beginning of the year sooner rather than later.

Update: removed ATL reference; will replace Bitfinex with something like Poloniex in future, to reports to get access to older XMR-BTC data.

New: Added ‘Other fronts’ section with XMR-BTC reporting. Should this be a regular thing? Let me know.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/