31 Jan 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 4, 2022


XMR opened at 155.95 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), bottomed at 134.32 on Monday and closed the week’s action at 147.87 (-5.55%~).

The action

Week 4 started with a continuation bear attack that was aimed at breaking 135. The bulls barely managed to defend the weekly 200 EMA.

Monday’s 134.32 was the week’s low.

The bulls started taking advantage of multiple RSI divergences (1-4H) to mount counterattacks in the second half.

On Wednesday they almost touched 160 but got rejected at the 50 exponential on the 2H.

The exhausted bears did their best to fragment the game over the weekend and closed the action at 147.87 for an inconclusive -5.55% result.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, both forces are struggling to take control of 140.

The bulls are yet to show any real sign of strength.

They did, however, manage to almost touch 160 by riding RSI divergences, as previously reported:

If they can take advantage of the cocky bears and the RSI divergences on several charts, they should be able to target 160 soon.

Check. But they still need to actually break 160 before thinking of 180:

After that the bulls have to flip 180 in order to reactivate offensive plans in the 200-240 range.

Pending. Same objectives still stand, but they can’t delay the offensive campaign much longer.

The bears look rather tired.

Although they did defend 160, there is no time for rest.

If they can take advantage of the monthly bearish engulfing candle that is about to close in a matter of hours, previous targets should be on the map:

If the bears can close below the monthly 50 EMA, 95-120 territory should be their next target.

But if they fail and can’t pierce the monthly 50 EMA, they will probably be forced to retreat and defend 180-200 instead.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the constant bearish pressure is starting to affect their opponents.

The bears kicked-off the week at .004320 and [spoiler alert] pretty much controlled the action for the entire period.

The bulls had to give up .0044 offensive plans to prioritize defending the psychological .004 level.

Insistent bears managed to keep most of the action below that level and even kissed .00385 on Tuesday.

There simply was not enough space for the bulls to build any kind of relevant bounce and the hourly 50 EMA did act as a decent resistance.

The action closed at .003900 for a consitent -9.59% result for the bears.

The bulls need to wake up, fast.

However, if they can stop the bears from pushing the action below .004, they should get a chance to strike back.


Whatever happens, the bears should not be allowed to play around the .0038 danger zone.

Failed. We are in the danger zone right now.

The bulls have two choices:

a) defend .0038 and quickly go all-in on .004 with everything they have right now


b) concede, retreat towards .0035 and hopefully rendezvous with reinforcements

Best case scenario is the former (a close above .0041), which would open up previously reported targets:

A close above .0044 would put .0048 and eventually .0054 on the map.

Bears have done well for themselves:

Well, they probably want to: a) close under .004, b) strike .0038 and c) flip .0035.

2/3 completed: if they can flip .0035, the bulls will be in a world of pain:

It probably won’t be easy, but if they are victorious, we could see sub-.003 action soon.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.