Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 39, 2022
Overview
XMR opened at 141.12 (Kraken XMR-USD) and peaked at 152.84 on Tuesday and Saturday before closing the week’s action at 137.15 (-2.95%~).
The action
Week 39 action was heavily focused on the daily 50 EMA resistance around 150 until the very last minute.
A promising golden cross on the hourly allowed the bulls to target 150 with an early blitz attack that was confidently blocked on Tuesday, after pinging 152.84.
Despite a clear ~8% rejection, the greens connected with reinforcements at 140 and launched a sustained follow-up attack that briefly pierced 150 on Friday and touched the 152.84 top once more, on Saturday.
After clear RSI divergences, bearish forces timed a strong counterattack that finally broke the 140 support and registered the period’s bottom at 136.65 on Sunday.
The action closed at 137.15, with a small -2.95% win for the bears.
Potential scenarios
As I am writing this report, the bulls are trying to recapture 140.
- Bullish scenario
The bulls are having a lot of trouble staying in the macro battle.
As previously reported:
The bull campaign should focus on clearing the daily 50 EMA (~150) and weekly 200/monthly 50 EMAs (~155) resistance cluster next.
Failed. The bulls wasted another set of good opportunities to conquer 150 and push the action above the daily 50 exponential.
If the bulls can defend the key 135 support, they might get another shot at clearing the resistance cluster, attempt a higher high close above 150, and reactivate the previously reported objectives:
Victory would put the bulls in a solid position to target the 170 resistance and that event could lead to a daily golden cross and expose the 200 critical bear resistance to future attacks.
- Bearish scenario
The bears are in a great position to deliver a devastating blow to their opponents.
As previously reported:
Stopping the bulls from doing damage above 150 could put 135 back on the table and enable skirmishes inside the 115-135 support perimeter.
Check/in progress. The bears managed to deny any significant bull activity above 150 and almost pinged the support with their 136.65 bottom.
If the bears could produce a confident close below 135, they should get a clear shot at 115 next. Break that to expose the psychological 100 support level next.
Other fronts
On the BTC front (Kraken XMR-BTC) the bulls finally ran out of steam and were forced to give up control over the daily 50 exponential support line.
The week started at .007505 with the first in a series of bull attacks targeting .0076. The bears blocked the initiative and forced their opponents to retreat back below .0075 on Tuesday.
On Thursday, a determined bull unit pushed deeper into enemy territory and successfully pierced the resistance cluster to register the period’s top at precisely .0078.
The greens managed to keep the action above .0075 and maintain constant pressure on red forces stationed around .0077 until the very last day.
On Sunday, a furious counterattack surprised bull defenders and broke the daily 50 EMA around .0073. The ~7% rally triggered a death cross on the hourly that was going to cascade to the 2H chart just before the bell.
The action closed at .007195, registering a convincing -4.28% bear win.
Potential scenarios
As I am writing this report, the bulls are trying to stop a death cross from cascading to the 4H.
- Bullish scenario
The bulls need to quickly recapture the daily 50 exponential or retreat and switch to a more defensive mode.
As previously reported:
A confident close above .0076 should expose the .008 top.
Failed. The bulls were unable to reach .008 and they also lost the advanced support position.
Unless the bulls flip back .0073, they could be forced to retreat all the way back to the .0064-66 support perimeter around the daily 200 exponential.
A fortunate close above .0076 should expose .008 and might reignite the macro battle:
[..] the weekly 200 EMA below .009 and the monthly 50 EMA around .0093.
- Bearish scenario
The bears temporarily prevented the bull invasion, but there is still a lot of work to do.
As previously reported:
If the bears could force the action back below .0074 until the monthly closes in ~4 days, they might get another shot at flipping .00715.
Check/in progress. The bears won the showdown and .00715 is now fully exposed.
If the bears can keep the action below .0073 for a few more days, they should be able to reverse the 4H golden cross and focus on breaking the .0066-64 bull position next.
A confident close under the weekly 50 exponential around .00616 could expose .0055 in the near future.
Note: Kraken is used for the high amount of historical data points.
This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.
Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.
-escapethe3RA