27 Sep 2021 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 38, 2021


Last week, XMR opened at 260.19 (Kraken XMR-USD), dropped to 212.62 (-18.5%~) on Tuesday and the weekly close was at 234.55 (-10%~).

Price has dropped below the daily 200 EMA. The weekly 50 EMA is still supporting, for now.

The action

Bears took control of the action as soon as Week 38 started by printing a three black crows candle formation on the 4H chart. For the first half of the week the bulls were nowhere to be found.

The bulls were regrouping slightly below the weekly 50 EMA in the 210-225 zone.

By the end of the week, when bears started to lose steam, the bulls managed to avoid disaster and save face with a ~10% rejection candle that closed above the low.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are still in control but price hasn’t moved much yet.

The bulls need to defend the weekly support zone at the 50 EMA (~225) and prevent a death cross on the daily to stop the bears from advancing further.

A close above both daily EMA’s (50 & 200) would open up the road to 280 and pontentially give them another shot at breaking the resistance located around the 330 region.

Best case scenario, they manage to break the lower low bearish pattern and escape the descending triangle. That would be a huge victory.

Bears have momentum on their side. All they have to do is continue applying pressure until the bulls start waving the white flag.

As mentioned in previous reports:

A strong close under 240 is every bear’s wet dream that would leave the road to the previous support region at the 170-190 zone wide open.

All they have to do now is try and actually close under 240 and then push the price under the weekly 50 EMA at around 225, which is an important bull support zone.

They did manage to close under 240 (234.55), but barely. There is still work to do.

If they keep pushing until the death cross happens, bulls might get demoralized and possibly be forced to retreat to the previous support zone around 170-190.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/