19 Sep 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 37, 2022


XMR opened at 159.35 (Kraken XMR-USD) and peaked at 166.47 on Monday before closing the week’s action at 140.49 (-11.76%~).

The action

Week 37 was dominated by the bears who managed to push the action below the key weekly 200 exponential for the 3rd time this year.

A timid bull attack that pierced 160 on Monday was intercepted and blocked by bear forces the very next day around 165. 166.47 marked the period’s high point.

The 3H RSI divergence triggered a sudden bear counterattack. The ~12% red wave caught the bulls by surprise and ended up crushing moving average support lines on every single chart.

Bull artillery units temporarily stopped the enemy on Wednesday around 145.

The greens failed twice to flip back 150 and retake the initiative, mid-week, and on Saturday, just below the 4H 50 exponential resistance.

Backed by clear death crosses on most hourly charts, bear mechanized infantry buttered through the 145 support with a big ~4% bearish engulfing candle on the very last day.

The bell interrupted the bear assault at 140.49 to record the clear -11.76% victory for the reds.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are struggling to recover from a menacing 135 ping.

The bulls need to recapture and secure 140 in order to avoid domestic backlash.

As previously reported:

If the bulls could flip 160 to support, they might get an opportunity to close above 175/180 [..]

Failed. The bulls only managed to stay in the fight for 160 for the first 48 hours and the deeper resistance zones were totally unreachable.

If the bulls could deny bear access below 130 and flip 145 very soon, they should be able to target the monthly 50 EMA resistance line around 150 next.

A confident close above the 4H 50 EMA should reverse all hourly death crosses and reignite the macro battle for the weekly 200 exponential below 160.

Any higher high above 170 could trigger a solid bull run.

The bears are very close to securing a massive win.

As previously reported:

Provided the bears can stop green activity above 170, they should get a chance to counterattack and flip back 155.

Check. The bears did it: bulls were unable to penetrate 166.47 on Tuesday and 155 is now red territory.

Close below 140 to restart the red offensive campaign and expose targets in the 115-135 support zone.

Failed/in progress. Although the bell did temporarily pause the action at 140.49, the bears forced the action below the support immediately after that. Targets in the adjacent green zone are totally exposed at the moment.

If the bears can stay in control of 140, they should be able to target critical infrastructure around 135.

Clear the 115-135 bull defensive perimeter to expose the psychological 100 support level.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Kraken XMR-BTC) the bulls are not ready to give up on their daily 50 exponential support line despite around-the-clock bear strikes targeting .00715.

The week started at .007302 with three failed bull attempts at breaking above .0074.

After pinging .00715 twice in response, the bears were finally forced to retreat to the safety of .0075 on Wednesday.

Bullish forces used the new 4H 200 EMA support around .0073 to strike .0075 at the beginning of the weekend. The period’s high point was registered on Saturday at .007633.

On Sunday, the bears retaliated by piercing .0073, which delayed a 2H golden cross.

The bulls managed to defend the .00715 support for a third time this week.

The action closed at .007229, registering a tiny -1.46% bear victory.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are very close to confirming a death cross on the 3H.

The bulls are not doing so bad, despite the negative result.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can keep the action above .00715, they should be able to use the daily 50 exponential support to launch another .0076 attack.

Check/in progress. The greens did well to deny bear access below the important .00715 support all week and printed the top at .007633 on Saturday.

Provided the bulls can stay above the daily 50 exponential, they should be able to strike at the resistance again in the near future.

Flip .0076 to target .0078 next and then move on to the previously reported objectives:

A confident close above .008 should expose the weekly 200 EMA below .009 and the monthly 50 EMA around .0093.

The bears need a bigger win but the window of opportunity is rapidly closing.

As previously reported:

If the bears can pierce .00715, they might be able to target .0066 next [..]

Failed/in progress. All attempts to breake the green position at .00715 have failed so far.

The bears need to cascade death crosses to the 3/4H charts and strike at the 50 EMA support until it breaks.

A strong close below .00715 could trigger a .0066 bull retreat and potentially expose the daily 200 exponential around .0063.

Note: Kraken is used for the high amount of historical data points.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.