20 Sep 2021 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 37, 2021


Last week, XMR opened at 256.21 (Kraken XMR-USD), peaked at 283.99 on Thursday and the weekly close was at 260.12.

A general feeling of uncertainty has been dominating.

The action

Having flashbacks to the previous week’s unfortunate campaign, the bulls started Week 37 with a clear plan: attack the daily 50 EMA located around 270-280. A successfull penetration of that resistance zone could have potentially triggered a rally all the way to the descending triangle resistance at 300-310.

The bulls managed to touch the moving average for 6 days (except Friday). They finally lost steam towards the end of the week. The highest they got was the 283.99 peak.

As anticipated in the previous report, the bears were expecting this kind of move and rejected the bulls repeatedly, essentially denying them any significant movement space.

They printed a nice bearish candle with a long (~6%) wick to the upside on Thursday and that’s when it was pretty clear who is in control.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears have managed to pierce both the daily 200 EMA support and the descending triangle with what looks like a bearish engulfing candle in the making.

The bulls need to close today’s candle above 250 and somehow turn this candle around. If that’s not doable, they absolutely have to at least defend the weekly support zone at the 50 EMA (~225).

If they somehow, miraculously, manage to pull off a close above the daily 200 EMA, there is still a lot of work to do, as they would still be sandwiched between the 50 & 200 EMAs. Another attempt at breaking both, essentially what they failed to do last week, is what they will have to prepare for after that.

Bears did precisely what they had to, essentially they have accomplished the first task listed in my previous report and the second one is currently in progress:

Bears need to show up and reject the bulls either at the 50 EMA or at the triangle resistance in order to maintain the lower low pattern.


A strong close under 240 is every bear’s wet dream that would leave the road to the previous support region at the 170-190 zone wide open.

In progress.

All they have to do now is try and actually close under 240 and then push the price under the weekly 50 EMA at around 225, which is an important bull support zone.

If they can keep the price under that level long enough, the bears will most probably get the chance to properly time and mount the 170-190 zone attack.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/