12 Sep 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 36, 2022


XMR opened at 155.80 (Kraken XMR-USD) and bottomed at 141.55 on Wednesday before closing the week’s action at 159.22 (+2.21%~).

The action

Week 36 action was very intense as neither side was fully prepared to give up control over the key weekly 200 exponential around 155.

A bull attack targeting 160 was easily blocked by bear defenders on Tuesday at 159.99.

The bear counter was strong enough to pierce moving average support levels on every chart.

Bull reinforcements intercepted the move just above the 140 support and managed to stop the bleeding at ~11% the very next day. The week’s low point was registered at 141.55 on Wednesday.

By Saturday, thanks to speculative bull efforts, most of the death crosses were successfully reversed and the bears were forced to retreat all the way back above the 160 resistance. 161.90 was the top.

The action closed at 159.22, with a small +2.21% win for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are struggling to defend 160.

The bulls are still in the fight, but they need to print a higher high soon.

As previously reported:

Although the bull campaign is now supported by the daily 50 EMA, the greens still need to secure the 200 weekly and 50 monthly exponentials.

Check/in progress. The bulls barely managed to push the action back above these key levels, but all three macro moving averages are still disputed territory.

If the bulls can pierce 160 and close above 175 (preferably 180) [..]

Failed/in progress. The bulls came very close to the 160 resistance on Tuesday and temporarily pierced the level on Saturday, but that’s about it.

If the bulls could flip 160 to support, they might get an opportunity to close above 175/180 and that should expose the 200 psychological level.

The bears are fighting back hard but the results aren’t convincing.

As previously reported:

The reds want to keep the action below 170, ideally under 155. [..] A clean close below 140 could trigger a bull retreat [..]

Failed. The bears orchestrated an impressive rally, but that was blocked at 141.55 on Wednesday. They also failed to secure 155/160.

Provided the bears can stop green activity above 170, they should get a chance to counterattack and flip back 155.

Close below 140 to restart the red offensive campaign and expose targets in the 115-135 support zone.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Kraken XMR-BTC) the bears finally got some breathing room after punishing a clear bull overextension.

The week started at .007800 with a bullish attempt to break the .008 resistance that was blocked on Tuesday. .008011 was going to be the week’s high point.

Just hours after that move, the bears took advantage of RSI divergences on several hourly charts to initiate their counterattack.

The bulls managed to maintain an advanced support position around the 4H 50 EMA until Friday when the reds finally captured 0.0076.

Bear forces continued to push deeper into enemy territory, and started focusing on their next target: the 4H 200 exponential support below .0072.

The bell temporarily interrupted the action at .007336 to register the first bear win in 4 weeks: -5.71%.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are closing in on the daily 50 EMA around .0072.

The bulls are looking for a higher low to refuel their offensive campaign.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can finish the job by taking control of .008, they should be able to target the weekly 200 EMA below .009 next.

Failed. The bulls pinged the resistance for the first time since June 2021, but the .008011 peak was short-lived.

If the bulls can keep the action above .00715, they should be able to use the daily 50 exponential support to launch another .0076 attack.

A confident close above .008 should expose the weekly 200 EMA below .009 and the monthly 50 EMA around .0093.

The bears can’t afford to celebrate minor victories at this point.

As previously reported:

If the bears could punish the overextended bull force by promptly acting on eventual RSI divergences [..] (2 weeks)

Check. The bears did well to spot RSI divergences and managed to execute a nicely timed counterattack that prevented the bulls from taking control of .008.

Flipping .0075 to resistance might give the bears a clear shot at reversing some golden crosses and could expose the .007 support. (last week)

Check/in progress. The action is now below .0075 and death crosses are starting to appear on lower hourly charts.

If the bears can pierce .00715, they might be able to target .0066 next and potentially reignite the fight for the daily 200 EMA around .0062.

Note: Kraken is used for the high amount of historical data points.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.