5 Sep 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 35, 2022


XMR opened at 146.40 (Kraken XMR-USD) and peaked at 156.57 on Sunday before closing the week’s action at 155.77 (+6.40%~).

The action

Week 35 action was dominated by a slow and methodical bullish advance towards the 155 resistance.

Bear forces switched to defensive mode after their attack move was intercepted and blocked on Monday near 145.

Even though they were under heavy artillery fire, the bulls managed to consistently establish slightly higher lows and produced an hourly golden cross mid-week, which cascaded to the 2H on Sunday.

No real counterattack opportunities were available to the reds, as the bull tactics preserved the RSI inside the normal range for the entire period.

The action closed at 155.77, with a well deserved +6.40% result for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are looking for support above 155.

The bulls are doing better, but the macro timeframes are still controlled by the bears.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can close above 155, preferably 160, they should be able to stop the bleeding [..]

Check/in progress. The bulls barely closed above 155, but 160 was unreachable all week.

Although the bull campaign is now supported by the daily 50 EMA, the greens still need to secure the 200 weekly and 50 monthly exponentials.

If the bulls can pierce 160 and close above 175 (preferably 180), they should be able to expose the 200 psychological level soon.

The bears need to find an opening soon and strike back hard.

As previously reported:

Bearish objectives are clear: reinforce and defend 150 and push for a clean close below 140.

Failed. The bears could not defend 150 and they were unable to find a viable counter all week.

The reds want to keep the action below 170, ideally under 155.

If successful, they might get a chance to flip back 150 and resume their offensive plans.

A clean close below 140 could trigger a bull retreat back to the safety of the 115-130 support zone.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Kraken XMR-BTC) the bulls are slowly but surely advancing towards the weekly 200 exponential below .009.

The week started at .007474 with an anemic bear attempt to break .0073 that was immediately blocked on Monday. .007312 was going to be the week’s low point.

Bullish efforts left behind a classic higher high / higher low pattern on hourly charts. The support line was moved deeper into enemy territory, from .0074 on Wednesday to .0075 on Friday.

Bear forces rushed to defend .0077 after the bulls finally pierced .0076 in the second half.

The top was registered at .007875 during the last day.

The bell temporarily paused the rampage at .007780. The bulls secured a comfortable +3.90% win.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are closing in on .008.

The bulls are in full control of the action and a parabolic move up is a real possibility.

As previously reported:

Bulls are in a great position to target .0078 next. A close above .008 should expose the .0085-009 resistance zone below the weekly 200 EMA.

Failed/in progress. Although the bulls did briefly pierce .0078 on Sunday, the action closed just below the resistance.

If the bulls can finish the job by taking control of .008, they should be able to target the weekly 200 EMA below .009 next.

A confident close above .009 should expose the monthly 50 EMA around .0093 and seriously threaten the macro bear supremacy.

The bears are very exposed right now and they need to prepare for the worst.

As previously reported:

If the bears could punish the overextended bull force by promptly acting on eventual RSI divergences, they might be able to stop a potential .0078 massacre.

Check/in progress. Yes, the bears did barely hang on to .0078 until the bell, but bullish forces were spotted around .0079 today.

RSI values on all charts are in bull territory right now. The bears need to stop their opponents from breaking above .009.

Flipping .0075 to resistance might give the bears a clear shot at reversing some golden crosses and could expose the .007 support.

Note: Kraken is used for the high amount of historical data points.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.