29 Aug 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 34, 2022


XMR opened at 154.47 (Kraken XMR-USD) and bottomed at 141.68 on Friday before closing the week’s action at 146.40 (-5.28%~).

The action

Week 34 action was confined to a tight ~3% range between 150 and 155 until the weekend, when the bulls finally ran out of steam and were forced to abort their mission to recapture the daily 50 and weekly 200 EMAs.

The reds defended well for the first 48 hours and started to push back with a menacing 4H deathcross on Wednesday.

Bullish forces were surprised by a furious red countermove that broke the range support with an unexpected three black crows formation just before the weekend. The low point was registered at 141.68 on Friday.

In their rush to defend 140, the greens intercepted the bears and managed to contain their counterattack by Sunday.

The action closed at 146.40, with a confident -5.28% bear win.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are desperately struggling to recapture 150.

The bulls need to regroup and strike back, but time is not on their side.

As previously reported:

Macro bull supremacy is in danger. Unless the bulls keep the action above 150, they could be forced to give up control of the 200 weekly and 50 monthly moving average support lines.

Failed/in progress. The bulls were unable to keep the action above 150 and were indeed forced to, at least temporarily, give up control of the 200 weekly and 50 daily EMAs.

The monthly is still contested, but the close is only a few days away.

If the bulls can close above 155, preferably 160, they should be able to stop the bleeding and expose previously reported targets:

A confident close above 175 should put the psychological 200 level back on the table.

The bears now have the momentum and they can only lose if they drop the ball.

As previously reported:

If the bears could push and keep the action below 150, they should be able to strike 140 again.

Check/in progress. The bears exposed 140 after capturing 150, but the area is still contested.

Bearish objectives are clear: reinforce and defend 150 and push for a clean close below 140.

If successful, the move could enable skirmishes inside the 115-130 bull support perimeter and might expose the psychological 100 level.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Kraken XMR-BTC) the bulls have displayed impressive tactical skills with a last minute surprise counterattack that devastated the opposition.

The week started at .007182 with a bullish attempt to break .00725 that was easily blocked on Tuesday.

Heavy bear pressure forced the greens into a more defensive stance. Bulls opted for a strategical retreat, looking to regroup above the .007 support.

Bearish efforts to flip the 2H 200 exponential on Thursday and Saturday were unsuccessful. The .007006 bottom was registered on Saturday.

On the very last day, bull reinforcements executed a blitz counterattack against an exhausted red army. The move crushed .00725 and pierced the .0074 resistance.

The bell briefly interrupted the intense action at the period’s high point: .007488. The bulls pulled off a sneaky last-minute +4.22% win.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, bull forces were spotted around .0075.

The bulls are looking invincible, but overextension is a real danger.

As previously reported:

Provided the bulls can push the action above .0074, they should be able to unlock previously reported objectives [..]

Check/in progress. The bulls have flipped .0074 and are now pushing deeper into enemy territory.

Bulls are in a great position to target .0078 next.

A close above .008 should expose the .0085-009 resistance zone below the weekly 200 EMA.

The bears are in a very tricky spot right now.

As previously reported:

The bears need to pierce .007 and push the action back inside the wedge, in order to prevent a potential bull breakout.

Failed. The .007006 low was simply not good enough to prevent the spectacular bull breakout.

If the bears could punish the overextended bull force by promptly acting on eventual RSI divergences, they might be able to stop a potential .0078 massacre.

Flip back .0074 to reignite the fight for .007 and expose .00675 and the .00655-64 bull support area.

Note: Kraken is used for the high amount of historical data points.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.