22 Aug 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 33, 2022


XMR opened at 168.01 (Kraken XMR-USD) and bottomed at 141.17 on Friday before closing the week’s action at 154.56 (-8.02%~).

The action

The bulls ran out of steam during the second half of Week 33 and were unable to stop the bears from registering their first win in 7 weeks.

Despite repeated bull attacks on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday, the reds did very well to defend the .618 fibs resistance zone around 170.

Outnumbered and exhausted, the overextended bull force simply had no good response to Friday’s blitz counterattack. The bears crushed the 4H 200 EMA below 160 and continued deep into enemy territory, pushing the greens all the way back to the 140 support.

Thanks to last minute reinforcements, the bulls managed to recover some lost ground during the weekend and put an end to the devastating ~18% bear rally.

The bell temporarily paused the action just below the daily 50 exponential, at 154.56, securing a solid -8.02% victory for the bears.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are struggling to flip back the 155 resistance.

The bulls are in trouble, but there is still hope.

As previously reported:

The bulls need to pierce 170 and close above 175 to expose the .786 fibs around 185 and the psychological 200 level.

Failed. The bulls did ping 170 several times, but they were unable to touch 175 and the .786 fibs zone was unreachable all week.

Macro bull supremacy is in danger. Unless the bulls keep the action above 150, they could be forced to give up control of the 200 weekly and 50 monthly moving average support lines.

Pierce 160 to reverse death crosses on most hourly charts, preserve the 4H golden cross, and expose the golden pocket around 170.

A confident close above 175 should put the psychological 200 level back on the table.

The bears finally got their win, but there is still a lot of work to do.

As previously reported:

If the bears can maintain control of 170 and break the ascending triangle with a sub-160 close, they should be able to target the daily 50 EMA above 150 and expose 135.

Check. The bears accomplished all of their objectives: 170 was defended, 135 was exposed with the 141.17 low, and they closed below 160 (at 154.56).

If the bears could push and keep the action below 150, they should be able to strike 140 again.

Close below 135 to expose the 115-125 bull support area.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Kraken XMR-BTC) the bulls are throwing everything they got at the .0072-73 resistance zone.

The week started at .006909 with a failed bear attempt at breaking .00675 that was blocked just below the 3H 200 EMA.

The first bull attack hit .0072 on Tuesday. Despite a prompt rejection, the greens came back for rounds two and three on Wednesday and Friday. Bearish forces managed to defend and the attackers were forced to constantly retreat and regroup.

On the very last day, one final bull push briefly pierced .0073 and registered the period’s high point at .007319.

The action closed at .007185, with a +3.99% win for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are trying to establish a temporary support above .0072.

The bulls are very close to an important victory.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can stay above .00675, ideally above .007, they should be able to target .0073 again [..] (2 weeks)

Check. The bulls defended .00675 and .0073 was exposed all week.

Close above .0072 to get access to .0074 .. (last week)

Failed/in progress. The bulls were very close, but they only managed to close just below their target, at .007185.

Provided the bulls can push the action above .0074, they should be able to unlock previously reported objectives:

[..] clear a path to .0078/80 and expose the .0085-009 resistance zone below the weekly 200 EMA.

The bears desperately need to retake the initiative.

As previously reported:

A successful defense of .007 and a confident close below .00675 is the main bear priority right now

Failed. Despite some well executed defensive maneuvers, the bears were unable to close below .00675 and secure the .007 level.

The bears need to pierce .007 and push the action back inside the wedge, in order to prevent a potential bull breakout.

Close below .00675 to expose the .00655-64 bull support area and potentially target the .0062 structural support line.

Note: Kraken is used for the high amount of historical data points.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.