15 Aug 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 32, 2022


XMR opened at 164.77 (Kraken XMR-USD) and peaked at 171.96 on Tuesday before closing the week’s action at 168.04 (+1.92%~).

The action

Week 32 action brought the 6th consecutive win for the bulls, despite the inconclusive result.

Bullish forces took control of the initiative and launched an attack that briefly pierced 170 on Tuesday. Bears reacted promptly to block access above the resistance. 171.96 was the week’s high point.

The violent counterattack that followed easily broke the 165 bull outpost and pushed the greens back ~9% to defend the 2H 200 exponential above 155 midweek. The level was sufficiently reinforced and bears were unable to penetrate the support after 4 days of struggle. 155.81 was the bottom.

Bears finally gave up on their offensive ambitions, and were forced to defend 170 again, during the weekend.

The action finally closed at 168.04, with a small +1.92% bull win.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, both sides are preparing for the inevitable ascending triangle breakout.

The bulls are very close to the daily 200 EMA, but the reds aren’t giving them a clear shot.

As previously reported:

If only the bulls could defend 165, they should get an opportunity to target the daily 200 EMA resistance very soon [..]

Check/in progress. The bulls did close above that level, at 168.04, but the daily resistance was untouchable. Furthermore, the support is very fragile, as 165 is still contested territory.

The bulls need to pierce 170 and close above 175 to expose the .786 fibs around 185 and the psychological 200 level.

If successful, they could target the 225-230 region next.

The bears are defending well, but they really need a win to turn things around.

As previously reported:

Ideally, the bears need to stay in control of the .618 fibs and keep the action below 175. That should at least delay the disastrous daily golden cross that is currently on the horizon.

Check/in progress. The reds managed to contain the action below 175, but it is impossible to delay the daily golden cross indefinitely.

If the bears can counterattack and close below 150, they should be able to produce some death crosses on lower timeframes and expose 135 & the 100-120 bull support zone.

Failed. The bears were blocked at 155.81 and that was insufficient to produce any death crosses on hourly charts.

If the bears can maintain control of 170 and break the ascending triangle with a sub-160 close, they should be able to target the daily 50 EMA above 150 and expose 135.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Kraken XMR-BTC) the bulls are running out of steam, but the bears aren’t keen on capitalizing.

The week started at .007122 with a failed bear attempt at breaking .007 that was blocked just below the 4H 50 EMA.

A visibly tired bull force executed a counterattack that almost pinged .0072 before getting blocked on Tuesday. .007199 was the period’s high point.

Momentum shifted and the bears managed to break .007 and the .006561 lower low bottom was printed on Thursday.

Fortunately for the bulls, the 4H 200 exponential support was strong enough and the bears were forced back to defend .007 during the weekend.

The action finally closed at .006909, with a -3.05% win for the bears.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are trying to undo the death cross on the 1H chart.

The bulls have overextended and they probably need to regroup.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can stay above .00675, ideally above .007, they should be able to target .0073 again [..]

Failed/in progress. The bulls failed to stay above .007, although .00675 was protected for most of the week. .0073 was totally unreachable.

The bulls should focus on preventing further death crosses and defend the daily 50 exponential by keeping the action above .00655.

Close above .0072 to get access to .0074 and unlock the previously reported targets:

[..] clear a path to .0078/80 and expose the .0085-009 resistance zone below the weekly 200 EMA.

The bears now have the initiative but they cannot afford to waste time.

As previously reported:

A blitz .007 flip would put the bears in a good position to target .00675 next.

Check/in progress. The bears did well to flip .007, but they only got a taste of .00675 on Thursday.

A successful defense of .007 and a confident close below .00675 is the main bear priority right now. Previous analysis is still valid:

Clear the .00655-64 support area to expose the .006-615 triangle support and force bulls into a very defensive stance.

Note: switched to Kraken due to Poloniex issues; these particular exchanges are used because of the high amount of historical data points.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.