8 Aug 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 31, 2022


XMR opened at 154.78 (Kraken XMR-USD) and peaked at 171.06 on Sunday before closing the week’s action at 164.87 (+6.36%~).

The action

Week 31 action was confined to a tight ~4% range, between 155 and 160, until the very last day when the bulls managed to finally break the resistance and score their 5th consecutive win.

The bears got very close to the 150 support on Monday, but were easily rejected at the 1H 200 EMA. 152.58 was going to be the low point of the week.

Bulls opted for a simple tactical approach to systematically push the action towards the 160-165 resistance area once every 24 hours or so and reinforce at the solid 4H 50 exponential support whenever necessary.

The parallel channel was finally broken by speculative bull efforts on Sunday and the bears were forced to retreat towards 170, below the daily 200 EMA resistance line.

The action finally closed at 164.87, with a +6.36% win for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are trying to defend an advanced support position above 165.

The greens must be proud of the newly constructed bullish engulfing candle on the daily, but they need to focus on clearing the 175-200 resistance zone next.

As previously reported:

Provided the bulls can stay above 150 and pierce 165, they should get the chance to target the daily 200 EMA resistance next, around 175.

Check/in progress. The bulls did well to prevent 150 attacks and were able to pierce 165 on Sunday and close just under that target at 164.87. However, the area is still unsecured, as 165 is still contested territory.

If only the bulls could defend 165, they should get an opportunity to target the daily 200 EMA resistance very soon, and unlock previously reported targets:

Clear the 175-185 resistance zone to expose the psychological 200 level.

The bears lost control of the monthly 50 & weekly 200 EMAs and are their macro timeframe supremacy is in real danger now.

As previously reported:

Bears need to reinforce the resistance area, from 165 to the .786 fib around 185. If they can prevent a higher high, they might be able to strike back.

Failed/in progress. Although the bears did manage to block bull access above 165 for the first 6 days, in the end they were unable to prevent a higher high.

Ideally, the bears need to stay in control of the .618 fibs and keep the action below 175. That should at least delay the disastrous daily golden cross that is currently on the horizon.

If the bears can counterattack and close below 150, they should be able to produce some death crosses on lower timeframes and expose 135 & the 100-120 bull support zone.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Kraken XMR-BTC) the bulls are creating great opportunities, but the overextension risk is real.

The week started at .006642 with a bull move targeting .007, that was rejected on Tuesday.

Despite consistent red pressure, the bulls were able to mount several attacks aimed at the .007-71 resistance zone. Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday assaults were all defended by the bears.

On the very last day, the bulls finally broke out of the 4H ascending triangle after a decisive strike that pushed the action deep into enemy territory and pinged .00741. That was going to be the week’s high point.

Bearish forces reacted quickly and managed to push the action back inside the April/May triangle with a last minute effort.

The action finally closed at .007126, with a +7.24% win for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are keen on retaking .007.

The bulls are very close to a big win, but they can’t afford falling into another bear trap.

As previously reported:

If the bulls stay above .0065, they should be able to orchestrate another .007 assault.

Check/in progress. The bulls did briefly push the action above the resistance, but they ran out of steam and had to back off to defend .007.

If the bulls can stay above .00675, ideally above .007, they should be able to target .0073 again and unlock previously reported targets:

[..] clear a path to .0078/80 and expose the .0085-009 resistance zone below the weekly 200 EMA.

The bears are still in the game, but we are in overtime.

As previously reported:

Bears need to defend .00725 and close below .0064.

Failed/in progress. The bears took advantage of the double top on the 4H RSI to sucessfully reject the bull attack on Sunday, but they were nowhere close to their .0064 offensive target.

A blitz .007 flip would put the bears in a good position to target .00675 next.

Clear the .00655-64 support area to expose the .006-615 triangle support and force bulls into a very defensive stance.

Note: switched to Kraken due to Poloniex issues; these particular exchanges are used because of the high amount of historical data points.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.