1 Aug 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 30, 2022


XMR opened at 151.40 (Kraken XMR-USD) and peaked at 166.35 on Thursday before closing the week’s action at 155.01 (+2.47%~).

The action

Week 30 action was back-and-forth, but the bulls managed to just barely close above the monthly 50 EMA and score their 4th consecutive win.

The bears started with a strong move that pushed their opponents back to the safety of the 4H 200 exponential support just above 135.

Bullish reinforcements deflected the attack after 24 hours and the weekly low point was recorded at 137.71.

The very powerful counterattack that followed was met with little resistance: 150 was easily pierced on Wednesday and the bulls kept pushing towards 170.

Despite going against the highest daily RSI since April (66+), defending forces took advantage of the clear 3H RSI divergence to strike back and put an end to the massive ~20% bull rally. 166.35 was the top.

The weekend was dominated by the bears, but their last minute efforts were not strong enough to contain the action under the monthly 50 EMA.

The action finally closed at 155.01, with a +2.47% win for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, both sides are struggling for control over the important weekly 200 EMA around 155.

The bullish military operation is going according to plan, despite unspectacular statistics for the previous period.

As previously reported:

[..] this pace is unsustainable and they might need to reinforce, print a higher low, and then strike again. Bulls need to stay above 130-140 and break above the monthly 50 EMA around 155, preferably by the end of this week, which coincides with the monthly close.

Check. This is precisely what the bulls did, and it worked. The bulls successfully established a higher low above 140 and closed above the 155 monthly 50 EMA, but barely.

Provided the bulls can stay above 150 and pierce 165, they should get the chance to target the daily 200 EMA resistance next, around 175.

Clear the 175-185 resistance zone to expose the psychological 200 level.

The bears are in trouble, but there are ways to get out of it.

As previously reported:

A confident close below 135 would put previously reported targets back on the table (last week)

Failed. The bears had one single opportunity to break 135 on Tuesday, but failed to reach and pierce the key support: the 137.71 bottom was a disappointing result.

Bears should prioritize fortification of the monthly 50 and weekly 200 EMAs defenses, in the 150-155 range. (2 weeks)

Failed/in progress. The bears lost the monthly 50 EMA battle, at least temporarily. Furthermore, the weekly 200 EMA is now under heavy artillery attack. The bearish macro supremacy is actively contested.

Bears need to reinforce the resistance area, from 165 to the .786 fib around 185. If they can prevent a higher high, they might be able to strike back.

Close below 150 to expose 135 again and unlock previously reported targets:

Pierce the key resistance to attempt a move on 120 next and expose 100 to future attacks.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Kraken XMR-BTC) the bulls are still dominating, despite a minor red result on paper.

The week started at .006716 with a weak bear strike targeting .00655, that failed to pierce the 4H 50 exponential.

The bulls retaliated with an explosive counterattack, which demolished .0068 on Tuesday and printed a higher high the next day, after pinging .007306. That was going to be the week’s high point.

Bearish forces promptly intervened to immediately force the action back below .007.

After a bear-dominated second half, the action finally closed at .006645, with an inconclusive -0.98% result for the reds.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are getting ready for their next offensive move aimed at the .007 resistance.

The bulls are looking confident and ready for action.

As previously reported:

Nothing really changed for the bulls. They still need to close above .00675 and punch hard at the .007-725 resistance zone.

Failed/in progress. The bulls performed well, briefly pierced the resistance zone with the .007306 top, but they were ultimately unable to close above .00675.

If the bulls stay above .0065, they should be able to orchestrate another .007 assault.

Close above .0073 to clear a path to .0078/80 and expose the .0085-009 resistance zone below the weekly 200 EMA.

The bears are in a precarious position, despite the marginal win.

As previously reported:

If the bears can block bull access above .00675, they should get another chance to break .0064 and strike .00615 again.

Failed. Offensive plans had to be postponed. In the end, the bears did close below .00675 (at .006645), but bulls were granted easy access above the fragile resistance for most of the week.

Bears need to defend .00725 and close below .0064. That’s the only way they might be able to target .00615 and unlock previously reported targets:

[..] a chance to pierce .00575 and expose .00525-55 [..]

Note: switched to Kraken due to Poloniex issues; these particular exchanges are used because of the high amount of historical data points.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.