25 Jul 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 29, 2022


XMR opened at 138.00 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and peaked at 153.75 on Friday before closing the week’s action at 151.36 (+11.34%~).

The action

Week 29 was rewarding for the bulls: they are now controlling the daily 50 EMA for the first time in 3 months.

After an uneventful 48 hours, bullish forces finally reached the 150 resistance area on Wednesday.

Despite sustained bullish efforts to break through, the bears managed to defend well during the first half and push their opponents back to the 4H 50 exponential support around 145 before the weekend.

Bulls were not ready to settle with Friday’s 153.75 high and came back for round two on the very last day. However, RSI divergences signaled the futility of their attempt: bears quickly reacted to block the weak attack before it could pierce the .618 fibs.

The action finally closed at 151.36, with a +11.34% solid win for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, bears are attempting a death cross on the hourly, targeting the 130-135 support zone.

The bulls are doing well, but this pace is unsustainable and they might need to reinforce, print a higher low, and then strike again.

As previously reported:

The bulls need to stay above the daily 50 exponential around 140 if they want to attack the golden pocket around 155 next.

Check/in progress. The bulls defended 140 and got very close to the 155 resistance on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Sunday.

A close above 155 would deny a potential bear death cross on the weekly, fuel an offensive campaign in the 170-180 resistance zone and could also expose the psychological 200 level.

Failed/in progress. Unfortunately, the 153.75 high was insufficient to fuel the 170-180 offensive campaign.

Bulls need to stay above 130-140 and break above the monthly 50 EMA around 155, preferably by the end of this week, which coincides with the monthly close.

Provided all goes according to plan, we should see action in the 170-200 range soon.

The bears were forced to back off, but they managed to defend critical infrastructure and are now ready to strike back.

As previously reported:

Bears should prioritize fortification of the monthly 50 and weekly 200 EMAs defenses, in the 150-155 range. Provided they can keep control over the macro timeframes, bears should be able to execute a countermove soon, targeting 135.

Check/in progress. This is exactly what the bears did, and it worked rather well. They are still in control of macro timeframes and 135 is exposed to attacks.

A confident close below 135 would put previously reported targets back on the table:

Pierce the key resistance to attempt a move on 120 next and expose 100 to future attacks.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are still on the offensive, but bears are not ready to give up on to the .00675 level.

The week started at .006555 with a strong bear defense of .00665 and a counterattack that lasted roughly 72 hours and which pushed bulls all the way back to the .00615 support.

The weekly low point was registed on Wednesday, at .006117.

Bullish forces managed to get back in the game and kept the pressure on the .00665-67 resistance area for the rest of the period.

The action finally closed at .006687, with a decent +2.05% result for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are attempting a break above .00675.

The bulls are still in a good position, but they should prepare to encounter heavy resistance ahead.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can stay above .0064, they should be able to attack the .00665-675 resistance zone and expose .007-725 very soon.

Check/in progress. Although bears did briefly penetrate .0064 on Tuesday, bulls reacted quickly and pushed the action back above that level the very next day. That permitted them to keep the pressure on the resistance for the rest of the week.

Nothing really changed for the bulls. They still need to close above .00675 and punch hard at the .007-725 resistance zone.

Success would give them control over the weekly and monthly moving averages and bears might have no option but to retreat deeper in order to defend previously reported targets:

A confident break above the monthly 50 EMA could trigger a .009 rally in the near future.

The bears suffered yet another loss and nothing seems to be going their way at this point.

As previously reported:

Unless the bears somehow flip back .0064, they should prepare to defend the weekly and monthly EMA’s above .007. An optimistic .0061 break could expose the previously reported targets [..]

Failed. Despite speculative efforts during the first half which pinged the 4H 200 EMA at .006117, the bears were unable to keep the action below .0064 long enough for reinforcements to arrive.

If the bears can block bull access above .00675, they should get another chance to break .0064 and strike .00615 again.

A close below .0061 could unlock previously reported targets:

[..] they should get a chance to pierce .00575 and expose .00525-55 [..]

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.