18 Jul 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 28, 2022


XMR opened at 129.26 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and peaked at 145.00 on Saturday before closing the week’s action at 135.95 (+5.04%~).

The action

Bears suffered a heavy defeat during the second half of Week 28 and the bulls got full control of the 135 resistance level.

On Monday the bears successfully deflected a bullish attempt to pierce the 4H 200 EMA just below the .382 fibs around 132.

The small victory triggered a ~10% rally targeting 120, however bullish reinforcements arrived just in time to defend the support, put an end to the attack mid-week and shift initiative on the ground.

Friday was the most important day of the period: the ascending triangle finally collapsed after the bulls managed to build a 3H golden cross and quickly flip 135, turning that back into a key support for the first time in more than a month.

The weekly high point was registered at 145.00, after bearish forces barely defended the .5 Fibonacci Retracement Level on Saturday to gain back some of the lost territory just before the bell.

The action finally closed at 135.95, with a +5.04% win for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls have restarted the 145 offensive.

The bulls now have the momentum, but nothing is written in stone.

As previously reported:

As the action is fast approaching the apex of the ascending triangle structure, bulls need to deny bearish access below ~120 and break 135 as soon as possible.

Check. Bulls defended 120 and are now in control of 135. The triangle was broken to the upside.

The bulls need to stay above the daily 50 exponential around 140 if they want to attack the golden pocket around 155 next.

A close above 155 would deny a potential bear death cross on the weekly, fuel an offensive campaign in the 170-180 resistance zone and could also expose the psychological 200 level.

The bears should prepare to defend against what looks like imminent attacks on the horizon.

As previously reported:

If they can stay in control of 135 and keep bulls away from 150, the bears should get another shot to breach 95 [..] (2 weeks)

A close under 100/95 should unlock previously projected targets [..] (last week)

Failed. The bears lost 135 and 150 is now exposed to bull attacks. 100 was out of reach, as bears were pretty much forced into a defensive stance after being denied access under 120 on Wednesday.

Bears should prioritize fortification of the monthly 50 and weekly 200 EMAs defenses, in the 150-155 range.

Provided they can keep control over the macro timeframes, bears should be able to execute a countermove soon, targeting 135.

Pierce the key resistance to attempt a move on 120 next and expose 100 to future attacks.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls have managed to push the monthly RSI above 50 for the first time in almost two years.

The week started at .006197 with a strong bull offensive of the .0064 resistance that lasted almost 72 hours.

The bulls inevitably ran out of steam mid-week and had no option but to retreat and wait for reinforcements above .0061, at the 4H 50 exponential support line.

On Thursday the bears failed to defend .0064 against a second assault and were forced to retreat.

The weekly high point was recorded during the weekend, on Saturday, when zealous bullish forces pushed deep into enemy territory around .00675 to ping .006772.

Last minute bear reinforcements arrived in the area to punish the bull overextension and stop the bleeding.

The action closed at .006552, with an important +5.69% result for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are trying to build a higher low around .0065.

The bulls are in a great position to finally initiate a macro offensive on the weekly and monthly charts.

As previously reported:

The bull win conditions are simple to understand: reinforce .0062 and move on to clear the .0064-00665 resistance area to unlock exciting new targets [..]

Check/in progress. The bears were only allowed brief access below .0062 for less than a day before getting rejected. .0064 was turned into support and the bulls almost flipped .00665 during the weekend.

If the bulls can stay above .0064, they should be able to attack the .00665-675 resistance zone and expose .007-725 very soon.

A confident break above the monthly 50 EMA could trigger a .009 rally in the near future.

The bears are running out of options as the weekly death cross is looking more and more fragile.

As previously reported:

If the bears can’t retake .0062 fast, they should get ready to prepare a solid weekly 200 EMA defense in the .007-0072 range very soon. [..] provided an unlikely black swan event occurs and bears do get access to .006 [..]

Failed. The bears had one opportunity to win back .0062 and expose .006, but were unable to capitalize. The moving average resistances are now clear targets for the bulls.

Unless the bears somehow flip back .0064, they should prepare to defend the weekly and monthly EMA’s above .007.

An optimistic .0061 break could expose the previously reported targets:

[..] they should get a chance to pierce .00575 and expose .00525-55 [..]

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.