11 Jul 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 27, 2022


XMR opened at 116.10 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and peaked at 133.78 on Friday before closing the week’s action at 129.45 (+11.44%~).

The action

Week 27 action was dictated by the bulls. Bears were forced to focus on defending the 130 resistance just below the 4H 200 EMA.

The bears lost initiative after a failed attempt at breaking the bull support above 110 on Monday. The week’s low point was recorded at 111.00.

Bulls retaliated immediately and started reversing deathcrosses on the 1H & 2H charts. The resulting ~20% rally pushed bears back to defend the ascending triangle’s resistance line around 130.

After recording the period’s high point at 133.78 on Friday, the bulls ran out of steam just as multiple factors started flashing red: the 2H RSI divergence, 4H 200 exponential resistance and the .382 fibs ping.

Despite the bear counterattack, on Sunday, bulls got the chance to lock some of their territorial gains, after 120 support held.

The action finally closed at 129.45, with a +11.44% bullish result.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, both sides are struggling for control between the 4H 50 and 200 EMAs.

The bulls are making progress, but it would not be wise to declare victory just yet.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can stay above 120, they should get another chance to strike 135 this week. (2 weeks)

A confident close above 135 is the main priority now for the bulls. Everything else is pretty much dependant on that objective. (last week)

Failed/in progress. The support is still operational and the bulls did get another shot at piercing 135. Unfortunately, they were blocked at the 133.78 high on Friday.

As the action is fast approaching the apex of the ascending triangle structure, bulls need to deny bearish access below ~120 and break 135 as soon as possible.

Previous analysis is still valid:

If they can accomplish that, previously reported targets would become viable once more: the 150-160 resistance zone in the short term and 180/200 key levels in the longer term.

The bears lost a battle, but they still got the edge.

As previously reported:

If they can stay in control of 135 and keep bulls away from 150, the bears should get another shot to breach 95 [..]

Check/in progress. Although bulls did manage to recapture some levels and delay a counteroffensive, the bears have successfully defended the 130-135 resistance zone and are now getting ready to attempt a break below 120.

A close under 100/95 should unlock previously projected targets:

Breaking 80 would probably expose the 40-50 support area in the near future.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls somehow managed to heroically defend the daily 50 EMA, despite a very strong bearish move.

The week started at .006034 and even though anemic efforts confined the action to a very tight ~3% range during the first half, the weekend was an unexpected roller coaster.

The .006-0062 range was disputed until Thursday, when bulls temporarily pierced the resistance to gently ping .0063.

A blitz counterattack exploited an opening in the bull lines and triggered an ~8% rally to the downside.

The bears overextended and finally ran out of steam around .0058 on Sunday.

Bullish reinforcements joined in just in time to deny what was shaping to be a clear -4%~ red win.

The bell temporarily interrupted the action at .006200, to record an unexpected +2.83% result for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls have pushed through the resistance and it looks like the triangle is done.

If the bulls can stay above .0062, they are golden.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can win .0062 and use that to clear the .0064-00665 resistance area, they could get access to previously reported targets soon

Check/in progress. The bulls broke .0062 immediately after the bell and momentum is clearly on their side now.

The bull win conditions are simple to understand: reinforce .0062 and move on to clear the .0064-00665 resistance area to unlock exciting new targets:

Victory would expose the .007-725 resistance zone [..]

The bears are in trouble and can’t take another deafeat.

As previously reported:

Bears need to defend .0062 and reclaim .006 in order to unlock previously reported objectives

Failed. All was going according to plan and they briefly had .006 in their pocket, but the bears dropped the ball on the very last day.

If the bears can’t retake .0062 fast, they should get ready to prepare a solid weekly 200 EMA defense in the .007-0072 range very soon.

However, provided an unlikely black swan event occurs and bears do get access to .006, that should put them back into the driver seat and unlock previously projected objectives:

[..] they should get a chance to pierce .00575 and expose .00525-55 [..]

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.