4 Jul 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 26, 2022


XMR opened at 125.73 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and peaked at 130.28 on Monday before closing the week’s action at 116.15 (-7.43%~).

The action

Week 26 action was largely controlled by the bears. Although the bulls did enough to keep the action above the psychological 100 level, they were unable to break the 130 resistance.

The bulls lost initiative during the first 24 hours, immediately after being denied a higher high, just under the 2H 200 EMA at 130. The week’s high point was recorded at 130.28.

Bearish speculative efforts finally paid off on Thursday when the temporary bull support around 117 was pierced.

Luckily for the bulls, nothing significant came out of that move, as the bears ran out of steam early and could not push below 108.

The weekend was dominated by the bullish forces. After exploiting a RSI divergence on minor timeframes, they went on to recover ~7% of the lost territory.

The action finally closed at 116.15, with a -7.43% result favoring the bears.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are pushing for an hourly golden cross around 120.

The bulls are running out of options and they need to make something happen during this period.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can stay above 120, they should get another chance to strike 135 this week.

Failed/in progress. The bulls lost 120 in the early game, on Monday. Although 135 was out of reach during the last period, they seem determined to give it another shot soon.

A confident close above 135 is the main priority now for the bulls. Everything else is pretty much dependant on that objective.

If they can accomplish that, previously reported targets would become viable once more: the 150-160 resistance zone in the short term and 180/200 key levels in the longer term.

The bears have now pushed the action below all key (50/200) moving average resistances on all charts from 1H to 1M.

As previously reported:

The bears do not want to lose control of 135. Clearing the 110-120 bull defense area should be enough to produce a favorable monthly close and also expose the psychological 100 level to attacks.

Check/in progress. The bears blocked all access routes to 135 and managed to pierce the monthly 50 exponential after closing the huge ~40%+ monthly candle well below the <150 minimum requirement.

If they can stay in control of 135 and keep bulls away from 150, the bears should get another shot to breach 95 and unlock previously reported targets:

Breaking 80 would probably expose the 40-50 support area in the near future.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bearish stalling tactic was effective in preventing a bull breakout attempt.

The week started at .005968 with another failed bull attempt to flip .006 which triggered a bear counterattack.

The resulting bears strikes targeting the .0057 support were intercepted by the bulls twice, on Tuesday and Thursday. The bulls managed to keep full control over the 4H 200 EMA.

On Saturday, a reinforced bull force flipped the .006 level to support and went on to register the week’s high point at .006200.

Ation closed at .006029, with an unremarkable +1.2% result for the bulls.

The bulls are looking to take advantage of the 4H golden cross to break the .0062 resistance.

As previously reported:

To break out of the April structure, the bulls need to close above .0064 and expose .00665.

Failed/in progress. The bulls did flip .006, but were denied access to .0064 after they lost the battle for .0062.

The good news is the RSI is pretty much in bull territory on most charts.

If the bulls can win .0062 and use that to clear the .0064-00665 resistance area, they could get access to previously reported targets soon:

Victory would expose the .007-725 resistance zone [..]

The bears are slowly but surely running out of time and moves.

As previously reported:

If the bears can defend the .006-64 zone, they should get a chance to pierce .00575 and expose .00525-55 soon.

Failed/in progress. The .006 level is still disputed and while the bears did briefly pierce .00575, they were denied prolonged access below .00566 on two separate occasions and were unable to target .0055.

Bears need to defend .0062 and reclaim .006 in order to unlock previously reported objectives:

If they can break .0053 and close under .005, we can expect fights in the .0045-47 area soon.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.