27 Jun 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 25, 2022

Overview

XMR opened at 112.08 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and peaked at 133.8 on Sunday before closing the week’s action at 125.48 (+11.69%~).

The action

Week 25 action was controlled by the bulls. The bears were forced into an early defensive stance but managed to not surrender any critical territory during the period.

Bulls flipped the minor resistance at 110 on Monday and advanced towards 120 the following day. The attack was easily blocked and rejected by bear defenders at the 4H 50 exponential. Bulls had to retreat to the fresh 110 support and wait for reinforcements.

In the second half the bulls came back for round two and managed to break 120 on Thursday. That assault also produced the first hourly golden cross in almost a month.

During the weekend, bear forces did just enough to stop the bullish campaign at the .382 fibs, just below the 135 resistance level. The weekly high point was recorded at 133.8 on Sunday.

The action finally closed at 125.48. That was a much needed +11.69% victory for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are attempting to construct a higher low around 120.

The bulls have a little over 72 hours to push the action above 155 and save the monthly close.

As previously reported:

There is little doubt when it comes to what the bulls need to do next: flip back 135 and push for a close above 160 in order to deny the monthly bearish engulfing candle from completing in less than 10 days.

Failed/in progress. The bulls did well to recover a portion of the lost ground, however the key 135 resistance was simply unreachable. Unfortunately, they ran out of steam just under that level, at 133.8.

If the bulls can stay above 120, they should get another chance to strike 135 this week.

Flip 135 quickly in order to expose the 150-160 resistance zone.

A confident close above 160 should unlock previously reported targets:

That kind of bull victory would get them back in the game and should open up attack options for 180 and 200 in the near future.

Defeated, but not out. Bears are still 100% in the game.

As previously reported:

The bears only need to defend one of the key fib retracement levels: .382 around 135 and .618 below 160 would probably be their best options.

Check. Despite the final result, the bears were successful in blocking bull access to 135 at the .382 fib retracement level.

The bears do not want to lose control of 135. Clearing the 110-120 bull defense area should be enough to produce a favorable monthly close and also expose the psychological 100 level to attacks.

Close under 95 to start a new bear era. Previous targets would become viable:

Breaking 80 would probably expose the 40-50 support area in the near future.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are preparing another breakout attempt.

The week started at .005490 with a bull attack that quickly flipped .0055 to support.

The bears used that level to siege .00565 during the next 3 days. On Thursday, bears were finally ready to give up on the 2H 200 EMA resistance and retreat towards the .006 resistance.

Bullish forces took advantage of that to establish a new support perimeter above .0058, with obvious plans to probe .006 during the weekend.

The week’s high point was recorded on the last day at .006195. Bears barely managed to defend the area, but not before conceding to a 4H golden cross.

Ation closed at .005957, with a hopeful +8.51% result for the bulls.

The bulls are winning small battles, but macro time frames are still controlled by their opponents.

As previously reported:

Provided they stay above .0053 and flip .0058, they should get another opportunity soon [at retaking control of .006].

Check/in progress. Bulls managed to flip .0058 and did get another shot at .006. Despite briefly touching .006195, they were only able to close just below that level at .005957.

To break out of the April structure, the bulls need to close above .0064 and expose .00665.

Victory would expose the .007-725 resistance zone, unlocking bigger objectives: control over the weekly and monthly charts.

The bears are struggling to keep the monthly RSI below 50.

As previously reported:

If they can break .0053 and close under .005, we can expect fights in the .0045-47 area soon.

Failed. The bears were unable to break .0053 after being blocked around .0054 by bulls on Monday. The rest of their objectives were delayed after they were forced to defend for the rest of the period.

If the bears can defend the .006-64 zone, they should get a chance to pierce .00575 and expose .00525-55 soon.

Close under .005 to break down and freak out the bulls.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA