20 Jun 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 24, 2022


XMR opened at 156.93 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), bottomed at 95.95 on Saturday and closed the week’s action at 112.34 (-28.58%~).

The action

Week 24 action was completely dominated by the bears. Bulls were simply no match to the devastating bearish continuation assault that gave full control over the weekly 200 EMA to their opponents for the first time in 2+ years.

Bears furiously attacked 135 on Monday and the bull defenders barely managed to hang on to the support for the first 24 hours, before being forced to retreat towards the psychological 100 level mid-week.

A small bull counterstrike was quickly blocked at 120 on Thursday.

The weekend was particularly scary for the bulls after the the bears managed to briefly pierce 100 and recorded the period’s low point at 95.95 on Saturday.

On the very last day, the bulls finally took advantage of RSI divergences on most hourly charts to mount a last minute counter move which closed the action at 112.34 for a -28.58% crushing result.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are orchestrating a golden cross on the hourly, betting on a fib retracement move that could initially target .382 around 135.

The bulls are in a very tricky situation and only pushing the action back above the monthly 50 exponential could potentially save them.

As previously reported:

If bulls can retake control of the weekly 200 EMA and push the action above the monthly 50 exponential, they should get another chance to fight for the 180 resistance.

Failed. The bulls lost control of both the weekly and monthly moving average supports and a fight for 180 is currently off the table.

There is little doubt when it comes to what the bulls need to do next: flip back 135 and push for a close above 160 in order to deny the monthly bearish engulfing candle from completing in less than 10 days.

That kind of bull victory would get them back in the game and should open up attack options for 180 and 200 in the near future.

The bears are winning but should expect some form of retaliation soon.

As previously reported:

If bears can close below 150, that would be significant. However, if they can push and keep the action under 135 for enough time, the bears should be able to target the psychological 100 level next.

Check. The bear force was strong enough to destroy 150, keep the action under 135 long enough to target and briefly pierce 100.

Breaking 80 would probably expose the 40-50 support area in the near future.

Failed/in progress. Although the bulls did stop the bleeding just over 95 to prevent 80 attacks last week, the level is still exposed.

The bears only need to defend one of the key fib retracement levels: .382 around 135 and .618 below 160 would probably be their best options.

If successful, the bears might be able to bomb 100 and potentially start a new impulse wave down. Flipping the critical support level should expose 80 and force bulls into a deeper retreat towards 50.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are not yet ready to give up on the weekly 50 EMA around .0054.

The week started at .005897 with a nice bull counterattack supported by .0057 that was targeting .006 and was meant to stop a 4H deathcross.

After only 24 hours, bears emerged as the clear winners of that encounter. What followed was a very strong ~16% bear rally that lasted until the weekend and produced the weekly low point at .005017 on Thursday.

On Friday the bears finally ran out of steam after briefly piercing the daily 200 and 50 weekly EMAs. Luckily for the bulls, .005 proved to be a strong enough support.

The bull counterattack targeting the 4H 50 exponential and the .05 fibs was stopped by the bell and action closed at .005490, with a solid -6.75% result for the bears.

The bulls need to grab the initiative and switch to gung ho mode.

As previously reported:

The bulls are still in control of the daily 50 EMA around .00588, but barely. If the bulls can stay above that level and keep the daily golden cross intact, they should have a decent shot at retaking control of .006 soon.

Failed. The bulls took a shot at .006 on Monday. Although that failed, the daily golden cross is still intact.

Provided they stay above .0053 and flip .0058, they should get another opportunity soon.

Previous targets still valid:

If they can flip .0064, another .00665 assault would be imminent.

The bear stats are looking good, but they need a significant win soon or a strong defence.

As previously reported:

We can expect a fight in the daily 50 EMA vicintity, around .00585. (2 weeks)

The .006 bear victory produced deathcrosses on most hourly charts and the 4H chart is next. (1 week)

Check and check. The bears fought well and were rewarded with full control over the daily 50 EMA, the .006 resistance level and also the 4H deathcross.

If they can break .0053 and close under .005, we can expect fights in the .0045-47 area soon.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.