13 Jun 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 23, 2022


XMR opened at 186.33 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), peaked at 193.46 on Monday and closed the week’s action at 157.29 (-15.61%~).

The action

Week 23 action tempo was dictated by the bears. Bulls were repeatedly denied access to 200 during the first half, and had to give up on their 4H 200 EMA battle plans.

Anemic bull forces initiated two separate attacks that were meant to hit and flip 200 on Monday and Tuesday. Both efforts failed, after being intercepted by the bears around 190.

By Thursday it was clear that the bulls didn’t have the numbers necessary for yet another offensive move, after they were unable to prevent a deathcross on the 3H, which ended up triggering a vicious bear counterattack.

The weekend was particularly bloody: on Friday the bulls lost 180 and started to retreat towards 150.

The bell temporarily saved the bulls from further misery by closing the action at 157.29. The -15.61% result marked a significant bear victory.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, bull defenders are desperately fighting to stay in the game just above the 135 support.

The bulls are visibly struggling to mount any kind of offensive move. The pressure is on.

As previously reported:

The bulls need to push for a higher high soon if they want to break through the ascending triangle that started forming last month.

Failed. The bulls failed to produce a higher high after being rejected around 190 and the structure collapsed to the downside.

The bulls have lost control of almost all territories and this period is crucial for both the weekly and the monthly charts.

They simply cannot afford a close below 157.

If bulls can retake control of the weekly 200 EMA and push the action above the monthly 50 exponential, they should get another chance to fight for the 180 resistance.

Flip that to expose 200 once more.

The bears are currently preparing for another wave down.

As previously reported:

If they can win 180, preferably close below 165, then 150 would be totally exposed. Flip that level to fight in the 120-135 zone in the near future.

Check/in progress. The bears have finally counterattacked and the results are pretty solid: they easily broke 180 during the weekend, closed below 165 and pushed forward to briefly pierce the key 135 bull support.

A lot of factors are favoring the bears at this point: they got the momentum, RSI on most charts has crossed below 50, relevant macro moving average suppports have been breached, most goldencrosses were reversed and the bull morale is critically low.

If bears can close below 150, that would be significant.

However, if they can push and keep the action under 135 for enough time, the bears should be able to target the psychological 100 level next.

Breaking 80 would probably expose the 40-50 support area in the near future.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are having trouble staying above the daily 50 exponential around .0059.

The week started at .006209 and action was confined to a rather tight ~5% range between .0059 and .0062 until the weekend.

The .006 support at the 4H EMA was the main target for bear assaults and the level held on Monday and Wednesday.

Bulls had to defend all week after losing the battle for .0062 at the beginning of the week, on Tuesday.

On Saturday the bears pierced the support and started pushing towards .0056, riding death crosses on most hourly charts.

Bulls managed to stop the bleeding on Sunday after bears registered the week’s low point at .005552.

The action finally closed at .005887, with a decent -5.13% result for the bears.

The bulls are still in the game, despite the negative result.

As previously reported:

Bulls are now back in the difficult spot of defending .006 and keeping the action above the 200 EMA on the 4H. (1 week)

Failed. The bulls came very close to defending .006 and the 4H 200 exponential battle is still ongoing.

The bulls need to prevent bearish maneuvers below the daily 50 EMA [..] (2 weeks)

Check/in progress. The bulls are still in control of the daily 50 EMA around .00588, but barely.

If the bulls can stay above that level and keep the daily golden cross intact, they should have a decent shot at retaking control of .006 soon.

Previous targets still valid:

If they can flip .0064, another .00665 assault would be imminent.

The bears are winning, but their slow and steady pace tactic might backfire.

As previously reported:

We can expect a fight in the daily 50 EMA vicintity, around .00585. (1 week)

Failed/in progress. Bears successfully engaged the enemy in that area but they have not yet won that fight.

[..] the bears might be able to recapture .006 and undo some golden crosses on hourly charts. (2 weeks)

Check/in progress. The .006 bear victory produced deathcrosses on most hourly charts and the 4H chart is next.

Previous targets are still valid:

A close under .00575 is necessary to enable .0053 and .0047 follow-up attacks.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.