6 Jun 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 22, 2022


XMR opened at 181.05 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), peaked at 201.6 on Tuesday and closed the week’s action at 186.38 (+3.55%~).

The action

Week 22 action was focused on the psychological 200 resistance level. Bulls repeatedly put the bear defense to the test during the first half, but they ran out of steam just before the weekend and had to give up control of the daily 50 EMA.

Bulls initiated a strong offensive move on Monday that would last 48 hours and which was meant to crush 200. The 10%+ resulting rally also produced a golden cross on the 3H, but that wasn’t enough to pierce the solid bear resistance.

Action cooled off until Thursday, when bull reinforcements came back for round two. However, the attack was short-lived and the results disappointing.

Although bears had no trouble defending, curiously enough, they also seemed rather uninterested in starting a strong counterattack.

Action finally closed at 186.38 and the bulls had to settle with a measly +3.55% result.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, bears seem to be moving their defensive installations forward, just above 190.

The bulls are currently reinforcing the 170-180 support zone, expecting some kind of attack soon.

As previously reported:

The bulls are close to completing some relevant golden crosses on the 3H and 4H charts, but they need to flip 200 very soon.

Failed/in progress. Although the bulls did complete a 3H golden cross and touched 200 twice, they have failed to take control of the important level.

The bulls need to push for a higher high soon if they want to break through the ascending triangle that started forming last month.

Provided 170-180 support holds and bulls can flip 200, they might be able to clear the resistance area ahead, and finally move on to greater targets, as previously reported:

If they can clear the 210-230 resistance zone, bulls should be able to reverse the daily death cross, trap bears and resume the uptrend with a new push towards 250. Close above 250 to target 290/300 next.

The bears are still holding strong and an 180 attack is looking imminent at this point.

As previously reported:

If the bears can keep the action below 230, ideally under the daily 200 EMA around 205, they should be able to counterattack and target 180 soon.

Check/in progress. The bears have done well to retain control of most key resistance zones, but the counterattack is still delayed.

It is unlikely that bears would want to risk another bull test of the already scarred 200.

If they can win 180, preferably close below 165, then 150 would be totally exposed. Flip that level to fight in the 120-135 zone in the near future.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are still unable to produce a higher high above .00665.

The week started at .00615 with a blitz bull attack just above the 4H 50 exponential, targetting .0064. That got rejected on Tuesday.

With a decent temporary support established at .006, revitalized bulls managed to restart the offensive campaign and went on to pierce .0064 and touch the week’s high point at .006596 on Thursday.

The weekend was dominated by the bears. They once more were successful in denying most of the bullish gains, and closed the action at .006205, with an irrelevant +1.09% result for the bulls.

The bulls are wasting valuable opportunities and simply cannot afford a big loss right now.

As previously reported:

The bulls need to prevent bearish maneuvers below the daily 50 EMA and solidify their position above .006.

Check/in progress. The bulls didn’t yet lose .006 and the bears were denied access to the daily 50 exponential, for now.

If they can flip .0064, another .00665 assault would be imminent.

Failed. Although the bulls did briefly pierce .0064 and made an effort to reach .00665, they ultimately failed to secure a clear win after being blocked at .006596 mid-week.

Bulls are now back in the difficult spot of defending .006 and keeping the action above the 200 EMA on the 4H.

If they can maintain both their current support position and the golden cross integrity on hourly charts, they should get another shot at .0064 and .00665 soon.

Previous targets are still relevant:

If the bulls can close above .007, they should be in a good position to attempt a .0072-73 zonal attack. (2 weeks)

The bears are temporarily out of the danger zone, but they need a victory soon.

As previously reported:

If they can stop bulls from piercing the monthly 50 exponential around .0072, ideally keeping the action below .0066, the bears might be able to recapture .006 and undo some golden crosses on hourly charts.

Check/in progress. The bears confidently stopped the bulls from venturing above .0066 and are advancing on .006.

We can expect a fight in the daily 50 EMA vicintity, around .00585.

Previous targets are still valid:

A close under .00575 is necessary to enable .0053 and .0047 follow-up attacks.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.