30 May 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 21, 2022


XMR opened at 184.80 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), peaked at 197.71 on Wednesday and closed the week’s action at 180.00 (-2.6%~).

The action

Week 21 action was dominated by bull attempts to take control of the daily 50 exponential moving average just under 200. The bears managed to prevent golden crosses on most relevant charts, but it was close.

Bulls were repeatedly denied access above the 4H 200 EMA on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and had to settle with the 197.71 high that was registered mid-week.

Although the 180 support proved to be decently reliable for the bulls, bearish forced finally took control of the initiative and broke that level in the second half.

The bears produced a ~15% rally that pushed the bulls back all the way to 167.78 on Sunday, which was going to be the week’s low point.

Action finally closed at 180.00 with an inconclusive -2.6% result for the bears.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, bears are struggling to defend the 200 resistance.

The bulls are keen on turning the monthly candle into a green hammer, with around 24 hours left on the clock.

As previously reported:

If they can take control of 200, they should be able use that to clear the 210-230 resistance zone.

Failed. The key level was unreachable, despite repeated bull offensive efforts in the first half.

The bulls are close to completing some relevant golden crosses on the 3H and 4H charts, but they need to flip 200 very soon.

If they can clear the 210-230 resistance zone, bulls should be able to reverse the daily death cross, trap bears and resume the uptrend with a new push towards 250.

Close above 250 to target 290/300 next.

The bears are holding on, but their position is starting to look shaky.

As previously reported:

If the bears can deny bull access above 210-230, preferably keeping them under 200 and the weekly 50 EMA, they should be okay.

Check. The bears did well to block all bull attempts to push the action above 200, but that’s about all they did.

The best defense is a good offense and the bears need to take control of the initiative fast or prepare for a damaging bull rally if they lose 200.

If the bears can keep the action below 230, ideally under the daily 200 EMA around 205, they should be able to counterattack and target 180 soon.

A close below 165 could force the bulls back into a defensive stance and expose 135 for the nth time.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are slowly closing in on the monthly 50 EMA.

The week started at .006095 with a bull offensive campaign targetting .0064.

The bears finally gave up control of the resistance on Wednesday and were foced to retreat towards .00665.

On Thursday the bullish 9% rally ran out of steam after registering the week’s top at .00665.

The weekend was dominated by the bearish counterattack that erased almost 100% of the bull gains, closing the action at .006138, with a marginal +0.80% victory for the bulls.

The bulls are happy to fight above .006 for now, but the potential for a big victory is increasing.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can close above .006, they should be able to take another stab at .0065. (2 weeks)

Check/in progress. The bulls did close above .006, took a stab at .0065, but were quickly rejected.

If the bulls can close above .007, they should be in a good position to attempt a .0072-73 zonal attack. (last week)

Failed. .007 was totally out of reach, mainly thanks to a solid bear defence of .0065.

The bulls need to prevent bearish maneuvers below the daily 50 EMA and solidify their position above .006.

If they can flip .0064, another .00665 assault would be imminent. Close above that level to expose .007-72 monthly resistance area to attacks.

Previous targets are still valid:

Breaking both the weekly 200 EMA and the monthly 50 EMA would be a massive victory for the bulls, that could expose .009 and .01 in the near future.

The bears are helplessly staring at an almost finalized bullish monthly green hammer.

As previously reported:

The bears need to push the action below .0065 (ideally under .006) in order to contain the bulls inside the 4 year old descending parallel channel.

Check/in progress. The bears barely managed to stop the bulls from taking .0065 and closed the action just above .006.

The bears need to make their move soon, while they are still in control of the two important charts: weekly and monthly.

Losing either of those territories would pretty much guarantee considerable macro pain.

If they can stop bulls from piercing the monthly 50 exponential around .0072, ideally keeping the action below .0066, the bears might be able to recapture .006 and undo some golden crosses on hourly charts.

A close under .00575 is necessary to enable .0053 and .0047 follow-up attacks.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.