23 May 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 20, 2022


XMR opened at 170.57 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), bottomed at 151.07 on Thursday and closed the week’s action at 184.80 (+8.09%~).

The action

Week 20 action was dominated by constant bullish pressure in the 170-180 resistance zone. The bears were finally forced to concede and initiate a tactial retreat towards 200 during the weekend.

The bulls engaged the enemy on Monday, looking to take control of the hourly 200 exponential moving average and revert the death cross.

However, bear forces managed to resist and stay in control of 175 for the first half.

Wednesday’s counterattack pushed back the bulls to the 150 support, but the bears were unable to finalize and had to revert back to a defensive stance for the rest of the week.

On Friday the bears gave up on trying to prevent the hourly golden cross and rushed to reinforce the 3H and 4H 200 EMAs in the 185-200 area.

Action closed at 184.80 with a satisfying +8.09% bull win.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are preparing to attack the psychological 200 level.

The bulls are closing in on the daily 50 exponential around 196.

As previously reported:

The bulls absolutely need not lose control of the monthly support above the 50 exponential, around 150.

Check. The bear attack on 150 was easily rejected on Thursday.

Flipping 180 should expose 200 and give the bulls an opportunity to clear the 210-230 resistance area, break the downtrend and eventually push towards 290 once more.

Check/in progress. They have pushed the action above 180 and 200 is now exposed to attacks.

Everything is going according to plan for the bulls. If they can take control of 200, they should be able use that to clear the 210-230 resistance zone.

A close above 230 would open up a clear .786 fibs strike path around 250 and put 290/300 back on the table.

The bears are hoping to produce a solid monthly close in ~8 days.

As previously reported:

The bears could deploy troops to intercept and counter any bull offensive plans in two zones: 185-200 or 200-225 near the .618 fibs. If they can deny bull access above those areas, they should be able to pierce the monthly 50 EMA around 150 and try their luck at breaking 135.

Failed/in progress. Although the bears did deploy troops to defend the 185-200 area, it doesn’t look that good at this point: the bulls have the initiative, RSI is moving into their territory and a 200 attack seems imminent.

Close below 135 to expose 100 and crush opposition morale.

Failed. The bears were blocked access to 135 after failing to break 150 mid-week.

If the bears can deny bull access above 210-230, preferably keeping them under 200 and the weekly 50 EMA, they should be okay.

A close below 170 would put pressure on the bulls and that might open up the road to 150 and 135 once more.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the relentless bulls are crushing the opposition left and right.

The week started at .005464 with the bears struggling to defend .00575 against a very determined bull force.

After 48 hours of non-stop attacks, the bears finally managed to push the bulls back after temporarily securing control over the 4H 200 EMA.

On Thursday the bulls found support above .0053 and started round two. The weekend was particularly bloody as the bears had to retreat more than 14% to defend the relevant .006 level.

The action closed at .006090, with a solid +11.35% victory for the bulls.

The bulls seem determined to establish a solid support above .006.

As previously reported:

Now the bulls have to stay above .0055 if they want to mount a .0057-006 offensive soon.

Check. The bears briefly touched .005257 with the weekly low point, but bulls confidently won that battle before flipping .0057.

If the bulls can close above .006, they should be able to take another stab at .0065.

Check. The bulls managed to close above .006 and are getting ready to target .0065 next.

If the bulls can close above .007, they should be in a good position to attempt a .0072-73 zonal attack.

Breaking both the weekly 200 EMA and the monthly 50 EMA would be a massive victory for the bulls, that could expose .009 and .01 in the near future.

The bears are under immense pressure and the next few weeks are crucial.

As previously reported:

If the bears can maintain control of .0055-58, a .0051 attack would be imminent.

Failed. Bears lost .0058 and were denied access to .0051.

The bears need to push the action below .0065 (ideally under .006) in order to contain the bulls inside the 4 year old descending parallel channel.

A close under .0052 would largely negate bullish momentum and maintain bearish control over the weekly and monthly charts.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.