17 Jan 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 2, 2022


XMR opened at 190.79 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and bottomed at 179.5 on Monday before closing the week’s action at 223.95 (+17.23%~).

The action

The start of Week 2 was looking very promising for the bears. Monday was probably the most important day of the week.

The bears pushed for a final 180 attack but the battle-tested support level held against all odds. This was the week’s low point: 179.5.

Bullish forces were quick to take advantage of weaknesses in the bear move that were clearly signaled by RSI divergences on the hourly.

The bears were forced to retreat and give up the psychological 200 around the 1H 200 EMA resistance zone mid-week, on Wednesday.

On Thursday the confident bull reinforcements started to undo damage from previous week by flipping deathcrosses on several charts, including the 4H.

The bears temporarily blocked any further bull victories around 230 but it wasn’t enough for a counter-attack.

Bulls closed the action at 223.95 for a promising +17.23% result.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are testing bearish resolve around the 230 resistance area.

The bulls are now in a decent position, but they can still screw this up.

They have accomplished one out of their two objectives:

However, if they can defend 180 once more, they should get some breathing room which can be used to plan a 220-230 attack.

Check. This is 100% exactly what happened, as reported last week.

Provided that works out as planned, they have to commit to a 250 victory (a close above 255 more specifically) if they don’t want to scrap 300 plans.

In progress. This is their next target.

If everything goes according to plan, they should expect skirmishes in the 280-300 territory very soon and an exciting 340 target after that.

The bears have lost momentum and they have to defend now. They had an opportunity to break 180, but failed.

However, they still have an advantage: the downward pressure of the daily 200 exponential.

If they can defend that zone around 240-250 and prevent a golden cross, they should be fine.

As long as bulls are not allowed to escape the descending triangle with a close above 255, they will probably get another shot at a counter-attack targetting 200-215.

Break that to expose 180 again.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are pushing more and more into a disoriented bear defence.

The week started at .004556 with a quick bear attack that only lasted for 24 hours.

On Tuesday, the bulls took control of the action after successfully defending .00436 at the 4H 200 EMA.

The bulls never really let go of their advantage and kept chipping away at the .0053-54 resistance all week.

On Thursday they managed to print the week’s high at .005400. On Saturday they tested the level again but got rejected and had to retreat to .00496 before attacking for a third time on Sunday.

The action closed at .0052 for an impressive +14.14% result for the bulls.

The bears are looking strong.

They need to keep pushing, the big victory is close:

If the bulls can construct and ride the next impulse wave, a close above .0054 would expose .006.

Almost! They are very, very close to this. The bulls literally tocuhed .0054 last week.

Previous reporting still stands:

A breakout above .006 could be massive as it might take the bulls on an exciting mission to .009-01. A win there should send the bears scattering to defend .014 next.

Bears are in trouble right now.

The previous report warned against getting complacent:

The bears are playing it right, but complacency could still ruin their day.

They have to pressure the bulls into fighting below .005. A break under .0045 might be their only chance ..

They failed, but slightly.

They have to stop the bulls from reversing the daily deathcross that has been in effect since August 2021.

If the bears wake up in time to defend .0055 and contain the bull efforts by pushing the action below .005, they can start thinking of an actual counter-attack aimed at .0045-46 and .0043 after that.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.