16 May 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 19, 2022


XMR opened at 215.88 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), bottomed at 119.51 on Thursday and closed the week’s action at 170.97 (-20.65%~).

The action

Week 19 action was dominated by strong bearish maneuvers which exploited clear vulnerabilities in the bull defenses. Spoils include the daily golden cross reversal and full control over the psychological 200 level.

The bulls lost the initiative on Monday, after failing to create a higher high above the 4H 50 EMA around 218. The bear counterattack took the bulls by surprise, quickly flipped 200 and pushed the bears below 180 by midnight.

Bear forces moved their front line installations closer to 180 the next day, just in time to block a weak bull attempt at getting back in the game and pushing their opponents back to 160.

However, the support was temporary, as proven by the vicious mid-week bear assault that had the bulls scramble to defend 135 by Thursday.

For a moment there, the bears touched 119, a level uncontested since November 23rd, 2020. Luckily for the defenders, last-minute reinforcements managed to use clear RSI divergences on hourly charts to stop the bleeding.

The bull push back finally paid off on Sunday after they regained control of 160 to miraculously end the week still in control of the monthly 50 and weekly 200 moving averages.

Action closed at 170.97 and the bears had to settle with a -20.65% win.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are struggling to establish support above the 4H 50 exponential around 165.

The bulls are now trapped between the 50 and 200 weekly EMAs in the 150-210 range.

As previously reported:

[..] The bulls should prepare to defend 180, if they want to avoid a complete wave failure and a retreat towards the 135-150 zone.

Failed. Exactly as reported, their worst nightmare has materialized after losing key support levels, specifically 180.

The bulls absolutely need not lose control of the monthly support above the 50 exponential, around 150.

Flipping 180 should expose 200 and give the bulls an opportunity to clear the 210-230 resistance area, break the downtrend and eventually push towards 290 once more.

The bears are preparing for the next red wave. A massive victory awaits, provided they don’t miscalculate.

As previously reported:

If the bears can flip 180, they should be able to target the weekly 200 EMA around 150 next. [..] Although hard to accomplish, and if 150 is broken, an unlikely close below 130 is possible.

Check/in progress. The bears flipped 180, 150 and then briefly pierced 130 with the weekly 119.51 low. However, they still have yet to impress with a great close.

The bears could deploy troops to intercept and counter any bull offensive plans in two zones: 185-200 or 200-225 near the .618 fibs.

If they can deny bull access above those areas, they should be able to pierce the monthly 50 EMA around 150 and try their luck at breaking 135.

Close below 135 to expose 100 and crush opposition morale.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls failed to create a higher high and were forced into a defensive stance.

The week started at .006350 with the bears in full control of the action after they denied bull access to .0065.

Bulls were forced to give up ~30% of their territory by mid-week. On Thursday the bears finally lost momentum after touching .004441. That was the bottom.

The weekend was dominated by the bulls. Their counterattack was sucessful enough to recover more than half of the lost ground, but the glory was reserved for the bears.

The action closed at .005469, with a considerable -14.00% win for the bears.

The bulls are still in a decent position. If only they could stabilize a above the daily 50 EMA around .0055.

As previously reported:

[..] the bulls still need to break .0065.

Failed. Now the bulls have to stay above .0055 if they want to mount a .0057-006 offensive soon.

If the bulls can close above .006, they should be able to take another stab at .0065.

That’s pretty much the final resistance before .007.

The bears are in a better position now, but only slightly.

As previously reported:

If they could stop the bulls at either the weekly 200 or the monthly 50 EMA [..] they might be able to maintain the death cross status quo and restart offensive plans.

Check. The bears promptly reacted to stop any bullish structure from forming on major charts and the relevant death crosses are still intact.

A close under .00495 should send a clear message and force the bulls into a retreat, to defend .0045.

Failed/in progress. The bears did keep the action below .00495 for a few days and forced the projected bull retreat towards .0045 with the .004441 low, but in the end they simply could not reach their target close.

If the bears can maintain control of .0055-58, a .0051 attack would be imminent.

Close below .0047, ideally .0045, to target and potentially break the already weakened crucial bull .0039 support.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.