9 May 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 18, 2022


XMR opened at 211.88 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), peaked at 229 on Thursday and closed the week’s action at 215.48 (+1.48%~).

The action

Week 18 action painted a descending triangle on hourly charts, favoring the bears. Although the bulls ended up closing the week with a slightly positive result for them, it was obvious to most observers that the bears were in total control of the momentum at all times.

The bears started the week with a blitz attack targeting 200. However, that was immediately rejected, and was followed by an impressive bull counterratack which registered the week’s high point at 229 on Thursday, after a 15%+ move.

After it was clear that the 4H 200 EMA resistance zone between 220-230 would hold, the bears launched three more assaults aimed at the psychological 200 support on Thursday, Friday and Sunday.

The bull defenders barely held on to 200, but their counter moves were being blocked faster with each skirmish. The 50 exponential on the daily proved to be an impassable obstacle for the rest of the week.

Action closed at 215.48, temporarily stopping engagements to register the tiny +1.48% bull result.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are closing in on the 180 support, as bulls are rushing to defend the key level.

The bulls are now trapped, after being punished for their overextension, by a determined bear force.

As previously reported:

A close above 220 would open up a way to clear 240 and expose 290 once more.

Failed. The bulls were stopped two times at the 220 resistance and only managed to come very close to that level once, with the week’s high point, at 229, on Thursday.

The bulls should expect 180 strikes soon and a solid defense should already be in the works. That level should be impenetrable. If the bulls can construct a higher low, ideally above the 180-200 zone, then we can expect a new impulse wave up in the following weeks.

In progress. The bulls should prepare to defend 180, if they want to avoid a complete wave failure and a retreat towards the 135-150 zone.

If the bulls can find support above 180, they should be able to restart offensive plans directed at breaking 220.

A confident close above 220, ideally above 230, would clear all moving averages and prevent the daily golden cross reversal, which is currently in progress.

Provided all goes according to plan, 290/300 should be back on the table very soon.

The bears are doing very well, but the battle ahead could prove to be very difficult for them to win.

As previously reported:

If the bears can hold on to the initiative and keep the action sandwiched between the 50 and 200 EMAs on the weekly, below 215, they should be able to reverse the daily golden cross soon.

Check. The bears now have the initiative, the action is taking place between the two moving averages, and a death cross is quickly forming on the daily.

A close under 180 would expose the weekly 200 exponential support around 150. Victory there would force a bitter bull retreat towards 135.

In progress. If the bears can flip 180, they should be able to target the weekly 200 EMA around 150 next.

Although hard to accomplish, and if 150 is broken, an unlikely close below 130 is possible.

That would be a huge victory for the bears, which might force the bulls into the very precarious position to defend 100.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls have successfully established a reliable support above the weekly 50 exponential.

The week started at .005509 with a bear attack that was blocked at the .786 fibs, which printed the week’s low point at .0051.

The bears failed to retake control of the action and the bulls were in full control for the rest of the week.

With momentum on their side, bullish forces managed to pierce moving averages on most hourly charts, leaving behind golden crosses everywhere, with their glorious ~24% rally.

On Friday, the bulls flipped .00575 and touched .0061. Bears were simply unable to compete and had to give up that level too on the last day of the week, in order to prepare a .0064 defence.

The action closed at .006359, with a well deserved +15.05% win for the bulls.

The bulls can celebrate, but there’s a lot of hard work to be done still.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can deny bear access below .005 and ideally keep control of .00525, they should be able to use the .786 fibs to support new offensive plans targeting the .0057-59 zone. A break above .0065 would expose .007 to another bull strike.

Check/in progress. Bulls blocked bear access below .005 with the .0051 rejection on Monday, the .786 fibs held, and the .0057-59 has been cleared. However, the bulls still need to break .0065.

If the bulls can do that and create a higher high by closing above .007, we could see a special operation in the .00725-0074 zone very soon.

The bears have missed an important chance to trap the bulls and are now preparing for the worst.

As previously reported:

If the bears can break the daily 200 EMA support with a close below .0049, we should see .0046 attacks next.

Failed. The bears were stopped just above the daily 200 EMA and didn’t get the chance to close below .0049.

The bears are still barely in control of two important charts: the weekly and the monthly.

If they could stop the bulls at either the weekly 200 or the monthly 50 EMA, and push the action under .00735, ideally under .007, they might be able to maintain the death cross status quo and restart offensive plans.

A close under .00495 should send a clear message and force the bulls into a retreat, to defend .0045.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.