25 Apr 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 16, 2022


XMR opened at 240.53 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), peaked at 287.1 on Thursday and closed the week’s action at 253.22 (+5.21%~).

The action

Week 16 action was a roller coaster. The bulls were looking unstoppable during the first half, until the bears started to fight back in a heroic last minute attempt to recover lost ground.

The bulls started the week with a confident defense of 235, which resulted in a counterattack that would immediately flip 250, leaving behind a glorious 8% bullish engulfing candle on the 3H chart and also the weekly low point: 232.6.

Bearish defenses held control of 265 and forced the bulls into a rather tight ~5% range between 250 and 265 for the next few days.

On Thursday, the bulls managed to finally break their opponents position with a strong rally that put bearish resolve to the ultimate test and established the weekly high point: 287.1.

The bears took advantage of the huge RSI divergence on most hourly charts, including the 4H, to initiate a counterattack on Friday. This move took the inebriated bulls by surprise and pushed them back almost 9%.

Using the 2H 55 EMA around 265 as temporary support, the bulls restarted their offensive, targeting a higher high above 285. However, that was a short-lived weekend attempt, as the bears easily intercepeted and crushed the initiative on Saturday at 275.

Sunday was going to be another red day. The bears kept the pressure on and managed to recover another ~9% after pushing an exhausted bull force back to the 250 support.

Action closed at 253.22, ending the week with a decent +5.21% bull win. That could have been a crazy 23% result, if it weren’t for the remarkable bearish comeback.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are doing their best to create a lower low around 255, but the bulls are keen on staying above the 55 exponential on the 4H.

The bullish winning streak is real: this is their 8th consecutive win.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can stay above 240, they might be able to put the pressure on the 260 resistance and push towards the 285-300 zone.

Check. This was exactly what happened: bulls established support above 250 and attacked the 285-300 resistance zone, touching 287.1 mid-week.

A confident close above 300 should expose 370 to attacks and eventually put the ATH on the table.

Failed/in progress. This option is still very much on the table, assuming the bulls manage to protect the daily golden cross.

The bulls must stay above 220. If they can, optimally, find a reliable support above 250, they should be able to easily flip 265 and potentially close above 288.

The next target would be 300 and the bear infested 315-335 resistance area. A decisive win above 340 should expose 400 and the ATH in the near future.

The bears defended well, but that was still a disappointing week for them.

As previously reported:

Ideally, the bears would probably need to promptly reject bullish efforts at 250, flip 230 and quickly push the price below 210 in an attempt to reverse the golden cross and trap bull forces.

Failed. They didn’t even touch 230: the weekly low was 232.6 on Monday. Furthermore, the bears weren’t able to contain the bulls below 250 and were forced into a reactionary mode, always leaving the initiative to their opponents.

This week is crucial, as the bears have less than 5 days to prevent the bulls from completing the third candle in their three white soldier formation, which is super bullish and indicates a bullish reversal on the monthly chart.

No compromise: the bears have to target 209 and at the very least close below 220. That should bring back RSI into a more neutral territory on most charts and could potentially give the bears another shot at 180 soon.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are slowly but surely approaching the monthly 55 EMA resistance.

The week started at .006079 with a bull attack around .0065. The bears blocked bull access above that level and pushed back their opponents to .00615 on Tuesday. That level proved to be a reliable support.

The bulls tried the same move again the very next day. Bears finally had to give up .0065 on Thursday and retreat towards .007. The weekly high was recorded on Friday at .007064.

The bears recovered some ground over the weekend, after successfully rejecting a second .007 bull attempt on Saturday, around .00695.

The action closed at .006401. That was another good result for the bulls, but the +5.29% win could have been at least 3 times juicier, if it weren’t for the resilient bears fighting for their lives.

The bulls are still looking strong, but they need to curb their enthusiasm a bit and prepare to encounter shady bear moves ahead.

As previously reported:

There is no doubt at this point that the bulls are preparing to push deeper into enemy territory and turn .006 into a solid support. (last week)

Check. .0061-615 looks like a decently reliable support so far.

Close above .0063 to expose .0067 and the monthly 50 EMA resistance zone around .007-72. (two weeks ago)

Check/in progress. Bears managed to touch the bottom of that zone with last week’s .007064 peak. The last time that happened was almost a year ago, in June 2021.

If the bulls can stay above .0057, and ideally above .00615, they should get another chance to print a higher high very soon.

Confidently break .0073-74 to clear both weekly and monthly moving average resistances and trigger a huge green wave up, initially targeting .01.

The bear situation is getting desperate, but it’s not hopeless.

As previously reported:

Momentum is currently not on their side, but .006 is still contested currently. [..] If the bears can flip back that important level, they should be able to force the bulls into a .0053-56 retreat.

Failed/in progress. The bears briefly touched .005962 on Monday, but that was the weekly low. Bulls are currently in control of .006, although the zone can still be contested.

If the bears can keep the monthly RSI below 50, flip .006 and close below the 4H 200 EMA around .0055, they should be able to attack .0053 next.

A close below .005 would undo most of the damage, reverse the daily golden cross, trap the bulls and expose .0046.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.