18 Apr 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 15, 2022


XMR opened at 235.08 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), bottomed at 216.06 on Monday and closed the week’s action at 240.68 (+2.42%~).

The action

Most of Week 15 action took place in a tight ~6% range between 225 and 240. The bulls were forced into a very defensive stance early on, but they managed to relieve the pressure with a quick counterattack. It was a rather uneventful period, as the RSI never touched overbought/oversold territories during the period on any chart, hourly and up.

The bears engaged the enemy with a 220 push and painted an aggressive 9% bearish engulfing candle on the 2H chart on Monday. However, a confident bull defence of the 200 EMA support locked the weekly low point at 216.06.

On Tuesday the bulls retaliated, targeting 250, with an equally proportioned move. The counterattack was deflected at 250.02 by the bears. That was the top.

The rest of the week was pretty quiet. The bulls were happy to make use of the 50 exponential on the 4H to build the higher highs of a small ascending triangle. The bears seemed content to defend the 240 resistance line, while waiting for reinforcements.

Action closed at 240.68, ending the week with an indecisive +2.42% bull win. The hidden victory was the resulting golden cross on the daily, that could have immense consequences for the balance of power in the coming weeks.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are struggling to win back 250 after a sharp bull strike that broke through the ascending triangle resistance.

The bulls have pulled off their 7th consecutive win. This is significant and it signals very serious intentions.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can stay above the weekly 50 EMA around 210 for at least one more week, they should be able to pull off the goden cross on the daily. (last week)

Check. The bulls were successful in securing a relatively stable support above 220 and have completed the much anticipated daily golden cross.

[..] they should be able to flip 230 and mount a serious 250 assault soon enough. (2 weeks ago)

Check/ongoing. 230 is in bull hands and the 250 assault has already started.

If the bulls can stay above 240, they might be able to put the pressure on the 260 resistance and push towards the 285-300 zone.

A confident close above 300 should expose 370 to attacks and eventually put the ATH on the table.

Time is running out for the bears. They are getting used to conceding territories at this point.

As previously reported:

If the bears can somehow construct a bearish engulfing candle on the daily and take advantage of the curbed RSI on several hourly charts, they might be able to pierce 210 and win back the psychological 200 level.

Failed. Monday was their best day. Unfortunately for them, that red candle was insufficient for a victory in the 200-210 area.

Ideally, the bears would probably need to promptly reject bullish efforts at 250, flip 230 and quickly push the price below 210 in an attempt to reverse the golden cross and trap bull forces.

If they can do that and close below the weekly 50 EMA (under ~205), they should be able to march towards 180 in an attempt to destroy any short term bullish dreams.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are reigning supreme after another great week.

The week started at .005596 with a bear strike in the .00525 territory. The bulls stopped that from developing right at the 3H 50 exponential moving average. The weekly low was registered at .005261.

The bulls flipped .0057 the following day, on Tuesday, with an impressive ~17% move. That was the high point of the week: .00622.

The bears managed to save face after a very difficult week for them, with a ~5% retrace that closed the action at .00608. That was a solid effort for the bulls and a well deserved +8.8% result.

The bulls are enjoying their rewards produced by the daily golden cross from two weeks ago.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can build a higher low and ideally find support above .0052, we should see a .006 strike soon.

Check. A temporary support was secured above .0053 and the bulls have touched .00622 and closed slightly above that at .00608. (last week)

[..] Targets in the .006-67 region are still on the table, provided nothing goes very wrong in the following weeks. (two weeks ago)

Check/in progress. There is no doubt at this point that the bulls are preparing to push deeper into enemy territory and turn .006 into a solid support.

Their main objectives remain unchanged:

Close above .0063 to expose .0067 and the monthly 50 EMA resistance zone around .007-72. (last week)

The bears are disappointed, but they do live to fight another week.

As previously reported:

The bears have to stop any further bull advancement into their territory and win a small victory in order to shift current momentum. If they can time a RSI divergence-synchronized attack and push the action below .005, they should get another shot at .0046.

Failed. They never got close enough to strike .005, after getting blocked on Monday at .005261. Momentum is currently not on their side, but .006 is still contested currently.

If the bears can flip back that important level, they should be able to force the bulls into a .0053-56 retreat.

Close below .005 to undo most of the damage and expose .0046.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.