11 Apr 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 14, 2022


XMR opened at 217.06 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), peaked at 244.58 on Saturday and closed the week’s action at 235.00 (+8.21%~).

The action

Most of Week 14 action took place in a ~15% range between 210 and 240. The bears controlled the action until the weekend, when they were forced into a defensive position around the 240 resistance by a surprise bull attack.

The bears initiated the action with a quick attack targeting the 210 level on Monday. Unfortunately for them, that was easily deflected and the week’s low was registered at 209.43.

Bullish reinforcements used the 4H 50 exponential as support to launch several 230 attacks throughout the week, on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. All attempts failed.

Finally, on Saturday the bulls managed to breach 230 and recorded the weekly high point at 244.58.

The bears promptly denied a second assault on Sunday and closed the action at 235.00, concluding the week with a decent +8.21% win for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are testing bull defenses around the 200 EMA on the 2H at 220.

The bulls should not get complacent, even though this is their 6th consecutive win.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can stay in control of the newly established support above 200, they should be able to flip 230 and mount a serious 250 assault soon enough.

Check/in progress. The bulls have secured a relatively stable support above 200, around 210-220. However, their efforts to control 230 were unconvincing at best.

If the bulls can stay above the weekly 50 EMA around 210 for at least one more week, they should be able to pull off the goden cross on the daily.

A confident close above 250 should unlock an interesting battle for 300 in the near future.

The bears need a big win, otherwise they should get ready for more pain.

As previously reported:

The bears need to keep control of 230 if they still want to express any offensive ambitions in the near future.

Check. But the bull forces are still present in proximity of sensitive targets.

If they can flip 200 and close below the weekly 50 exponential, we might see another battle for 180.

Failed. The bears haven’t done enough to get close enough to 200 last week.

If the bears can somehow construct a bearish engulfing candle on the daily and take advantage of the curbed RSI on several hourly charts, they might be able to pierce 210 and win back the psychological 200 level.

The momentum shift could force the bulls into a defensive stance and open up a clear path to 180.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bears failed to prevent the golden cross on the daily and the bulls have finally won a decisive battle after 11 months of struggle.

The week started at .004682 with a bear attack on .0046 that was quickly blocked at .004599. That was the week’s low.

The bulls kept assaulting .0048 for the next 48 hours and managed to pierce .005 on Thursday.

On Friday the bears tried to counterattack and briefly pushed the bulls back all the way to .0046 with a remarkable ~10% rejection candle.

The massive weekend rebound surprised everyone when the bulls easily broke through .0052-53 resistance and touched the weekly high point at .005752.

The bell saved the bears any further embarrassment by closing the action at .005588. A glorious +19.34% win for the bulls.

The bulls are ecstatic right now but there is still work to be done.

As previously reported:

If that happens and the bulls flip .005, we should see a .0053 assault soon. Targets in the .006-67 region are still on the table, provided nothing goes very wrong in the following weeks.

Check/in progress. The bulls flipped .005, crushed .0053 and are closing in on .006-region targets.

If the bulls can build a higher low and ideally find support above .0052, we should see a .006 strike soon.

Close above .0063 to expose .0067 and the monthly 50 EMA resistance zone around .007-72.

The bears have failed, but nothing is permanent.

As previously reported, this was to be expected:

There is a high probability that the bears will not be able to maintain the sub-.005 containment perimeter for much longer.

However, if the bears could pierce the daily 50 & 200 EMAs and confidently close below .0044, they might be able to trap the bulls and restart a full offensive campaign.

Failed. The bears did their best to quench bullish appetite on Friday, but that wasn’t enough.

The bears have to stop any further bull advancement into their territory and win a small victory in order to shift current momentum.

If they can time a RSI divergence-synchronized attack and push the action below .005, they should get another shot at .0046.

Close below both moving averages around .00449 to reverse most of the damage and boost morale.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.