4 Apr 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 13, 2022


XMR opened at 215.67 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), peaked at 225.38 on Tuesday and closed the week’s action at 217.17 (+0.82%~).

The action

Week 13 action was confined to a rather tight ~7% range between 210 and 225. Both sides did their best to take control of the initiative but in the end the bulls were forced into executing a tactical retreat and had to settle with a small, but not insignificant victory.

The bulls quickly engaged the enemy and managed to briefly pierce 220. They got rejected at 225.38 on Tuesday and that was the week’s high.

Bearish reinforcements took advantage of the momentum shift and flipped 220, essentially keeping the action below that level.

Although bulls counterattacked in an attempt to print a higher high, they got rejected on three separate occasions: on Wednesday, Friday and Saturday.

Luckily for the bulls, 210 proved to be a very reliable support. Despite last minute efforts, the bears were unable to conquer the weekly 50 EMA during the weekend. Friday’s 209.00 was the week’s low point.

Action closed at 217.17, with a small +0.82% win for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are trying to defend 220.

The bulls are doing well and they are close to a big breakthrough.

As previously reported:

The bulls need to find support above 205 while waiting for the overbought RSI to cool off on most hour timeframes.

Check. Worked out as planned: support at 210, RSI already in the green zone between 50 and 70 on most charts.

If they can find the strength to flip 230, a 250 attack would be imminent. The daily golden cross, if it happens, would put the fight for 275-300 on the horizon:

Failed/in progress. The bulls were rejected just below 230, but the rapidly approaching daily golden cross is telling a different story. The bullish campaign is heading in the right direction.

If the bulls can stay in control of the newly established support above 200, they should be able to flip 230 and mount a serious 250 assault soon enough.

Close above 255 to get a shot at fighting in the exciting 300-330 range and potentially clear a path towards the ATH.

The bears aren’t worried enough. They will be forced to retreat if they don’t secure a win soon.

As previously reported:

The bears have no choice but to reinforce and defend the 220-230 area now.

Check. So far, they did manage to defend the area and restrict bullish activity above 225. But it was very close.

If they can prevent a devastating daily golden cross, the bears might be able to make a spectacular comeback [..]

Failed/in progress. Although the golden cross did not yet happen, they did very little to stop or slow it for the past week. That’s a fail in my book.

The bears need to keep control of 230 if they still want to express any offensive ambitions in the near future.

If they can flip 200 and close below the weekly 50 exponential, we might see another battle for 180.

Win that and ideally print a bearish shooting star candlestick on the monthly to expose 150.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) both sides are struggling for control inside the .0455-49 zone.

The week started at .004603 as the bears were attempting to push the action towards .0045 on a counterattack. They were blocked by bullish forces at .004540. That was the week’s low.

Bulls consistently assaulted .0047 for the rest of the week with little success. They did manage to touch .0049 on Friday when they established the weekly high point at .004904.

This triggered a vicious reaction from the bears which resulted in a considerable ~7% rejection on Sunday.

The bell closed an erratic week at .004682. A rather small +1.83% win for the bulls.

The bulls are slowly stabilizing an advantageous position above the daily 200 EMA.

As previously reported:

The bulls have to stay above .00465 and attempt a close above .0048.

Failed/in progress. The bulls did barely close above that level, at .004682, but they got crushed immediately after touching .0049.

Nevertheless, time seems to be on their side as the daily golden cross is steadily progressing.

If that happens and the bulls flip .005, we should see a .0053 assault soon. Targets in the .006-67 region are still on the table, provided nothing goes very wrong in the following weeks.

Bears are looking exhausted and almost ready to give up at this point.

As previously reported:

If the bears can force a death cross on lower timeframes, break the 4H 200 exponential and pierce .00446, a .0043 assault would soon follow.

Failed. No deathcross above the hourly, didn’t even touch the 200 EMA on the 4H and the .00454 low was certainly not very impressive.

There is a high probability that the bears will not be able to maintain the sub-.005 containment perimeter for much longer.

However, if the bears could pierce the daily 50 & 200 EMAs and confidently close below .0044, they might be able to trap the bulls and restart a full offensive campaign.

A .004 victory would expose .0035 and crush all bullish hopes for a long time.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.