28 Mar 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 12, 2022


XMR opened at 194.65 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), quickly bottomed at 188.48 on Monday and closed the week’s action at 215.41 (+10.82%~).

The action

Week 12 marked the fourth week in a row dominated by the bulls. Bears were simply unable to mount any serious resistance to stop the bulls from registering the 3rd 10%+ weekly close in a row.

Bears did their best to keep the action below 200 for the first half of the week. The weekly low was recorded on Monday at 188.48.

On Thursday the bulls started to push back and the momentum shifted. Supported by the 4H 50 EMA around 190, they initiated the 200 assault.

The resistance would only hold until the beginning of the weekend. On Saturday the bears had to give up the psychological level and retreat towards 210-220.

It was the bell that stopped the bulls: action closed at 215.41, with a confident +10.82% victory for the attackers.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are pushing back just below 220.

The bulls are very close to pulling off a remarkable monthly close.

As previously reported:

If they can gather enough energy to strike and pierce both the daily 200 and weekly 50 EMAs, around 210-215, we could see a significant rally towards 250.

Check. Bulls pierced and closed above both the daily 200 and weekly 50 exponential moving average resistances. The 250 march is next on the agenda.

The bulls need to find support above 205 while waiting for the overbought RSI to cool off on most hour timeframes.

If they can find the strength to flip 230, a 250 attack would be imminent. The daily golden cross, if it happens, would put the fight for 275-300 on the horizon:

Take control of that zone [230-250] to fight for 300 next.

The bears are in a pretty bad shape, but they can still reverse the damage, provided they move fast and decisively.

As previously reported:

The bears were marginal winners of 200 and probably won’t be able to handle another assault in that area.

Failed. Exactly as expected, they were unable to defend the fragile 200 resistance.

The bears have no choice but to reinforce and defend the 220-230 area now.

It is going to take something special, but the bears have to at least attempt to retake 200, the sooner the better.

If they can prevent a devastating daily golden cross, the bears might be able to make a spectacular comeback:

If the bears can push the action away from the danger zone and below 180, they should be able to attack 165 next. That could potentially force the bulls into adopting a more defensive stance.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bears have won back the daily 200 EMA and the bulls are slowly losing control of the action.

The bears started the week at .004718 and quickly pushed the action below .0046. Bulls were forced to defend .00455 for the first half.

On Thursday the bulls tried to counterattack but were promptly rejected around .0047.

Bears recorded the weekly low point on Friday at .004489 after briefly piercing the 2H 200 exponential support.

Bullish reinforcements arrived just in time to support a weekend rally that produced the week’s high on Sunday at .004815.

The week closed at .004598, with a small ~2.6% win for the bears.

The bullish campaign is looking shaky.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can defend .0046 and close above .00495, they should get another shot at winning .0054.

Failed. The .0046 level is still disputed territory and .00495 was untouchable.

The bulls have to stay above .00465 and attempt a close above .0048. If that happens, we could see a good monthly close in a few days.

If they can push for the golden cross on the daily and flip .005, the bulls would be in a great position to fight for targets in the .0060-67 region soon.

Bears are doing better, but there’s no time to rest right now.

As previously reported:

If the bears can pierce .0045, the bulls would be forced to defend .0043 and scrap offensive plans.

Failed. They barely touched .0045 but that was a rather gentle touch and insufficient to completely shift momentum.

If the bears can force a death cross on lower timeframes, break the 4H 200 exponential and pierce .00446, a .0043 assault would soon follow.

A confident close below .004 would trigger .0035 nightmares for the bulls.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.