21 Mar 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 11, 2022


XMR opened at 175.21 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and peaked at 204.38 on Sunday before closing the week’s action at 194.38 (+10.57%~).

The action

Week 11 was fully dominated by the bulls. Scattered bear opposition could only do so much to slow down their advancement and keep it contained inside the 175-200 range.

Bulls started the week by extending the 165 support perimeter towards the 4H 50 EMA around 175, after the .786 fibs bounce from the previous week.

Profiting from their advantageous position, with fresh golden crosses on most hour charts, the offensive was met with little to no resistance.

Bearish resolve was tested during the weekend, as bulls stormed 200 on Saturday. The psychological level held after bears defended the crucial 200 exponential on the daily, but barely.

On Sunday the bulls came back for round 2 and got rejected after touching 204.38, as hourly RSI divergences attracted a prompt bear response. That was the week’s high point.

The action closed at 194.38, with a solid +10.57% victory for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, both sides are fighting for control of 190.

The bulls are in a great position, but the window of opportunity could close soon.

As previously reported:

If they can keep the action above 180 and cascade a golden cross from lower time frames to the daily, their opponents would be in big trouble.

Check/in progress. While they did manage to take control of 180, the bulls have yet to induce the daily golden cross.

If they can gather enough energy to strike and pierce both the daily 200 and weekly 50 EMAs, around 210-215, we could see a significant rally towards 250.

Take control of that zone [230-250] to fight for 300 next.

The bears are only in real control of 1 single chart currently: the daily. It’s do or die time.

As previously reported:

The bears need to stop the bulls from taking 200 and push the action below 180 as quickly as possible.

Check/in progress. The bears were marginal winners of 200 and probably won’t be able to handle another assault in that area.

If the bears can push the action away from the danger zone and below 180, they should be able to attack 165 next. That could potentially force the bulls into adopting a more defensive stance.

Close below 150 to expose 135.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are doing their best to keep control of the recently conquered daily 200 EMA, but the bears are fighting back hard.

The bulls started the week at .004645 with a small .00455 victory which turned into Tuesday’s rally and culminated with a ~7% spike.

That was the week’s high point: .004922.

Defending bears managed to keep the rest of the action confined to a rather tight range: .00455-485.

The week closed at .004720, with a tiny ~1.34% win for the bulls.

The bullish campaign is looking very promising at this point.

Let’s check the previously reported objectives:

If the bulls can take .005, push the weekly RSI above 53 and close above .0054, we could see a .0060/64 rally soon.

Failed. Bulls missed the .005 attack (only touched .004922). The weekly relative strength index is under 52 and the .006 rally was put on hold.

If the bulls can defend .0046 and close above .00495, they should get another shot at winning .0054.

That should be enough activity to create a golden cross on the daily and open up juicy targets in the .006X range.

Bears are finally showing some life signs, but no results to be proud of so far.

The bears have to push the action below .0046 in order to retake control of the important 200 daily exponential and use that as resistance against further aggression.

Failed. Just being close to winning .0046 is not enough. The 200 daily EMA is still contested and very much controlled by the bulls.

If the bears can pierce .0045, the bulls would be forced to defend .0043 and scrap offensive plans.

A confident close below .004 would trigger .0035 nightmares for the bulls.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.