14 Mar 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 10, 2022


XMR opened at 158.38 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), peaked at 207.75 on Wednesday and closed the week’s action at 175.80 (+10.22%~).

The action

The bears started Week 10 full of confidence and were looking certain to capture 160 as the action briefly dipped below the key level, piercing the 2H 200 EMA before touching 153.33 on Monday.

Unfortunately for them, that was the week’s low point, as the bulls were very much ready to counter that move.

What followed was going to surprise the bears and most pundits: the bulls secured 160, broke 180 and touched 200 all in one single blitz attack that lasted less than 24 hours.

The impressive ~35% surge was going to be the weekly peak, as bearish reinforcements showed up to defend the daily 200 EMA and managed to block any further advance at 207.75 on Wednesday.

Bulls quickly started to lose steam and were unable to secure a stable strategic position above 200.

In less than 8 hours, the bears exploited 1/2H relative strength index divergences to initiate a counterattack, forcing the bulls to retreat to a safe .786 Fibonacci Retracement level, just above 160.

On Sunday the bulls tried to start another impulse wave up from the 4H 200 exponential, but the bears immediately stopped that higher high from developing under 195.

The action closed at 175.80, with a promising +10.22% result for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, 180 is where the action is at. Both forces are struggling for control of the area.

The bulls are in a very good position, supported by the daily 50 EMA.

As previously reported:

The bulls have to defend 150-160 and use that support to restart their offensive campaign towards 180.

Check: defended 150-160, now fighting for 180.

A close above 190 would restart hopes of fighting for 200 and 230.

Failed: very close, there is still work to do.

If they can keep the action above 180 and cascade a golden cross from lower time frames to the daily, their opponents would be in big trouble.

A close above 215 would probably trigger a 230-250 run. Take control of that zone to fight for 300 next.

The bears should prepare to defend. They don’t have a lot of options currently.

As previously reported:

Bears need to retake 160 and use its strategic value to launch attacks inside the heavily defended bull zone: 135-150.

Failed: except for Monday, this was definitely not a good week for them.

The bears need to stop the bulls from taking 200 and push the action below 180 as quickly as possible.

A close below 160 would essentially kill the freshly initiated higher high / higher low formation, while exposing 150 and 135.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are relentlessly advancing into enemy territory and the bears are struggling to come up with an answer.

The bulls started the week at .004140 with an apparent conservative approach. They were looking rather satisfied with defending positions above relevant moving averages.

All that changed mid-week, when the bears failed to spot the 4H golden cross and defend .0044 against a suprise attack. They were forced to quickly reposition above the weekly 50 EMA.

The furious bulls pinged .005344 on Wednesday, after a ~30% spike. That was the week’s high.

Bears briefly pushed back the action all the way to .0043. That only lasted until the weekend though, as the bullish retaliation resulted in a close just above the daily 200 exponential, at .004658 (+12.51%).

The bullish campaign is looking very promising at this point.

Let’s check the previously reported objectives:

Break .00425 to unlock more impressive targets [..]

Check: targets unlocked.

If the bulls can find support above .0041 and close above .00445, they should be able to target .0048 next.

Check/ongoing: good solid close at .004658 and they did venture above .0048 twice last week.

If the bulls can take .005, push the weekly RSI above 53 and close above .0054, we could see a .0060/64 rally soon.

Victory in that zone opens up an opportunity to strike critical resistances under .0075 (weekly 200 & monthly 50 EMAs).

Bears are in denial and need to find a good counter soon.

The bears need to stop the bulls from building their higher high / higher low pattern.

Failed: bears could not stop the bullish impulse.

A successful defense of .0043/44 and a close below .0041 would open up previous targets for the bears [..]

Failed (miserably): the bull blitz strike caught the bears off-guard.

The bears have to push the action below .0046 in order to retake control of the important 200 daily exponential and use that as resistance against further aggression.

If the bears can win back .0043, a close below .004 is definitely possible.

That would put .0035 back on the table, as a viable target.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.