10 Jan 2022 [analysis]

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 1, 2022


XMR opened at 239.49 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and bottomed at 179.92 on Saturday before closing the week’s action at 191.03 (-20.19%~).

The action

The bears started Week 1 of 2022 with a counter-attack that was to become a very effective 7-day campaign.

The bulls still seemed to be on top of things for the first few days, as 220 support was looking decent.

However, the bears were certainly not prepared to let the January 1st RSI divergences created by bullish assaults slide.

The prolonged counter-attack culminated mid-week, with Wednesday’s push. The bears managed to penetrate EMA-based supports on several charts, including the 4H, and touch the psychological 200 bull support level.

On Saturday, the bears aimed for the absolute nuts with a daring attack of the key 180 bull fortress and registered the weekly low at 179.92.

The bulls defended, but it was way too close. The resulting anemic bounce closed the week at 191.03 and temporarily ended the bull misery.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the outnumbered bulls are desperately preparing to defend 180 for the n’th time, as fresh bear reinforcements strategically prepare for the glory shot.

The bulls are in trouble. They failed their objective to find a reliable support above 220:

If they can find a reliable support above 200-220, the bulls would definitely be on the right path to breaking 250 and could target 300 next.

However, if they can defend 180 once more, they should get some breathing room which can be used to plan a 220-230 attack.

Provided that works out as planned, they have to commit to a 250 victory (a close above 255 more specifically) if they don’t want to scrap 300 plans.

The bears have the initiative and the tactical advantage: death crosses everywhere, weak key support in sight and an unquenched thirst for blood.

All of the previously reported objectives were accomplished last week:

The bears should definitely take the fight and engage with everything they can if the bulls dare attack 250. That’s an important level to be defending. The bulls will need to flip that resistance in order to mount 300 attacks in the near future.


It would be great if they could stop the bulls from advancing and breaking 250. If that’s not possible, they should definitely be denied access above 270 at all costs.

Double check. Good solid rejection.

If they can keep the action close to 230 for long enough, the daily golden cross window will close for the bulls and that can give the bears an opportunity to strike 200.

Triple check. Window closed.

Break that to create a wave failure and expose 180 again. Not easy, but possible.

Totally exposed at this point.

All they have to do now is not mess this up. Push fast and hard and the bulls will probably retreat to defend the vital 150 support.

If they can actually touch and pierce the weekly 200 exponential, 130 is not out of the question. Just note that the bulls will probably be prepared to fight until the last man for this territory.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bears are starting to push back and it seems to work.

The week started at .005065 with both sides fighting for control over the daily 200 EMA.

On Tuesday, the bulls finally gave up on their offensive stance and seemed content to fight below the key .005 resistance.

The insistent bears pulled off an hourly death cross on Thursday and also successfully defended it the very next day.

The weekly low of .004394 was registered on Saturday but the scattered bulls defended the .618 fibs and closed the action at .004555, a disappointing -10.05% result.

The bulls are not out of the game yet.

They did fail to accomplish the objective:

They need to break .0048 and get close enough to .005. If they can flip that and close above the daily 200 EMA, .0055 could be the next target just under the weekly 50 moving average.


Now all they have to do is make sure to reinforce .005 so it doesn’t fall into bear hands again.

Failed, but there’s no reason they cannot try again.

If the bulls can construct and ride the next impulse wave, a close above .0054 would expose .006. At that point, anything is possible:

A breakout above .006 could be massive as it might take the bulls on an exciting mission to .009-01. A win there should send the bears scattering to defend .014 next.

The bears are playing it right, but complacency could still ruin their day.

They have to pressure the bulls into fighting below .005. A break under .0045 might be their only chance ..

Check. They are probing the 4H 200 EMA in the .0044-45 range right now.

Break under that level to expose .0043 and start making plans for .0039 battles in the near future.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.