Monero Observer

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 39, 2022

Mon, 03 Oct 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 141.12 (Kraken XMR-USD) and peaked at 152.84 on Tuesday and Saturday before closing the week’s action at 137.15 (-2.95%~).

The action

Week 39 action was heavily focused on the daily 50 EMA resistance around 150 until the very last minute.

A promising golden cross on the hourly allowed the bulls to target 150 with an early blitz attack that was confidently blocked on Tuesday, after pinging 152.84.

Despite a clear ~8% rejection, the greens connected with reinforcements at 140 and launched a sustained follow-up attack that briefly pierced 150 on Friday and touched the 152.84 top once more, on Saturday.

After clear RSI divergences, bearish forces timed a strong counterattack that finally broke the 140 support and registered the period’s bottom at 136.65 on Sunday.

The action closed at 137.15, with a small -2.95% win for the bears.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are trying to recapture 140.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are having a lot of trouble staying in the macro battle.

As previously reported:

The bull campaign should focus on clearing the daily 50 EMA (~150) and weekly 200/monthly 50 EMAs (~155) resistance cluster next.

Failed. The bulls wasted another set of good opportunities to conquer 150 and push the action above the daily 50 exponential.

If the bulls can defend the key 135 support, they might get another shot at clearing the resistance cluster, attempt a higher high close above 150, and reactivate the previously reported objectives:

Victory would put the bulls in a solid position to target the 170 resistance and that event could lead to a daily golden cross and expose the 200 critical bear resistance to future attacks.

Bearish scenario

The bears are in a great position to deliver a devastating blow to their opponents.

As previously reported:

Stopping the bulls from doing damage above 150 could put 135 back on the table and enable skirmishes inside the 115-135 support perimeter.

Check/in progress. The bears managed to deny any significant bull activity above 150 and almost pinged the support with their 136.65 bottom.

If the bears could produce a confident close below 135, they should get a clear shot at 115 next. Break that to expose the psychological 100 support level next.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Kraken XMR-BTC) the bulls finally ran out of steam and were forced to give up control over the daily 50 exponential support line.

The week started at .007505 with the first in a series of bull attacks targeting .0076. The bears blocked the initiative and forced their opponents to retreat back below .0075 on Tuesday.

On Thursday, a determined bull unit pushed deeper into enemy territory and successfully pierced the resistance cluster to register the period’s top at precisely .0078.

The greens managed to keep the action above .0075 and maintain constant pressure on red forces stationed around .0077 until the very last day.

On Sunday, a furious counterattack surprised bull defenders and broke the daily 50 EMA around .0073. The ~7% rally triggered a death cross on the hourly that was going to cascade to the 2H chart just before the bell.

The action closed at .007195, registering a convincing -4.28% bear win.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are trying to stop a death cross from cascading to the 4H.

Bullish scenario

The bulls need to quickly recapture the daily 50 exponential or retreat and switch to a more defensive mode.

As previously reported:

A confident close above .0076 should expose the .008 top.

Failed. The bulls were unable to reach .008 and they also lost the advanced support position.

Unless the bulls flip back .0073, they could be forced to retreat all the way back to the .0064-66 support perimeter around the daily 200 exponential.

A fortunate close above .0076 should expose .008 and might reignite the macro battle:

[..] the weekly 200 EMA below .009 and the monthly 50 EMA around .0093.

Bearish scenario

The bears temporarily prevented the bull invasion, but there is still a lot of work to do.

As previously reported:

If the bears could force the action back below .0074 until the monthly closes in ~4 days, they might get another shot at flipping .00715.

Check/in progress. The bears won the showdown and .00715 is now fully exposed.

If the bears can keep the action below .0073 for a few more days, they should be able to reverse the 4H golden cross and focus on breaking the .0066-64 bull position next.

A confident close under the weekly 50 exponential around .00616 could expose .0055 in the near future.

Note: Kraken is used for the high amount of historical data points.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 38, 2022

Mon, 26 Sep 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 140.63 (Kraken XMR-USD) and bottomed at 134.35 on Thursday before closing the week’s action at 141.32 (+0.59%~).

The action

During Week 38 the bulls managed to confine the action to a tight ~4% range between 140 and 145 and deny bear access below the key 135 support.

The reds took advantage of the reinforced resistance zone above 140 to launch several assaults targeting 135 on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday.

All attempts were blocked and the period’s low point was registered at 134.35.

On Friday, a green counterattack set the week’s top at 146.20 after pinging the 4H 50 exponential in the .382 fib area.

The action closed at 141.32, with a tiny, but not insignificant +0.59% bull win.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are trying to reverse the hourly deathcross.

Bullish scenario

The bulls have less than 4 days to win the battle for the monthly 50 EMA.

As previously reported:

If the bulls could deny bear access below 130 and flip 145 very soon, they should be able to target the monthly 50 EMA resistance line around 150 next.

Failed/in progress. The bulls have defended well, but they were unable to retake 145 and 150 was inaccessible all week.

The bull campaign should focus on clearing the daily 50 EMA (~150) and weekly 200/monthly 50 EMAs (~155) resistance cluster next.

Victory would put the bulls in a solid position to target the 170 resistance and that event could lead to a daily golden cross and expose the 200 critical bear resistance to future attacks.

Bearish scenario

The bears are wasting chances, but they are still in control of almost every timeframe.

As previously reported:

If the bears can stay in control of 140, they should be able to target critical infrastructure around 135.

Check/in progress. Although 140 was disputed territory throughout the period, the bears did manage to create opportunities and 135 was under heavy siege during the first half.

If the reds could trap their opponents on eventual low timeframe RSI divergences, they might be able to initiate a strong countermove soon.

Stopping the bulls from doing damage above 150 could put 135 back on the table and enable skirmishes inside the 115-135 support perimeter.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Kraken XMR-BTC) the bulls temporarily secured the daily 50 exponential support line after deflecting yet another bear strike, the fourth in two weeks, that was targeting .00715.

The week started at .007237 with a weak bull attack that failed to pierce the 4H 50 EMA around .0074.

A quick bearish reaction forced the bulls to switch gears in order to defend the daily 50 EMA. However, the red move wasn’t strong enough to break the support and the week’s low point was registered at .00716 on Tuesday.

The very next day, a furious bull counterattack caught the bears by surprise and pinged .00755. .007569 was going to be the top.

A 2H goldencross on Sunday fueled a follow-up strike. The resistance level was barely defended by an exhausted bear force.

The action closed at .007517, marking a decent +3.98% bull victory.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are looking for a break above .0076.

Bullish scenario

The bull morale is increasing and .008 is now on the table.

As previously reported:

Provided the bulls can stay above the daily 50 exponential, they should be able to strike at the resistance again in the near future.

Check/in progress. Bullish reinforcements defended the daily 50 EMA and .0076 is disputed territory at the moment.

A confident close above .0076 should expose the .008 top.

Print a higher high to potentially enable previously reported macro objectives:

[..] the weekly 200 EMA below .009 and the monthly 50 EMA around .0093.

Bearish scenario

The bears are in desperate need of a shooting star formation on the monthly in order to prevent a full scale bull invasion.

As previously reported:

The bears need to cascade death crosses to the 3/4H charts and strike at the 50 EMA support until it breaks.

Failed. The continued bearish effort, while laudable, doesn’t really change the reality on the ground. The greens are still in control of all hourly charts, including the daily.

If the bears could force the action back below .0074 until the monthly closes in ~4 days, they might get another shot at flipping .00715.

Break the moving average line to expose the .0066 support just above the daily 200 EMA.

Note: Kraken is used for the high amount of historical data points.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 37, 2022

Mon, 19 Sep 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 159.35 (Kraken XMR-USD) and peaked at 166.47 on Monday before closing the week’s action at 140.49 (-11.76%~).

The action

Week 37 was dominated by the bears who managed to push the action below the key weekly 200 exponential for the 3rd time this year.

A timid bull attack that pierced 160 on Monday was intercepted and blocked by bear forces the very next day around 165. 166.47 marked the period’s high point.

The 3H RSI divergence triggered a sudden bear counterattack. The ~12% red wave caught the bulls by surprise and ended up crushing moving average support lines on every single chart.

Bull artillery units temporarily stopped the enemy on Wednesday around 145.

The greens failed twice to flip back 150 and retake the initiative, mid-week, and on Saturday, just below the 4H 50 exponential resistance.

Backed by clear death crosses on most hourly charts, bear mechanized infantry buttered through the 145 support with a big ~4% bearish engulfing candle on the very last day.

The bell interrupted the bear assault at 140.49 to record the clear -11.76% victory for the reds.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are struggling to recover from a menacing 135 ping.

Bullish scenario

The bulls need to recapture and secure 140 in order to avoid domestic backlash.

As previously reported:

If the bulls could flip 160 to support, they might get an opportunity to close above 175/180 [..]

Failed. The bulls only managed to stay in the fight for 160 for the first 48 hours and the deeper resistance zones were totally unreachable.

If the bulls could deny bear access below 130 and flip 145 very soon, they should be able to target the monthly 50 EMA resistance line around 150 next.

A confident close above the 4H 50 EMA should reverse all hourly death crosses and reignite the macro battle for the weekly 200 exponential below 160.

Any higher high above 170 could trigger a solid bull run.

Bearish scenario

The bears are very close to securing a massive win.

As previously reported:

Provided the bears can stop green activity above 170, they should get a chance to counterattack and flip back 155.

Check. The bears did it: bulls were unable to penetrate 166.47 on Tuesday and 155 is now red territory.

Close below 140 to restart the red offensive campaign and expose targets in the 115-135 support zone.

Failed/in progress. Although the bell did temporarily pause the action at 140.49, the bears forced the action below the support immediately after that. Targets in the adjacent green zone are totally exposed at the moment.

If the bears can stay in control of 140, they should be able to target critical infrastructure around 135.

Clear the 115-135 bull defensive perimeter to expose the psychological 100 support level.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Kraken XMR-BTC) the bulls are not ready to give up on their daily 50 exponential support line despite around-the-clock bear strikes targeting .00715.

The week started at .007302 with three failed bull attempts at breaking above .0074.

After pinging .00715 twice in response, the bears were finally forced to retreat to the safety of .0075 on Wednesday.

Bullish forces used the new 4H 200 EMA support around .0073 to strike .0075 at the beginning of the weekend. The period’s high point was registered on Saturday at .007633.

On Sunday, the bears retaliated by piercing .0073, which delayed a 2H golden cross.

The bulls managed to defend the .00715 support for a third time this week.

The action closed at .007229, registering a tiny -1.46% bear victory.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are very close to confirming a death cross on the 3H.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are not doing so bad, despite the negative result.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can keep the action above .00715, they should be able to use the daily 50 exponential support to launch another .0076 attack.

Check/in progress. The greens did well to deny bear access below the important .00715 support all week and printed the top at .007633 on Saturday.

Provided the bulls can stay above the daily 50 exponential, they should be able to strike at the resistance again in the near future.

Flip .0076 to target .0078 next and then move on to the previously reported objectives:

A confident close above .008 should expose the weekly 200 EMA below .009 and the monthly 50 EMA around .0093.

Bearish scenario

The bears need a bigger win but the window of opportunity is rapidly closing.

As previously reported:

If the bears can pierce .00715, they might be able to target .0066 next [..]

Failed/in progress. All attempts to breake the green position at .00715 have failed so far.

The bears need to cascade death crosses to the 3/4H charts and strike at the 50 EMA support until it breaks.

A strong close below .00715 could trigger a .0066 bull retreat and potentially expose the daily 200 exponential around .0063.

Note: Kraken is used for the high amount of historical data points.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 36, 2022

Mon, 12 Sep 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 155.80 (Kraken XMR-USD) and bottomed at 141.55 on Wednesday before closing the week’s action at 159.22 (+2.21%~).

The action

Week 36 action was very intense as neither side was fully prepared to give up control over the key weekly 200 exponential around 155.

A bull attack targeting 160 was easily blocked by bear defenders on Tuesday at 159.99.

The bear counter was strong enough to pierce moving average support levels on every chart.

Bull reinforcements intercepted the move just above the 140 support and managed to stop the bleeding at ~11% the very next day. The week’s low point was registered at 141.55 on Wednesday.

By Saturday, thanks to speculative bull efforts, most of the death crosses were successfully reversed and the bears were forced to retreat all the way back above the 160 resistance. 161.90 was the top.

The action closed at 159.22, with a small +2.21% win for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are struggling to defend 160.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are still in the fight, but they need to print a higher high soon.

As previously reported:

Although the bull campaign is now supported by the daily 50 EMA, the greens still need to secure the 200 weekly and 50 monthly exponentials.

Check/in progress. The bulls barely managed to push the action back above these key levels, but all three macro moving averages are still disputed territory.

If the bulls can pierce 160 and close above 175 (preferably 180) [..]

Failed/in progress. The bulls came very close to the 160 resistance on Tuesday and temporarily pierced the level on Saturday, but that’s about it.

If the bulls could flip 160 to support, they might get an opportunity to close above 175/180 and that should expose the 200 psychological level.

Bearish scenario

The bears are fighting back hard but the results aren’t convincing.

As previously reported:

The reds want to keep the action below 170, ideally under 155. [..] A clean close below 140 could trigger a bull retreat [..]

Failed. The bears orchestrated an impressive rally, but that was blocked at 141.55 on Wednesday. They also failed to secure 155/160.

Provided the bears can stop green activity above 170, they should get a chance to counterattack and flip back 155.

Close below 140 to restart the red offensive campaign and expose targets in the 115-135 support zone.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Kraken XMR-BTC) the bears finally got some breathing room after punishing a clear bull overextension.

The week started at .007800 with a bullish attempt to break the .008 resistance that was blocked on Tuesday. .008011 was going to be the week’s high point.

Just hours after that move, the bears took advantage of RSI divergences on several hourly charts to initiate their counterattack.

The bulls managed to maintain an advanced support position around the 4H 50 EMA until Friday when the reds finally captured 0.0076.

Bear forces continued to push deeper into enemy territory, and started focusing on their next target: the 4H 200 exponential support below .0072.

The bell temporarily interrupted the action at .007336 to register the first bear win in 4 weeks: -5.71%.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are closing in on the daily 50 EMA around .0072.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are looking for a higher low to refuel their offensive campaign.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can finish the job by taking control of .008, they should be able to target the weekly 200 EMA below .009 next.

Failed. The bulls pinged the resistance for the first time since June 2021, but the .008011 peak was short-lived.

If the bulls can keep the action above .00715, they should be able to use the daily 50 exponential support to launch another .0076 attack.

A confident close above .008 should expose the weekly 200 EMA below .009 and the monthly 50 EMA around .0093.

Bearish scenario

The bears can’t afford to celebrate minor victories at this point.

As previously reported:

If the bears could punish the overextended bull force by promptly acting on eventual RSI divergences [..] (2 weeks)

Check. The bears did well to spot RSI divergences and managed to execute a nicely timed counterattack that prevented the bulls from taking control of .008.

Flipping .0075 to resistance might give the bears a clear shot at reversing some golden crosses and could expose the .007 support. (last week)

Check/in progress. The action is now below .0075 and death crosses are starting to appear on lower hourly charts.

If the bears can pierce .00715, they might be able to target .0066 next and potentially reignite the fight for the daily 200 EMA around .0062.

Note: Kraken is used for the high amount of historical data points.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 35, 2022

Mon, 05 Sep 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 146.40 (Kraken XMR-USD) and peaked at 156.57 on Sunday before closing the week’s action at 155.77 (+6.40%~).

The action

Week 35 action was dominated by a slow and methodical bullish advance towards the 155 resistance.

Bear forces switched to defensive mode after their attack move was intercepted and blocked on Monday near 145.

Even though they were under heavy artillery fire, the bulls managed to consistently establish slightly higher lows and produced an hourly golden cross mid-week, which cascaded to the 2H on Sunday.

No real counterattack opportunities were available to the reds, as the bull tactics preserved the RSI inside the normal range for the entire period.

The action closed at 155.77, with a well deserved +6.40% result for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are looking for support above 155.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are doing better, but the macro timeframes are still controlled by the bears.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can close above 155, preferably 160, they should be able to stop the bleeding [..]

Check/in progress. The bulls barely closed above 155, but 160 was unreachable all week.

Although the bull campaign is now supported by the daily 50 EMA, the greens still need to secure the 200 weekly and 50 monthly exponentials.

If the bulls can pierce 160 and close above 175 (preferably 180), they should be able to expose the 200 psychological level soon.

Bearish scenario

The bears need to find an opening soon and strike back hard.

As previously reported:

Bearish objectives are clear: reinforce and defend 150 and push for a clean close below 140.

Failed. The bears could not defend 150 and they were unable to find a viable counter all week.

The reds want to keep the action below 170, ideally under 155.

If successful, they might get a chance to flip back 150 and resume their offensive plans.

A clean close below 140 could trigger a bull retreat back to the safety of the 115-130 support zone.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Kraken XMR-BTC) the bulls are slowly but surely advancing towards the weekly 200 exponential below .009.

The week started at .007474 with an anemic bear attempt to break .0073 that was immediately blocked on Monday. .007312 was going to be the week’s low point.

Bullish efforts left behind a classic higher high / higher low pattern on hourly charts. The support line was moved deeper into enemy territory, from .0074 on Wednesday to .0075 on Friday.

Bear forces rushed to defend .0077 after the bulls finally pierced .0076 in the second half.

The top was registered at .007875 during the last day.

The bell temporarily paused the rampage at .007780. The bulls secured a comfortable +3.90% win.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are closing in on .008.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are in full control of the action and a parabolic move up is a real possibility.

As previously reported:

Bulls are in a great position to target .0078 next. A close above .008 should expose the .0085-009 resistance zone below the weekly 200 EMA.

Failed/in progress. Although the bulls did briefly pierce .0078 on Sunday, the action closed just below the resistance.

If the bulls can finish the job by taking control of .008, they should be able to target the weekly 200 EMA below .009 next.

A confident close above .009 should expose the monthly 50 EMA around .0093 and seriously threaten the macro bear supremacy.

Bearish scenario

The bears are very exposed right now and they need to prepare for the worst.

As previously reported:

If the bears could punish the overextended bull force by promptly acting on eventual RSI divergences, they might be able to stop a potential .0078 massacre.

Check/in progress. Yes, the bears did barely hang on to .0078 until the bell, but bullish forces were spotted around .0079 today.

RSI values on all charts are in bull territory right now. The bears need to stop their opponents from breaking above .009.

Flipping .0075 to resistance might give the bears a clear shot at reversing some golden crosses and could expose the .007 support.

Note: Kraken is used for the high amount of historical data points.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 34, 2022

Mon, 29 Aug 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 154.47 (Kraken XMR-USD) and bottomed at 141.68 on Friday before closing the week’s action at 146.40 (-5.28%~).

The action

Week 34 action was confined to a tight ~3% range between 150 and 155 until the weekend, when the bulls finally ran out of steam and were forced to abort their mission to recapture the daily 50 and weekly 200 EMAs.

The reds defended well for the first 48 hours and started to push back with a menacing 4H deathcross on Wednesday.

Bullish forces were surprised by a furious red countermove that broke the range support with an unexpected three black crows formation just before the weekend. The low point was registered at 141.68 on Friday.

In their rush to defend 140, the greens intercepted the bears and managed to contain their counterattack by Sunday.

The action closed at 146.40, with a confident -5.28% bear win.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are desperately struggling to recapture 150.

Bullish scenario

The bulls need to regroup and strike back, but time is not on their side.

As previously reported:

Macro bull supremacy is in danger. Unless the bulls keep the action above 150, they could be forced to give up control of the 200 weekly and 50 monthly moving average support lines.

Failed/in progress. The bulls were unable to keep the action above 150 and were indeed forced to, at least temporarily, give up control of the 200 weekly and 50 daily EMAs.

The monthly is still contested, but the close is only a few days away.

If the bulls can close above 155, preferably 160, they should be able to stop the bleeding and expose previously reported targets:

A confident close above 175 should put the psychological 200 level back on the table.

Bearish scenario

The bears now have the momentum and they can only lose if they drop the ball.

As previously reported:

If the bears could push and keep the action below 150, they should be able to strike 140 again.

Check/in progress. The bears exposed 140 after capturing 150, but the area is still contested.

Bearish objectives are clear: reinforce and defend 150 and push for a clean close below 140.

If successful, the move could enable skirmishes inside the 115-130 bull support perimeter and might expose the psychological 100 level.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Kraken XMR-BTC) the bulls have displayed impressive tactical skills with a last minute surprise counterattack that devastated the opposition.

The week started at .007182 with a bullish attempt to break .00725 that was easily blocked on Tuesday.

Heavy bear pressure forced the greens into a more defensive stance. Bulls opted for a strategical retreat, looking to regroup above the .007 support.

Bearish efforts to flip the 2H 200 exponential on Thursday and Saturday were unsuccessful. The .007006 bottom was registered on Saturday.

On the very last day, bull reinforcements executed a blitz counterattack against an exhausted red army. The move crushed .00725 and pierced the .0074 resistance.

The bell briefly interrupted the intense action at the period’s high point: .007488. The bulls pulled off a sneaky last-minute +4.22% win.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, bull forces were spotted around .0075.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are looking invincible, but overextension is a real danger.

As previously reported:

Provided the bulls can push the action above .0074, they should be able to unlock previously reported objectives [..]

Check/in progress. The bulls have flipped .0074 and are now pushing deeper into enemy territory.

Bulls are in a great position to target .0078 next.

A close above .008 should expose the .0085-009 resistance zone below the weekly 200 EMA.

Bearish scenario

The bears are in a very tricky spot right now.

As previously reported:

The bears need to pierce .007 and push the action back inside the wedge, in order to prevent a potential bull breakout.

Failed. The .007006 low was simply not good enough to prevent the spectacular bull breakout.

If the bears could punish the overextended bull force by promptly acting on eventual RSI divergences, they might be able to stop a potential .0078 massacre.

Flip back .0074 to reignite the fight for .007 and expose .00675 and the .00655-64 bull support area.

Note: Kraken is used for the high amount of historical data points.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 33, 2022

Mon, 22 Aug 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 168.01 (Kraken XMR-USD) and bottomed at 141.17 on Friday before closing the week’s action at 154.56 (-8.02%~).

The action

The bulls ran out of steam during the second half of Week 33 and were unable to stop the bears from registering their first win in 7 weeks.

Despite repeated bull attacks on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday, the reds did very well to defend the .618 fibs resistance zone around 170.

Outnumbered and exhausted, the overextended bull force simply had no good response to Friday’s blitz counterattack. The bears crushed the 4H 200 EMA below 160 and continued deep into enemy territory, pushing the greens all the way back to the 140 support.

Thanks to last minute reinforcements, the bulls managed to recover some lost ground during the weekend and put an end to the devastating ~18% bear rally.

The bell temporarily paused the action just below the daily 50 exponential, at 154.56, securing a solid -8.02% victory for the bears.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are struggling to flip back the 155 resistance.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are in trouble, but there is still hope.

As previously reported:

The bulls need to pierce 170 and close above 175 to expose the .786 fibs around 185 and the psychological 200 level.

Failed. The bulls did ping 170 several times, but they were unable to touch 175 and the .786 fibs zone was unreachable all week.

Macro bull supremacy is in danger. Unless the bulls keep the action above 150, they could be forced to give up control of the 200 weekly and 50 monthly moving average support lines.

Pierce 160 to reverse death crosses on most hourly charts, preserve the 4H golden cross, and expose the golden pocket around 170.

A confident close above 175 should put the psychological 200 level back on the table.

Bearish scenario

The bears finally got their win, but there is still a lot of work to do.

As previously reported:

If the bears can maintain control of 170 and break the ascending triangle with a sub-160 close, they should be able to target the daily 50 EMA above 150 and expose 135.

Check. The bears accomplished all of their objectives: 170 was defended, 135 was exposed with the 141.17 low, and they closed below 160 (at 154.56).

If the bears could push and keep the action below 150, they should be able to strike 140 again.

Close below 135 to expose the 115-125 bull support area.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Kraken XMR-BTC) the bulls are throwing everything they got at the .0072-73 resistance zone.

The week started at .006909 with a failed bear attempt at breaking .00675 that was blocked just below the 3H 200 EMA.

The first bull attack hit .0072 on Tuesday. Despite a prompt rejection, the greens came back for rounds two and three on Wednesday and Friday. Bearish forces managed to defend and the attackers were forced to constantly retreat and regroup.

On the very last day, one final bull push briefly pierced .0073 and registered the period’s high point at .007319.

The action closed at .007185, with a +3.99% win for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are trying to establish a temporary support above .0072.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are very close to an important victory.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can stay above .00675, ideally above .007, they should be able to target .0073 again [..] (2 weeks)

Check. The bulls defended .00675 and .0073 was exposed all week.

Close above .0072 to get access to .0074 .. (last week)

Failed/in progress. The bulls were very close, but they only managed to close just below their target, at .007185.

Provided the bulls can push the action above .0074, they should be able to unlock previously reported objectives:

[..] clear a path to .0078/80 and expose the .0085-009 resistance zone below the weekly 200 EMA.

Bearish scenario

The bears desperately need to retake the initiative.

As previously reported:

A successful defense of .007 and a confident close below .00675 is the main bear priority right now

Failed. Despite some well executed defensive maneuvers, the bears were unable to close below .00675 and secure the .007 level.

The bears need to pierce .007 and push the action back inside the wedge, in order to prevent a potential bull breakout.

Close below .00675 to expose the .00655-64 bull support area and potentially target the .0062 structural support line.

Note: Kraken is used for the high amount of historical data points.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 32, 2022

Mon, 15 Aug 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 164.77 (Kraken XMR-USD) and peaked at 171.96 on Tuesday before closing the week’s action at 168.04 (+1.92%~).

The action

Week 32 action brought the 6th consecutive win for the bulls, despite the inconclusive result.

Bullish forces took control of the initiative and launched an attack that briefly pierced 170 on Tuesday. Bears reacted promptly to block access above the resistance. 171.96 was the week’s high point.

The violent counterattack that followed easily broke the 165 bull outpost and pushed the greens back ~9% to defend the 2H 200 exponential above 155 midweek. The level was sufficiently reinforced and bears were unable to penetrate the support after 4 days of struggle. 155.81 was the bottom.

Bears finally gave up on their offensive ambitions, and were forced to defend 170 again, during the weekend.

The action finally closed at 168.04, with a small +1.92% bull win.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, both sides are preparing for the inevitable ascending triangle breakout.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are very close to the daily 200 EMA, but the reds aren’t giving them a clear shot.

As previously reported:

If only the bulls could defend 165, they should get an opportunity to target the daily 200 EMA resistance very soon [..]

Check/in progress. The bulls did close above that level, at 168.04, but the daily resistance was untouchable. Furthermore, the support is very fragile, as 165 is still contested territory.

The bulls need to pierce 170 and close above 175 to expose the .786 fibs around 185 and the psychological 200 level.

If successful, they could target the 225-230 region next.

Bearish scenario

The bears are defending well, but they really need a win to turn things around.

As previously reported:

Ideally, the bears need to stay in control of the .618 fibs and keep the action below 175. That should at least delay the disastrous daily golden cross that is currently on the horizon.

Check/in progress. The reds managed to contain the action below 175, but it is impossible to delay the daily golden cross indefinitely.

If the bears can counterattack and close below 150, they should be able to produce some death crosses on lower timeframes and expose 135 & the 100-120 bull support zone.

Failed. The bears were blocked at 155.81 and that was insufficient to produce any death crosses on hourly charts.

If the bears can maintain control of 170 and break the ascending triangle with a sub-160 close, they should be able to target the daily 50 EMA above 150 and expose 135.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Kraken XMR-BTC) the bulls are running out of steam, but the bears aren’t keen on capitalizing.

The week started at .007122 with a failed bear attempt at breaking .007 that was blocked just below the 4H 50 EMA.

A visibly tired bull force executed a counterattack that almost pinged .0072 before getting blocked on Tuesday. .007199 was the period’s high point.

Momentum shifted and the bears managed to break .007 and the .006561 lower low bottom was printed on Thursday.

Fortunately for the bulls, the 4H 200 exponential support was strong enough and the bears were forced back to defend .007 during the weekend.

The action finally closed at .006909, with a -3.05% win for the bears.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are trying to undo the death cross on the 1H chart.

Bullish scenario

The bulls have overextended and they probably need to regroup.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can stay above .00675, ideally above .007, they should be able to target .0073 again [..]

Failed/in progress. The bulls failed to stay above .007, although .00675 was protected for most of the week. .0073 was totally unreachable.

The bulls should focus on preventing further death crosses and defend the daily 50 exponential by keeping the action above .00655.

Close above .0072 to get access to .0074 and unlock the previously reported targets:

[..] clear a path to .0078/80 and expose the .0085-009 resistance zone below the weekly 200 EMA.

Bearish scenario

The bears now have the initiative but they cannot afford to waste time.

As previously reported:

A blitz .007 flip would put the bears in a good position to target .00675 next.

Check/in progress. The bears did well to flip .007, but they only got a taste of .00675 on Thursday.

A successful defense of .007 and a confident close below .00675 is the main bear priority right now. Previous analysis is still valid:

Clear the .00655-64 support area to expose the .006-615 triangle support and force bulls into a very defensive stance.

Note: switched to Kraken due to Poloniex issues; these particular exchanges are used because of the high amount of historical data points.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 31, 2022

Mon, 08 Aug 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 154.78 (Kraken XMR-USD) and peaked at 171.06 on Sunday before closing the week’s action at 164.87 (+6.36%~).

The action

Week 31 action was confined to a tight ~4% range, between 155 and 160, until the very last day when the bulls managed to finally break the resistance and score their 5th consecutive win.

The bears got very close to the 150 support on Monday, but were easily rejected at the 1H 200 EMA. 152.58 was going to be the low point of the week.

Bulls opted for a simple tactical approach to systematically push the action towards the 160-165 resistance area once every 24 hours or so and reinforce at the solid 4H 50 exponential support whenever necessary.

The parallel channel was finally broken by speculative bull efforts on Sunday and the bears were forced to retreat towards 170, below the daily 200 EMA resistance line.

The action finally closed at 164.87, with a +6.36% win for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are trying to defend an advanced support position above 165.

Bullish scenario

The greens must be proud of the newly constructed bullish engulfing candle on the daily, but they need to focus on clearing the 175-200 resistance zone next.

As previously reported:

Provided the bulls can stay above 150 and pierce 165, they should get the chance to target the daily 200 EMA resistance next, around 175.

Check/in progress. The bulls did well to prevent 150 attacks and were able to pierce 165 on Sunday and close just under that target at 164.87. However, the area is still unsecured, as 165 is still contested territory.

If only the bulls could defend 165, they should get an opportunity to target the daily 200 EMA resistance very soon, and unlock previously reported targets:

Clear the 175-185 resistance zone to expose the psychological 200 level.

Bearish scenario

The bears lost control of the monthly 50 & weekly 200 EMAs and are their macro timeframe supremacy is in real danger now.

As previously reported:

Bears need to reinforce the resistance area, from 165 to the .786 fib around 185. If they can prevent a higher high, they might be able to strike back.

Failed/in progress. Although the bears did manage to block bull access above 165 for the first 6 days, in the end they were unable to prevent a higher high.

Ideally, the bears need to stay in control of the .618 fibs and keep the action below 175. That should at least delay the disastrous daily golden cross that is currently on the horizon.

If the bears can counterattack and close below 150, they should be able to produce some death crosses on lower timeframes and expose 135 & the 100-120 bull support zone.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Kraken XMR-BTC) the bulls are creating great opportunities, but the overextension risk is real.

The week started at .006642 with a bull move targeting .007, that was rejected on Tuesday.

Despite consistent red pressure, the bulls were able to mount several attacks aimed at the .007-71 resistance zone. Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday assaults were all defended by the bears.

On the very last day, the bulls finally broke out of the 4H ascending triangle after a decisive strike that pushed the action deep into enemy territory and pinged .00741. That was going to be the week’s high point.

Bearish forces reacted quickly and managed to push the action back inside the April/May triangle with a last minute effort.

The action finally closed at .007126, with a +7.24% win for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are keen on retaking .007.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are very close to a big win, but they can’t afford falling into another bear trap.

As previously reported:

If the bulls stay above .0065, they should be able to orchestrate another .007 assault.

Check/in progress. The bulls did briefly push the action above the resistance, but they ran out of steam and had to back off to defend .007.

If the bulls can stay above .00675, ideally above .007, they should be able to target .0073 again and unlock previously reported targets:

[..] clear a path to .0078/80 and expose the .0085-009 resistance zone below the weekly 200 EMA.

Bearish scenario

The bears are still in the game, but we are in overtime.

As previously reported:

Bears need to defend .00725 and close below .0064.

Failed/in progress. The bears took advantage of the double top on the 4H RSI to sucessfully reject the bull attack on Sunday, but they were nowhere close to their .0064 offensive target.

A blitz .007 flip would put the bears in a good position to target .00675 next.

Clear the .00655-64 support area to expose the .006-615 triangle support and force bulls into a very defensive stance.

Note: switched to Kraken due to Poloniex issues; these particular exchanges are used because of the high amount of historical data points.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 30, 2022

Mon, 01 Aug 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 151.40 (Kraken XMR-USD) and peaked at 166.35 on Thursday before closing the week’s action at 155.01 (+2.47%~).

The action

Week 30 action was back-and-forth, but the bulls managed to just barely close above the monthly 50 EMA and score their 4th consecutive win.

The bears started with a strong move that pushed their opponents back to the safety of the 4H 200 exponential support just above 135.

Bullish reinforcements deflected the attack after 24 hours and the weekly low point was recorded at 137.71.

The very powerful counterattack that followed was met with little resistance: 150 was easily pierced on Wednesday and the bulls kept pushing towards 170.

Despite going against the highest daily RSI since April (66+), defending forces took advantage of the clear 3H RSI divergence to strike back and put an end to the massive ~20% bull rally. 166.35 was the top.

The weekend was dominated by the bears, but their last minute efforts were not strong enough to contain the action under the monthly 50 EMA.

The action finally closed at 155.01, with a +2.47% win for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, both sides are struggling for control over the important weekly 200 EMA around 155.

Bullish scenario

The bullish military operation is going according to plan, despite unspectacular statistics for the previous period.

As previously reported:

[..] this pace is unsustainable and they might need to reinforce, print a higher low, and then strike again. Bulls need to stay above 130-140 and break above the monthly 50 EMA around 155, preferably by the end of this week, which coincides with the monthly close.

Check. This is precisely what the bulls did, and it worked. The bulls successfully established a higher low above 140 and closed above the 155 monthly 50 EMA, but barely.

Provided the bulls can stay above 150 and pierce 165, they should get the chance to target the daily 200 EMA resistance next, around 175.

Clear the 175-185 resistance zone to expose the psychological 200 level.

Bearish scenario

The bears are in trouble, but there are ways to get out of it.

As previously reported:

A confident close below 135 would put previously reported targets back on the table (last week)

Failed. The bears had one single opportunity to break 135 on Tuesday, but failed to reach and pierce the key support: the 137.71 bottom was a disappointing result.

Bears should prioritize fortification of the monthly 50 and weekly 200 EMAs defenses, in the 150-155 range. (2 weeks)

Failed/in progress. The bears lost the monthly 50 EMA battle, at least temporarily. Furthermore, the weekly 200 EMA is now under heavy artillery attack. The bearish macro supremacy is actively contested.

Bears need to reinforce the resistance area, from 165 to the .786 fib around 185. If they can prevent a higher high, they might be able to strike back.

Close below 150 to expose 135 again and unlock previously reported targets:

Pierce the key resistance to attempt a move on 120 next and expose 100 to future attacks.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Kraken XMR-BTC) the bulls are still dominating, despite a minor red result on paper.

The week started at .006716 with a weak bear strike targeting .00655, that failed to pierce the 4H 50 exponential.

The bulls retaliated with an explosive counterattack, which demolished .0068 on Tuesday and printed a higher high the next day, after pinging .007306. That was going to be the week’s high point.

Bearish forces promptly intervened to immediately force the action back below .007.

After a bear-dominated second half, the action finally closed at .006645, with an inconclusive -0.98% result for the reds.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are getting ready for their next offensive move aimed at the .007 resistance.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are looking confident and ready for action.

As previously reported:

Nothing really changed for the bulls. They still need to close above .00675 and punch hard at the .007-725 resistance zone.

Failed/in progress. The bulls performed well, briefly pierced the resistance zone with the .007306 top, but they were ultimately unable to close above .00675.

If the bulls stay above .0065, they should be able to orchestrate another .007 assault.

Close above .0073 to clear a path to .0078/80 and expose the .0085-009 resistance zone below the weekly 200 EMA.

Bearish scenario

The bears are in a precarious position, despite the marginal win.

As previously reported:

If the bears can block bull access above .00675, they should get another chance to break .0064 and strike .00615 again.

Failed. Offensive plans had to be postponed. In the end, the bears did close below .00675 (at .006645), but bulls were granted easy access above the fragile resistance for most of the week.

Bears need to defend .00725 and close below .0064. That’s the only way they might be able to target .00615 and unlock previously reported targets:

[..] a chance to pierce .00575 and expose .00525-55 [..]

Note: switched to Kraken due to Poloniex issues; these particular exchanges are used because of the high amount of historical data points.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 29, 2022

Mon, 25 Jul 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 138.00 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and peaked at 153.75 on Friday before closing the week’s action at 151.36 (+11.34%~).

The action

Week 29 was rewarding for the bulls: they are now controlling the daily 50 EMA for the first time in 3 months.

After an uneventful 48 hours, bullish forces finally reached the 150 resistance area on Wednesday.

Despite sustained bullish efforts to break through, the bears managed to defend well during the first half and push their opponents back to the 4H 50 exponential support around 145 before the weekend.

Bulls were not ready to settle with Friday’s 153.75 high and came back for round two on the very last day. However, RSI divergences signaled the futility of their attempt: bears quickly reacted to block the weak attack before it could pierce the .618 fibs.

The action finally closed at 151.36, with a +11.34% solid win for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, bears are attempting a death cross on the hourly, targeting the 130-135 support zone.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are doing well, but this pace is unsustainable and they might need to reinforce, print a higher low, and then strike again.

As previously reported:

The bulls need to stay above the daily 50 exponential around 140 if they want to attack the golden pocket around 155 next.

Check/in progress. The bulls defended 140 and got very close to the 155 resistance on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Sunday.

A close above 155 would deny a potential bear death cross on the weekly, fuel an offensive campaign in the 170-180 resistance zone and could also expose the psychological 200 level.

Failed/in progress. Unfortunately, the 153.75 high was insufficient to fuel the 170-180 offensive campaign.

Bulls need to stay above 130-140 and break above the monthly 50 EMA around 155, preferably by the end of this week, which coincides with the monthly close.

Provided all goes according to plan, we should see action in the 170-200 range soon.

Bearish scenario

The bears were forced to back off, but they managed to defend critical infrastructure and are now ready to strike back.

As previously reported:

Bears should prioritize fortification of the monthly 50 and weekly 200 EMAs defenses, in the 150-155 range. Provided they can keep control over the macro timeframes, bears should be able to execute a countermove soon, targeting 135.

Check/in progress. This is exactly what the bears did, and it worked rather well. They are still in control of macro timeframes and 135 is exposed to attacks.

A confident close below 135 would put previously reported targets back on the table:

Pierce the key resistance to attempt a move on 120 next and expose 100 to future attacks.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are still on the offensive, but bears are not ready to give up on to the .00675 level.

The week started at .006555 with a strong bear defense of .00665 and a counterattack that lasted roughly 72 hours and which pushed bulls all the way back to the .00615 support.

The weekly low point was registed on Wednesday, at .006117.

Bullish forces managed to get back in the game and kept the pressure on the .00665-67 resistance area for the rest of the period.

The action finally closed at .006687, with a decent +2.05% result for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are attempting a break above .00675.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are still in a good position, but they should prepare to encounter heavy resistance ahead.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can stay above .0064, they should be able to attack the .00665-675 resistance zone and expose .007-725 very soon.

Check/in progress. Although bears did briefly penetrate .0064 on Tuesday, bulls reacted quickly and pushed the action back above that level the very next day. That permitted them to keep the pressure on the resistance for the rest of the week.

Nothing really changed for the bulls. They still need to close above .00675 and punch hard at the .007-725 resistance zone.

Success would give them control over the weekly and monthly moving averages and bears might have no option but to retreat deeper in order to defend previously reported targets:

A confident break above the monthly 50 EMA could trigger a .009 rally in the near future.

Bearish scenario

The bears suffered yet another loss and nothing seems to be going their way at this point.

As previously reported:

Unless the bears somehow flip back .0064, they should prepare to defend the weekly and monthly EMA’s above .007. An optimistic .0061 break could expose the previously reported targets [..]

Failed. Despite speculative efforts during the first half which pinged the 4H 200 EMA at .006117, the bears were unable to keep the action below .0064 long enough for reinforcements to arrive.

If the bears can block bull access above .00675, they should get another chance to break .0064 and strike .00615 again.

A close below .0061 could unlock previously reported targets:

[..] they should get a chance to pierce .00575 and expose .00525-55 [..]

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 28, 2022

Mon, 18 Jul 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 129.26 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and peaked at 145.00 on Saturday before closing the week’s action at 135.95 (+5.04%~).

The action

Bears suffered a heavy defeat during the second half of Week 28 and the bulls got full control of the 135 resistance level.

On Monday the bears successfully deflected a bullish attempt to pierce the 4H 200 EMA just below the .382 fibs around 132.

The small victory triggered a ~10% rally targeting 120, however bullish reinforcements arrived just in time to defend the support, put an end to the attack mid-week and shift initiative on the ground.

Friday was the most important day of the period: the ascending triangle finally collapsed after the bulls managed to build a 3H golden cross and quickly flip 135, turning that back into a key support for the first time in more than a month.

The weekly high point was registered at 145.00, after bearish forces barely defended the .5 Fibonacci Retracement Level on Saturday to gain back some of the lost territory just before the bell.

The action finally closed at 135.95, with a +5.04% win for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls have restarted the 145 offensive.

Bullish scenario

The bulls now have the momentum, but nothing is written in stone.

As previously reported:

As the action is fast approaching the apex of the ascending triangle structure, bulls need to deny bearish access below ~120 and break 135 as soon as possible.

Check. Bulls defended 120 and are now in control of 135. The triangle was broken to the upside.

The bulls need to stay above the daily 50 exponential around 140 if they want to attack the golden pocket around 155 next.

A close above 155 would deny a potential bear death cross on the weekly, fuel an offensive campaign in the 170-180 resistance zone and could also expose the psychological 200 level.

Bearish scenario

The bears should prepare to defend against what looks like imminent attacks on the horizon.

As previously reported:

If they can stay in control of 135 and keep bulls away from 150, the bears should get another shot to breach 95 [..] (2 weeks)

A close under 100/95 should unlock previously projected targets [..] (last week)

Failed. The bears lost 135 and 150 is now exposed to bull attacks. 100 was out of reach, as bears were pretty much forced into a defensive stance after being denied access under 120 on Wednesday.

Bears should prioritize fortification of the monthly 50 and weekly 200 EMAs defenses, in the 150-155 range.

Provided they can keep control over the macro timeframes, bears should be able to execute a countermove soon, targeting 135.

Pierce the key resistance to attempt a move on 120 next and expose 100 to future attacks.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls have managed to push the monthly RSI above 50 for the first time in almost two years.

The week started at .006197 with a strong bull offensive of the .0064 resistance that lasted almost 72 hours.

The bulls inevitably ran out of steam mid-week and had no option but to retreat and wait for reinforcements above .0061, at the 4H 50 exponential support line.

On Thursday the bears failed to defend .0064 against a second assault and were forced to retreat.

The weekly high point was recorded during the weekend, on Saturday, when zealous bullish forces pushed deep into enemy territory around .00675 to ping .006772.

Last minute bear reinforcements arrived in the area to punish the bull overextension and stop the bleeding.

The action closed at .006552, with an important +5.69% result for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are trying to build a higher low around .0065.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are in a great position to finally initiate a macro offensive on the weekly and monthly charts.

As previously reported:

The bull win conditions are simple to understand: reinforce .0062 and move on to clear the .0064-00665 resistance area to unlock exciting new targets [..]

Check/in progress. The bears were only allowed brief access below .0062 for less than a day before getting rejected. .0064 was turned into support and the bulls almost flipped .00665 during the weekend.

If the bulls can stay above .0064, they should be able to attack the .00665-675 resistance zone and expose .007-725 very soon.

A confident break above the monthly 50 EMA could trigger a .009 rally in the near future.

Bearish scenario

The bears are running out of options as the weekly death cross is looking more and more fragile.

As previously reported:

If the bears can’t retake .0062 fast, they should get ready to prepare a solid weekly 200 EMA defense in the .007-0072 range very soon. [..] provided an unlikely black swan event occurs and bears do get access to .006 [..]

Failed. The bears had one opportunity to win back .0062 and expose .006, but were unable to capitalize. The moving average resistances are now clear targets for the bulls.

Unless the bears somehow flip back .0064, they should prepare to defend the weekly and monthly EMA’s above .007.

An optimistic .0061 break could expose the previously reported targets:

[..] they should get a chance to pierce .00575 and expose .00525-55 [..]

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 27, 2022

Mon, 11 Jul 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 116.10 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and peaked at 133.78 on Friday before closing the week’s action at 129.45 (+11.44%~).

The action

Week 27 action was dictated by the bulls. Bears were forced to focus on defending the 130 resistance just below the 4H 200 EMA.

The bears lost initiative after a failed attempt at breaking the bull support above 110 on Monday. The week’s low point was recorded at 111.00.

Bulls retaliated immediately and started reversing deathcrosses on the 1H & 2H charts. The resulting ~20% rally pushed bears back to defend the ascending triangle’s resistance line around 130.

After recording the period’s high point at 133.78 on Friday, the bulls ran out of steam just as multiple factors started flashing red: the 2H RSI divergence, 4H 200 exponential resistance and the .382 fibs ping.

Despite the bear counterattack, on Sunday, bulls got the chance to lock some of their territorial gains, after 120 support held.

The action finally closed at 129.45, with a +11.44% bullish result.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, both sides are struggling for control between the 4H 50 and 200 EMAs.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are making progress, but it would not be wise to declare victory just yet.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can stay above 120, they should get another chance to strike 135 this week. (2 weeks)

A confident close above 135 is the main priority now for the bulls. Everything else is pretty much dependant on that objective. (last week)

Failed/in progress. The support is still operational and the bulls did get another shot at piercing 135. Unfortunately, they were blocked at the 133.78 high on Friday.

As the action is fast approaching the apex of the ascending triangle structure, bulls need to deny bearish access below ~120 and break 135 as soon as possible.

Previous analysis is still valid:

If they can accomplish that, previously reported targets would become viable once more: the 150-160 resistance zone in the short term and 180/200 key levels in the longer term.

Bearish scenario

The bears lost a battle, but they still got the edge.

As previously reported:

If they can stay in control of 135 and keep bulls away from 150, the bears should get another shot to breach 95 [..]

Check/in progress. Although bulls did manage to recapture some levels and delay a counteroffensive, the bears have successfully defended the 130-135 resistance zone and are now getting ready to attempt a break below 120.

A close under 100/95 should unlock previously projected targets:

Breaking 80 would probably expose the 40-50 support area in the near future.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls somehow managed to heroically defend the daily 50 EMA, despite a very strong bearish move.

The week started at .006034 and even though anemic efforts confined the action to a very tight ~3% range during the first half, the weekend was an unexpected roller coaster.

The .006-0062 range was disputed until Thursday, when bulls temporarily pierced the resistance to gently ping .0063.

A blitz counterattack exploited an opening in the bull lines and triggered an ~8% rally to the downside.

The bears overextended and finally ran out of steam around .0058 on Sunday.

Bullish reinforcements joined in just in time to deny what was shaping to be a clear -4%~ red win.

The bell temporarily interrupted the action at .006200, to record an unexpected +2.83% result for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls have pushed through the resistance and it looks like the triangle is done.

Bullish scenario

If the bulls can stay above .0062, they are golden.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can win .0062 and use that to clear the .0064-00665 resistance area, they could get access to previously reported targets soon

Check/in progress. The bulls broke .0062 immediately after the bell and momentum is clearly on their side now.

The bull win conditions are simple to understand: reinforce .0062 and move on to clear the .0064-00665 resistance area to unlock exciting new targets:

Victory would expose the .007-725 resistance zone [..]

Bearish scenario

The bears are in trouble and can’t take another deafeat.

As previously reported:

Bears need to defend .0062 and reclaim .006 in order to unlock previously reported objectives

Failed. All was going according to plan and they briefly had .006 in their pocket, but the bears dropped the ball on the very last day.

If the bears can’t retake .0062 fast, they should get ready to prepare a solid weekly 200 EMA defense in the .007-0072 range very soon.

However, provided an unlikely black swan event occurs and bears do get access to .006, that should put them back into the driver seat and unlock previously projected objectives:

[..] they should get a chance to pierce .00575 and expose .00525-55 [..]

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 26, 2022

Mon, 04 Jul 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 125.73 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and peaked at 130.28 on Monday before closing the week’s action at 116.15 (-7.43%~).

The action

Week 26 action was largely controlled by the bears. Although the bulls did enough to keep the action above the psychological 100 level, they were unable to break the 130 resistance.

The bulls lost initiative during the first 24 hours, immediately after being denied a higher high, just under the 2H 200 EMA at 130. The week’s high point was recorded at 130.28.

Bearish speculative efforts finally paid off on Thursday when the temporary bull support around 117 was pierced.

Luckily for the bulls, nothing significant came out of that move, as the bears ran out of steam early and could not push below 108.

The weekend was dominated by the bullish forces. After exploiting a RSI divergence on minor timeframes, they went on to recover ~7% of the lost territory.

The action finally closed at 116.15, with a -7.43% result favoring the bears.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are pushing for an hourly golden cross around 120.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are running out of options and they need to make something happen during this period.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can stay above 120, they should get another chance to strike 135 this week.

Failed/in progress. The bulls lost 120 in the early game, on Monday. Although 135 was out of reach during the last period, they seem determined to give it another shot soon.

A confident close above 135 is the main priority now for the bulls. Everything else is pretty much dependant on that objective.

If they can accomplish that, previously reported targets would become viable once more: the 150-160 resistance zone in the short term and 180/200 key levels in the longer term.

Bearish scenario

The bears have now pushed the action below all key (50/200) moving average resistances on all charts from 1H to 1M.

As previously reported:

The bears do not want to lose control of 135. Clearing the 110-120 bull defense area should be enough to produce a favorable monthly close and also expose the psychological 100 level to attacks.

Check/in progress. The bears blocked all access routes to 135 and managed to pierce the monthly 50 exponential after closing the huge ~40%+ monthly candle well below the <150 minimum requirement.

If they can stay in control of 135 and keep bulls away from 150, the bears should get another shot to breach 95 and unlock previously reported targets:

Breaking 80 would probably expose the 40-50 support area in the near future.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bearish stalling tactic was effective in preventing a bull breakout attempt.

The week started at .005968 with another failed bull attempt to flip .006 which triggered a bear counterattack.

The resulting bears strikes targeting the .0057 support were intercepted by the bulls twice, on Tuesday and Thursday. The bulls managed to keep full control over the 4H 200 EMA.

On Saturday, a reinforced bull force flipped the .006 level to support and went on to register the week’s high point at .006200.

Ation closed at .006029, with an unremarkable +1.2% result for the bulls.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are looking to take advantage of the 4H golden cross to break the .0062 resistance.

As previously reported:

To break out of the April structure, the bulls need to close above .0064 and expose .00665.

Failed/in progress. The bulls did flip .006, but were denied access to .0064 after they lost the battle for .0062.

The good news is the RSI is pretty much in bull territory on most charts.

If the bulls can win .0062 and use that to clear the .0064-00665 resistance area, they could get access to previously reported targets soon:

Victory would expose the .007-725 resistance zone [..]

Bearish scenario

The bears are slowly but surely running out of time and moves.

As previously reported:

If the bears can defend the .006-64 zone, they should get a chance to pierce .00575 and expose .00525-55 soon.

Failed/in progress. The .006 level is still disputed and while the bears did briefly pierce .00575, they were denied prolonged access below .00566 on two separate occasions and were unable to target .0055.

Bears need to defend .0062 and reclaim .006 in order to unlock previously reported objectives:

If they can break .0053 and close under .005, we can expect fights in the .0045-47 area soon.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 25, 2022

Mon, 27 Jun 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 112.08 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and peaked at 133.8 on Sunday before closing the week’s action at 125.48 (+11.69%~).

The action

Week 25 action was controlled by the bulls. The bears were forced into an early defensive stance but managed to not surrender any critical territory during the period.

Bulls flipped the minor resistance at 110 on Monday and advanced towards 120 the following day. The attack was easily blocked and rejected by bear defenders at the 4H 50 exponential. Bulls had to retreat to the fresh 110 support and wait for reinforcements.

In the second half the bulls came back for round two and managed to break 120 on Thursday. That assault also produced the first hourly golden cross in almost a month.

During the weekend, bear forces did just enough to stop the bullish campaign at the .382 fibs, just below the 135 resistance level. The weekly high point was recorded at 133.8 on Sunday.

The action finally closed at 125.48. That was a much needed +11.69% victory for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are attempting to construct a higher low around 120.

Bullish scenario

The bulls have a little over 72 hours to push the action above 155 and save the monthly close.

As previously reported:

There is little doubt when it comes to what the bulls need to do next: flip back 135 and push for a close above 160 in order to deny the monthly bearish engulfing candle from completing in less than 10 days.

Failed/in progress. The bulls did well to recover a portion of the lost ground, however the key 135 resistance was simply unreachable. Unfortunately, they ran out of steam just under that level, at 133.8.

If the bulls can stay above 120, they should get another chance to strike 135 this week.

Flip 135 quickly in order to expose the 150-160 resistance zone.

A confident close above 160 should unlock previously reported targets:

That kind of bull victory would get them back in the game and should open up attack options for 180 and 200 in the near future.

Bearish scenario

Defeated, but not out. Bears are still 100% in the game.

As previously reported:

The bears only need to defend one of the key fib retracement levels: .382 around 135 and .618 below 160 would probably be their best options.

Check. Despite the final result, the bears were successful in blocking bull access to 135 at the .382 fib retracement level.

The bears do not want to lose control of 135. Clearing the 110-120 bull defense area should be enough to produce a favorable monthly close and also expose the psychological 100 level to attacks.

Close under 95 to start a new bear era. Previous targets would become viable:

Breaking 80 would probably expose the 40-50 support area in the near future.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are preparing another breakout attempt.

The week started at .005490 with a bull attack that quickly flipped .0055 to support.

The bears used that level to siege .00565 during the next 3 days. On Thursday, bears were finally ready to give up on the 2H 200 EMA resistance and retreat towards the .006 resistance.

Bullish forces took advantage of that to establish a new support perimeter above .0058, with obvious plans to probe .006 during the weekend.

The week’s high point was recorded on the last day at .006195. Bears barely managed to defend the area, but not before conceding to a 4H golden cross.

Ation closed at .005957, with a hopeful +8.51% result for the bulls.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are winning small battles, but macro time frames are still controlled by their opponents.

As previously reported:

Provided they stay above .0053 and flip .0058, they should get another opportunity soon [at retaking control of .006].

Check/in progress. Bulls managed to flip .0058 and did get another shot at .006. Despite briefly touching .006195, they were only able to close just below that level at .005957.

To break out of the April structure, the bulls need to close above .0064 and expose .00665.

Victory would expose the .007-725 resistance zone, unlocking bigger objectives: control over the weekly and monthly charts.

Bearish scenario

The bears are struggling to keep the monthly RSI below 50.

As previously reported:

If they can break .0053 and close under .005, we can expect fights in the .0045-47 area soon.

Failed. The bears were unable to break .0053 after being blocked around .0054 by bulls on Monday. The rest of their objectives were delayed after they were forced to defend for the rest of the period.

If the bears can defend the .006-64 zone, they should get a chance to pierce .00575 and expose .00525-55 soon.

Close under .005 to break down and freak out the bulls.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 24, 2022

Mon, 20 Jun 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 156.93 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), bottomed at 95.95 on Saturday and closed the week’s action at 112.34 (-28.58%~).

The action

Week 24 action was completely dominated by the bears. Bulls were simply no match to the devastating bearish continuation assault that gave full control over the weekly 200 EMA to their opponents for the first time in 2+ years.

Bears furiously attacked 135 on Monday and the bull defenders barely managed to hang on to the support for the first 24 hours, before being forced to retreat towards the psychological 100 level mid-week.

A small bull counterstrike was quickly blocked at 120 on Thursday.

The weekend was particularly scary for the bulls after the the bears managed to briefly pierce 100 and recorded the period’s low point at 95.95 on Saturday.

On the very last day, the bulls finally took advantage of RSI divergences on most hourly charts to mount a last minute counter move which closed the action at 112.34 for a -28.58% crushing result.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are orchestrating a golden cross on the hourly, betting on a fib retracement move that could initially target .382 around 135.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are in a very tricky situation and only pushing the action back above the monthly 50 exponential could potentially save them.

As previously reported:

If bulls can retake control of the weekly 200 EMA and push the action above the monthly 50 exponential, they should get another chance to fight for the 180 resistance.

Failed. The bulls lost control of both the weekly and monthly moving average supports and a fight for 180 is currently off the table.

There is little doubt when it comes to what the bulls need to do next: flip back 135 and push for a close above 160 in order to deny the monthly bearish engulfing candle from completing in less than 10 days.

That kind of bull victory would get them back in the game and should open up attack options for 180 and 200 in the near future.

Bearish scenario

The bears are winning but should expect some form of retaliation soon.

As previously reported:

If bears can close below 150, that would be significant. However, if they can push and keep the action under 135 for enough time, the bears should be able to target the psychological 100 level next.

Check. The bear force was strong enough to destroy 150, keep the action under 135 long enough to target and briefly pierce 100.

Breaking 80 would probably expose the 40-50 support area in the near future.

Failed/in progress. Although the bulls did stop the bleeding just over 95 to prevent 80 attacks last week, the level is still exposed.

The bears only need to defend one of the key fib retracement levels: .382 around 135 and .618 below 160 would probably be their best options.

If successful, the bears might be able to bomb 100 and potentially start a new impulse wave down. Flipping the critical support level should expose 80 and force bulls into a deeper retreat towards 50.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are not yet ready to give up on the weekly 50 EMA around .0054.

The week started at .005897 with a nice bull counterattack supported by .0057 that was targeting .006 and was meant to stop a 4H deathcross.

After only 24 hours, bears emerged as the clear winners of that encounter. What followed was a very strong ~16% bear rally that lasted until the weekend and produced the weekly low point at .005017 on Thursday.

On Friday the bears finally ran out of steam after briefly piercing the daily 200 and 50 weekly EMAs. Luckily for the bulls, .005 proved to be a strong enough support.

The bull counterattack targeting the 4H 50 exponential and the .05 fibs was stopped by the bell and action closed at .005490, with a solid -6.75% result for the bears.

Bullish scenario

The bulls need to grab the initiative and switch to gung ho mode.

As previously reported:

The bulls are still in control of the daily 50 EMA around .00588, but barely. If the bulls can stay above that level and keep the daily golden cross intact, they should have a decent shot at retaking control of .006 soon.

Failed. The bulls took a shot at .006 on Monday. Although that failed, the daily golden cross is still intact.

Provided they stay above .0053 and flip .0058, they should get another opportunity soon.

Previous targets still valid:

If they can flip .0064, another .00665 assault would be imminent.

Bearish scenario

The bear stats are looking good, but they need a significant win soon or a strong defence.

As previously reported:

We can expect a fight in the daily 50 EMA vicintity, around .00585. (2 weeks)

The .006 bear victory produced deathcrosses on most hourly charts and the 4H chart is next. (1 week)

Check and check. The bears fought well and were rewarded with full control over the daily 50 EMA, the .006 resistance level and also the 4H deathcross.

If they can break .0053 and close under .005, we can expect fights in the .0045-47 area soon.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 23, 2022

Mon, 13 Jun 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 186.33 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), peaked at 193.46 on Monday and closed the week’s action at 157.29 (-15.61%~).

The action

Week 23 action tempo was dictated by the bears. Bulls were repeatedly denied access to 200 during the first half, and had to give up on their 4H 200 EMA battle plans.

Anemic bull forces initiated two separate attacks that were meant to hit and flip 200 on Monday and Tuesday. Both efforts failed, after being intercepted by the bears around 190.

By Thursday it was clear that the bulls didn’t have the numbers necessary for yet another offensive move, after they were unable to prevent a deathcross on the 3H, which ended up triggering a vicious bear counterattack.

The weekend was particularly bloody: on Friday the bulls lost 180 and started to retreat towards 150.

The bell temporarily saved the bulls from further misery by closing the action at 157.29. The -15.61% result marked a significant bear victory.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, bull defenders are desperately fighting to stay in the game just above the 135 support.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are visibly struggling to mount any kind of offensive move. The pressure is on.

As previously reported:

The bulls need to push for a higher high soon if they want to break through the ascending triangle that started forming last month.

Failed. The bulls failed to produce a higher high after being rejected around 190 and the structure collapsed to the downside.

The bulls have lost control of almost all territories and this period is crucial for both the weekly and the monthly charts.

They simply cannot afford a close below 157.

If bulls can retake control of the weekly 200 EMA and push the action above the monthly 50 exponential, they should get another chance to fight for the 180 resistance.

Flip that to expose 200 once more.

Bearish scenario

The bears are currently preparing for another wave down.

As previously reported:

If they can win 180, preferably close below 165, then 150 would be totally exposed. Flip that level to fight in the 120-135 zone in the near future.

Check/in progress. The bears have finally counterattacked and the results are pretty solid: they easily broke 180 during the weekend, closed below 165 and pushed forward to briefly pierce the key 135 bull support.

A lot of factors are favoring the bears at this point: they got the momentum, RSI on most charts has crossed below 50, relevant macro moving average suppports have been breached, most goldencrosses were reversed and the bull morale is critically low.

If bears can close below 150, that would be significant.

However, if they can push and keep the action under 135 for enough time, the bears should be able to target the psychological 100 level next.

Breaking 80 would probably expose the 40-50 support area in the near future.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are having trouble staying above the daily 50 exponential around .0059.

The week started at .006209 and action was confined to a rather tight ~5% range between .0059 and .0062 until the weekend.

The .006 support at the 4H EMA was the main target for bear assaults and the level held on Monday and Wednesday.

Bulls had to defend all week after losing the battle for .0062 at the beginning of the week, on Tuesday.

On Saturday the bears pierced the support and started pushing towards .0056, riding death crosses on most hourly charts.

Bulls managed to stop the bleeding on Sunday after bears registered the week’s low point at .005552.

The action finally closed at .005887, with a decent -5.13% result for the bears.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are still in the game, despite the negative result.

As previously reported:

Bulls are now back in the difficult spot of defending .006 and keeping the action above the 200 EMA on the 4H. (1 week)

Failed. The bulls came very close to defending .006 and the 4H 200 exponential battle is still ongoing.

The bulls need to prevent bearish maneuvers below the daily 50 EMA [..] (2 weeks)

Check/in progress. The bulls are still in control of the daily 50 EMA around .00588, but barely.

If the bulls can stay above that level and keep the daily golden cross intact, they should have a decent shot at retaking control of .006 soon.

Previous targets still valid:

If they can flip .0064, another .00665 assault would be imminent.

Bearish scenario

The bears are winning, but their slow and steady pace tactic might backfire.

As previously reported:

We can expect a fight in the daily 50 EMA vicintity, around .00585. (1 week)

Failed/in progress. Bears successfully engaged the enemy in that area but they have not yet won that fight.

[..] the bears might be able to recapture .006 and undo some golden crosses on hourly charts. (2 weeks)

Check/in progress. The .006 bear victory produced deathcrosses on most hourly charts and the 4H chart is next.

Previous targets are still valid:

A close under .00575 is necessary to enable .0053 and .0047 follow-up attacks.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 22, 2022

Mon, 06 Jun 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 181.05 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), peaked at 201.6 on Tuesday and closed the week’s action at 186.38 (+3.55%~).

The action

Week 22 action was focused on the psychological 200 resistance level. Bulls repeatedly put the bear defense to the test during the first half, but they ran out of steam just before the weekend and had to give up control of the daily 50 EMA.

Bulls initiated a strong offensive move on Monday that would last 48 hours and which was meant to crush 200. The 10%+ resulting rally also produced a golden cross on the 3H, but that wasn’t enough to pierce the solid bear resistance.

Action cooled off until Thursday, when bull reinforcements came back for round two. However, the attack was short-lived and the results disappointing.

Although bears had no trouble defending, curiously enough, they also seemed rather uninterested in starting a strong counterattack.

Action finally closed at 186.38 and the bulls had to settle with a measly +3.55% result.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, bears seem to be moving their defensive installations forward, just above 190.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are currently reinforcing the 170-180 support zone, expecting some kind of attack soon.

As previously reported:

The bulls are close to completing some relevant golden crosses on the 3H and 4H charts, but they need to flip 200 very soon.

Failed/in progress. Although the bulls did complete a 3H golden cross and touched 200 twice, they have failed to take control of the important level.

The bulls need to push for a higher high soon if they want to break through the ascending triangle that started forming last month.

Provided 170-180 support holds and bulls can flip 200, they might be able to clear the resistance area ahead, and finally move on to greater targets, as previously reported:

If they can clear the 210-230 resistance zone, bulls should be able to reverse the daily death cross, trap bears and resume the uptrend with a new push towards 250. Close above 250 to target 290/300 next.

Bearish scenario

The bears are still holding strong and an 180 attack is looking imminent at this point.

As previously reported:

If the bears can keep the action below 230, ideally under the daily 200 EMA around 205, they should be able to counterattack and target 180 soon.

Check/in progress. The bears have done well to retain control of most key resistance zones, but the counterattack is still delayed.

It is unlikely that bears would want to risk another bull test of the already scarred 200.

If they can win 180, preferably close below 165, then 150 would be totally exposed. Flip that level to fight in the 120-135 zone in the near future.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are still unable to produce a higher high above .00665.

The week started at .00615 with a blitz bull attack just above the 4H 50 exponential, targetting .0064. That got rejected on Tuesday.

With a decent temporary support established at .006, revitalized bulls managed to restart the offensive campaign and went on to pierce .0064 and touch the week’s high point at .006596 on Thursday.

The weekend was dominated by the bears. They once more were successful in denying most of the bullish gains, and closed the action at .006205, with an irrelevant +1.09% result for the bulls.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are wasting valuable opportunities and simply cannot afford a big loss right now.

As previously reported:

The bulls need to prevent bearish maneuvers below the daily 50 EMA and solidify their position above .006.

Check/in progress. The bulls didn’t yet lose .006 and the bears were denied access to the daily 50 exponential, for now.

If they can flip .0064, another .00665 assault would be imminent.

Failed. Although the bulls did briefly pierce .0064 and made an effort to reach .00665, they ultimately failed to secure a clear win after being blocked at .006596 mid-week.

Bulls are now back in the difficult spot of defending .006 and keeping the action above the 200 EMA on the 4H.

If they can maintain both their current support position and the golden cross integrity on hourly charts, they should get another shot at .0064 and .00665 soon.

Previous targets are still relevant:

If the bulls can close above .007, they should be in a good position to attempt a .0072-73 zonal attack. (2 weeks)

Bearish scenario

The bears are temporarily out of the danger zone, but they need a victory soon.

As previously reported:

If they can stop bulls from piercing the monthly 50 exponential around .0072, ideally keeping the action below .0066, the bears might be able to recapture .006 and undo some golden crosses on hourly charts.

Check/in progress. The bears confidently stopped the bulls from venturing above .0066 and are advancing on .006.

We can expect a fight in the daily 50 EMA vicintity, around .00585.

Previous targets are still valid:

A close under .00575 is necessary to enable .0053 and .0047 follow-up attacks.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 21, 2022

Mon, 30 May 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 184.80 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), peaked at 197.71 on Wednesday and closed the week’s action at 180.00 (-2.6%~).

The action

Week 21 action was dominated by bull attempts to take control of the daily 50 exponential moving average just under 200. The bears managed to prevent golden crosses on most relevant charts, but it was close.

Bulls were repeatedly denied access above the 4H 200 EMA on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and had to settle with the 197.71 high that was registered mid-week.

Although the 180 support proved to be decently reliable for the bulls, bearish forced finally took control of the initiative and broke that level in the second half.

The bears produced a ~15% rally that pushed the bulls back all the way to 167.78 on Sunday, which was going to be the week’s low point.

Action finally closed at 180.00 with an inconclusive -2.6% result for the bears.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, bears are struggling to defend the 200 resistance.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are keen on turning the monthly candle into a green hammer, with around 24 hours left on the clock.

As previously reported:

If they can take control of 200, they should be able use that to clear the 210-230 resistance zone.

Failed. The key level was unreachable, despite repeated bull offensive efforts in the first half.

The bulls are close to completing some relevant golden crosses on the 3H and 4H charts, but they need to flip 200 very soon.

If they can clear the 210-230 resistance zone, bulls should be able to reverse the daily death cross, trap bears and resume the uptrend with a new push towards 250.

Close above 250 to target 290/300 next.

Bearish scenario

The bears are holding on, but their position is starting to look shaky.

As previously reported:

If the bears can deny bull access above 210-230, preferably keeping them under 200 and the weekly 50 EMA, they should be okay.

Check. The bears did well to block all bull attempts to push the action above 200, but that’s about all they did.

The best defense is a good offense and the bears need to take control of the initiative fast or prepare for a damaging bull rally if they lose 200.

If the bears can keep the action below 230, ideally under the daily 200 EMA around 205, they should be able to counterattack and target 180 soon.

A close below 165 could force the bulls back into a defensive stance and expose 135 for the nth time.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are slowly closing in on the monthly 50 EMA.

The week started at .006095 with a bull offensive campaign targetting .0064.

The bears finally gave up control of the resistance on Wednesday and were foced to retreat towards .00665.

On Thursday the bullish 9% rally ran out of steam after registering the week’s top at .00665.

The weekend was dominated by the bearish counterattack that erased almost 100% of the bull gains, closing the action at .006138, with a marginal +0.80% victory for the bulls.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are happy to fight above .006 for now, but the potential for a big victory is increasing.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can close above .006, they should be able to take another stab at .0065. (2 weeks)

Check/in progress. The bulls did close above .006, took a stab at .0065, but were quickly rejected.

If the bulls can close above .007, they should be in a good position to attempt a .0072-73 zonal attack. (last week)

Failed. .007 was totally out of reach, mainly thanks to a solid bear defence of .0065.

The bulls need to prevent bearish maneuvers below the daily 50 EMA and solidify their position above .006.

If they can flip .0064, another .00665 assault would be imminent. Close above that level to expose .007-72 monthly resistance area to attacks.

Previous targets are still valid:

Breaking both the weekly 200 EMA and the monthly 50 EMA would be a massive victory for the bulls, that could expose .009 and .01 in the near future.

Bearish scenario

The bears are helplessly staring at an almost finalized bullish monthly green hammer.

As previously reported:

The bears need to push the action below .0065 (ideally under .006) in order to contain the bulls inside the 4 year old descending parallel channel.

Check/in progress. The bears barely managed to stop the bulls from taking .0065 and closed the action just above .006.

The bears need to make their move soon, while they are still in control of the two important charts: weekly and monthly.

Losing either of those territories would pretty much guarantee considerable macro pain.

If they can stop bulls from piercing the monthly 50 exponential around .0072, ideally keeping the action below .0066, the bears might be able to recapture .006 and undo some golden crosses on hourly charts.

A close under .00575 is necessary to enable .0053 and .0047 follow-up attacks.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 20, 2022

Mon, 23 May 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 170.57 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), bottomed at 151.07 on Thursday and closed the week’s action at 184.80 (+8.09%~).

The action

Week 20 action was dominated by constant bullish pressure in the 170-180 resistance zone. The bears were finally forced to concede and initiate a tactial retreat towards 200 during the weekend.

The bulls engaged the enemy on Monday, looking to take control of the hourly 200 exponential moving average and revert the death cross.

However, bear forces managed to resist and stay in control of 175 for the first half.

Wednesday’s counterattack pushed back the bulls to the 150 support, but the bears were unable to finalize and had to revert back to a defensive stance for the rest of the week.

On Friday the bears gave up on trying to prevent the hourly golden cross and rushed to reinforce the 3H and 4H 200 EMAs in the 185-200 area.

Action closed at 184.80 with a satisfying +8.09% bull win.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are preparing to attack the psychological 200 level.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are closing in on the daily 50 exponential around 196.

As previously reported:

The bulls absolutely need not lose control of the monthly support above the 50 exponential, around 150.

Check. The bear attack on 150 was easily rejected on Thursday.

Flipping 180 should expose 200 and give the bulls an opportunity to clear the 210-230 resistance area, break the downtrend and eventually push towards 290 once more.

Check/in progress. They have pushed the action above 180 and 200 is now exposed to attacks.

Everything is going according to plan for the bulls. If they can take control of 200, they should be able use that to clear the 210-230 resistance zone.

A close above 230 would open up a clear .786 fibs strike path around 250 and put 290/300 back on the table.

Bearish scenario

The bears are hoping to produce a solid monthly close in ~8 days.

As previously reported:

The bears could deploy troops to intercept and counter any bull offensive plans in two zones: 185-200 or 200-225 near the .618 fibs. If they can deny bull access above those areas, they should be able to pierce the monthly 50 EMA around 150 and try their luck at breaking 135.

Failed/in progress. Although the bears did deploy troops to defend the 185-200 area, it doesn’t look that good at this point: the bulls have the initiative, RSI is moving into their territory and a 200 attack seems imminent.

Close below 135 to expose 100 and crush opposition morale.

Failed. The bears were blocked access to 135 after failing to break 150 mid-week.

If the bears can deny bull access above 210-230, preferably keeping them under 200 and the weekly 50 EMA, they should be okay.

A close below 170 would put pressure on the bulls and that might open up the road to 150 and 135 once more.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the relentless bulls are crushing the opposition left and right.

The week started at .005464 with the bears struggling to defend .00575 against a very determined bull force.

After 48 hours of non-stop attacks, the bears finally managed to push the bulls back after temporarily securing control over the 4H 200 EMA.

On Thursday the bulls found support above .0053 and started round two. The weekend was particularly bloody as the bears had to retreat more than 14% to defend the relevant .006 level.

The action closed at .006090, with a solid +11.35% victory for the bulls.

Bullish scenario

The bulls seem determined to establish a solid support above .006.

As previously reported:

Now the bulls have to stay above .0055 if they want to mount a .0057-006 offensive soon.

Check. The bears briefly touched .005257 with the weekly low point, but bulls confidently won that battle before flipping .0057.

If the bulls can close above .006, they should be able to take another stab at .0065.

Check. The bulls managed to close above .006 and are getting ready to target .0065 next.

If the bulls can close above .007, they should be in a good position to attempt a .0072-73 zonal attack.

Breaking both the weekly 200 EMA and the monthly 50 EMA would be a massive victory for the bulls, that could expose .009 and .01 in the near future.

Bearish scenario

The bears are under immense pressure and the next few weeks are crucial.

As previously reported:

If the bears can maintain control of .0055-58, a .0051 attack would be imminent.

Failed. Bears lost .0058 and were denied access to .0051.

The bears need to push the action below .0065 (ideally under .006) in order to contain the bulls inside the 4 year old descending parallel channel.

A close under .0052 would largely negate bullish momentum and maintain bearish control over the weekly and monthly charts.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 19, 2022

Mon, 16 May 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 215.88 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), bottomed at 119.51 on Thursday and closed the week’s action at 170.97 (-20.65%~).

The action

Week 19 action was dominated by strong bearish maneuvers which exploited clear vulnerabilities in the bull defenses. Spoils include the daily golden cross reversal and full control over the psychological 200 level.

The bulls lost the initiative on Monday, after failing to create a higher high above the 4H 50 EMA around 218. The bear counterattack took the bulls by surprise, quickly flipped 200 and pushed the bears below 180 by midnight.

Bear forces moved their front line installations closer to 180 the next day, just in time to block a weak bull attempt at getting back in the game and pushing their opponents back to 160.

However, the support was temporary, as proven by the vicious mid-week bear assault that had the bulls scramble to defend 135 by Thursday.

For a moment there, the bears touched 119, a level uncontested since November 23rd, 2020. Luckily for the defenders, last-minute reinforcements managed to use clear RSI divergences on hourly charts to stop the bleeding.

The bull push back finally paid off on Sunday after they regained control of 160 to miraculously end the week still in control of the monthly 50 and weekly 200 moving averages.

Action closed at 170.97 and the bears had to settle with a -20.65% win.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are struggling to establish support above the 4H 50 exponential around 165.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are now trapped between the 50 and 200 weekly EMAs in the 150-210 range.

As previously reported:

[..] The bulls should prepare to defend 180, if they want to avoid a complete wave failure and a retreat towards the 135-150 zone.

Failed. Exactly as reported, their worst nightmare has materialized after losing key support levels, specifically 180.

The bulls absolutely need not lose control of the monthly support above the 50 exponential, around 150.

Flipping 180 should expose 200 and give the bulls an opportunity to clear the 210-230 resistance area, break the downtrend and eventually push towards 290 once more.

Bearish scenario

The bears are preparing for the next red wave. A massive victory awaits, provided they don’t miscalculate.

As previously reported:

If the bears can flip 180, they should be able to target the weekly 200 EMA around 150 next. [..] Although hard to accomplish, and if 150 is broken, an unlikely close below 130 is possible.

Check/in progress. The bears flipped 180, 150 and then briefly pierced 130 with the weekly 119.51 low. However, they still have yet to impress with a great close.

The bears could deploy troops to intercept and counter any bull offensive plans in two zones: 185-200 or 200-225 near the .618 fibs.

If they can deny bull access above those areas, they should be able to pierce the monthly 50 EMA around 150 and try their luck at breaking 135.

Close below 135 to expose 100 and crush opposition morale.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls failed to create a higher high and were forced into a defensive stance.

The week started at .006350 with the bears in full control of the action after they denied bull access to .0065.

Bulls were forced to give up ~30% of their territory by mid-week. On Thursday the bears finally lost momentum after touching .004441. That was the bottom.

The weekend was dominated by the bulls. Their counterattack was sucessful enough to recover more than half of the lost ground, but the glory was reserved for the bears.

The action closed at .005469, with a considerable -14.00% win for the bears.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are still in a decent position. If only they could stabilize a above the daily 50 EMA around .0055.

As previously reported:

[..] the bulls still need to break .0065.

Failed. Now the bulls have to stay above .0055 if they want to mount a .0057-006 offensive soon.

If the bulls can close above .006, they should be able to take another stab at .0065.

That’s pretty much the final resistance before .007.

Bearish scenario

The bears are in a better position now, but only slightly.

As previously reported:

If they could stop the bulls at either the weekly 200 or the monthly 50 EMA [..] they might be able to maintain the death cross status quo and restart offensive plans.

Check. The bears promptly reacted to stop any bullish structure from forming on major charts and the relevant death crosses are still intact.

A close under .00495 should send a clear message and force the bulls into a retreat, to defend .0045.

Failed/in progress. The bears did keep the action below .00495 for a few days and forced the projected bull retreat towards .0045 with the .004441 low, but in the end they simply could not reach their target close.

If the bears can maintain control of .0055-58, a .0051 attack would be imminent.

Close below .0047, ideally .0045, to target and potentially break the already weakened crucial bull .0039 support.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 18, 2022

Mon, 09 May 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 211.88 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), peaked at 229 on Thursday and closed the week’s action at 215.48 (+1.48%~).

The action

Week 18 action painted a descending triangle on hourly charts, favoring the bears. Although the bulls ended up closing the week with a slightly positive result for them, it was obvious to most observers that the bears were in total control of the momentum at all times.

The bears started the week with a blitz attack targeting 200. However, that was immediately rejected, and was followed by an impressive bull counterratack which registered the week’s high point at 229 on Thursday, after a 15%+ move.

After it was clear that the 4H 200 EMA resistance zone between 220-230 would hold, the bears launched three more assaults aimed at the psychological 200 support on Thursday, Friday and Sunday.

The bull defenders barely held on to 200, but their counter moves were being blocked faster with each skirmish. The 50 exponential on the daily proved to be an impassable obstacle for the rest of the week.

Action closed at 215.48, temporarily stopping engagements to register the tiny +1.48% bull result.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are closing in on the 180 support, as bulls are rushing to defend the key level.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are now trapped, after being punished for their overextension, by a determined bear force.

As previously reported:

A close above 220 would open up a way to clear 240 and expose 290 once more.

Failed. The bulls were stopped two times at the 220 resistance and only managed to come very close to that level once, with the week’s high point, at 229, on Thursday.

The bulls should expect 180 strikes soon and a solid defense should already be in the works. That level should be impenetrable. If the bulls can construct a higher low, ideally above the 180-200 zone, then we can expect a new impulse wave up in the following weeks.

In progress. The bulls should prepare to defend 180, if they want to avoid a complete wave failure and a retreat towards the 135-150 zone.

If the bulls can find support above 180, they should be able to restart offensive plans directed at breaking 220.

A confident close above 220, ideally above 230, would clear all moving averages and prevent the daily golden cross reversal, which is currently in progress.

Provided all goes according to plan, 290/300 should be back on the table very soon.

Bearish scenario

The bears are doing very well, but the battle ahead could prove to be very difficult for them to win.

As previously reported:

If the bears can hold on to the initiative and keep the action sandwiched between the 50 and 200 EMAs on the weekly, below 215, they should be able to reverse the daily golden cross soon.

Check. The bears now have the initiative, the action is taking place between the two moving averages, and a death cross is quickly forming on the daily.

A close under 180 would expose the weekly 200 exponential support around 150. Victory there would force a bitter bull retreat towards 135.

In progress. If the bears can flip 180, they should be able to target the weekly 200 EMA around 150 next.

Although hard to accomplish, and if 150 is broken, an unlikely close below 130 is possible.

That would be a huge victory for the bears, which might force the bulls into the very precarious position to defend 100.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls have successfully established a reliable support above the weekly 50 exponential.

The week started at .005509 with a bear attack that was blocked at the .786 fibs, which printed the week’s low point at .0051.

The bears failed to retake control of the action and the bulls were in full control for the rest of the week.

With momentum on their side, bullish forces managed to pierce moving averages on most hourly charts, leaving behind golden crosses everywhere, with their glorious ~24% rally.

On Friday, the bulls flipped .00575 and touched .0061. Bears were simply unable to compete and had to give up that level too on the last day of the week, in order to prepare a .0064 defence.

The action closed at .006359, with a well deserved +15.05% win for the bulls.

Bullish scenario

The bulls can celebrate, but there’s a lot of hard work to be done still.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can deny bear access below .005 and ideally keep control of .00525, they should be able to use the .786 fibs to support new offensive plans targeting the .0057-59 zone. A break above .0065 would expose .007 to another bull strike.

Check/in progress. Bulls blocked bear access below .005 with the .0051 rejection on Monday, the .786 fibs held, and the .0057-59 has been cleared. However, the bulls still need to break .0065.

If the bulls can do that and create a higher high by closing above .007, we could see a special operation in the .00725-0074 zone very soon.

Bearish scenario

The bears have missed an important chance to trap the bulls and are now preparing for the worst.

As previously reported:

If the bears can break the daily 200 EMA support with a close below .0049, we should see .0046 attacks next.

Failed. The bears were stopped just above the daily 200 EMA and didn’t get the chance to close below .0049.

The bears are still barely in control of two important charts: the weekly and the monthly.

If they could stop the bulls at either the weekly 200 or the monthly 50 EMA, and push the action under .00735, ideally under .007, they might be able to maintain the death cross status quo and restart offensive plans.

A close under .00495 should send a clear message and force the bulls into a retreat, to defend .0045.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 17, 2022

Mon, 02 May 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 252.22 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), peaked at 262.5 on Tuesday and closed the week’s action at 212.33 (-16.14%~).

The action

Week 17 action was almost completely dominated by the bears. By Tuesday it was quite clear that the bulls would probably be unable to register their 9th consecutive weekly win against a very determined bear force.

The bulls started the week with a promising defense of 240 around the 3h 200 EMA. This small win was used to mount a quick attack aimed at creating a higher high above 290.

However, that attempt failed miserably on Tuesday, when the bears showed up to defend the 50 exponential below 260, essentially overwhelming the bulls.

The resulting counterattack was unexpectedly strong and pierced all moving average support lines on most hourly charts, including the 4H, leaving behind a menacing 12%+ bearish engulfing candle on the daily.

Bullish forces struggled to stay in the game until the weekend, but unfortunately for them, the bears had already moved their resistance lines forward to the 200 EMA on the 4H, around 235.

With no real support in sight, mounting pressure from death crosses forming everywhere and RSI returning to bear territory, the bulls decided to give up and retreat from the death trap towards the 200-210 area, hoping to rendezvous with reinforcements at the key .618 Fibonacci retracement level.

Action closed at 212.3, abruptly ending the week with a resounding -16.14% bear victory. The bulls are slowly realizing that it’s not over and their troubles are just beginning.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are pushing their luck below the weekly 50 EMA, planning to flip 200.

Bullish scenario

The bulls have temporarily lost momentum after their winning streak was interrupted. They should switch to a correction mode stance.

As previously reported:

The bulls must stay above 220. If they can, optimally, find a reliable support above 250, they should be able to easily flip 265 and potentially close above 288.

Failed. Although they did manage to touch 260 on Tuesday and stay above 220 for most of the week, the bulls were forced to abandon that support on Sunday after consistent bearish pressure.

The bulls should expect 180 strikes soon and a solid defense should already be in the works. That level should be impenetrable.

If the bulls can construct a higher low, ideally above the 180-200 zone, then we can expect a new impulse wave up in the following weeks.

A close above 220 would open up a way to clear 240 and expose 290 once more.

Bearish scenario

The bears are back. But they should be careful not to overplay their hand, as the bulls might still hold some aces.

As previously reported:

This week is crucial, as the bears have less than 5 days to prevent the bulls from completing the third candle in their three white soldier formation, which is super bullish and indicates a bullish reversal on the monthly chart.

Check. Dramatically, last minute bearish speculative efforts resulted in the complete denial of the third white soldier bullish candle on the monthly.

No compromise: the bears have to target 209 and at the very least close below 220. That should bring back RSI into a more neutral territory on most charts and could potentially give the bears another shot at 180 soon.

Check/in progress. Bears targeted 209 and successfully closed below 220, at 212.33. Now they are preparing for the tough battle ahead, most probably around 180.

If the bears can hold on to the initiative and keep the action sandwiched between the 50 and 200 EMAs on the weekly, below 215, they should be able to reverse the daily golden cross soon.

A close under 180 would expose the weekly 200 exponential support around 150. Victory there would force a bitter bull retreat towards 135.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls had to temporarily scrap offensive plans after they were blocked by bear defenders just under the monthly 50 EMA resistance.

The week started at .006402 with a bear attack that failed to pierce .0061. The bulls retaliated with a move on .0065 on Tuesday, but that was quickly blocked just below the 2H 50 EMA.

The bears flipped .006 the very next day, with a solid move that would eventually push the action below several hourly chart moving averages by the end of the week.

Bull patriots used the 4H 200 exponential support around .0056 to mount several attacks on the recently lost psychological level, but none were strong enough to regain control of .006.

The action closed at .005527, with a comforting -13.65% win for the bears, leaving behind 6 daily red candles.

Bullish scenario

The bulls blew another shot at breaking the long-term descending parallel channel.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can stay above .0057, and ideally above .00615, they should get another chance to print a higher high very soon.

Failed. Although the bulls did touch .006538 this week, they simply could not stay above .00615 or find a reliable support at .0057.

If the bulls can deny bear access below .005 and ideally keep control of .00525, they should be able to use the .786 fibs to support new offensive plans targeting the .0057-59 zone.

A break above .0065 would expose .007 to another bull strike.

Bearish scenario

The bears are getting close to trapping the bulls and reversing the golden cross on the daily.

As previously reported:

If the bears can keep the monthly RSI below 50, flip .006 and close below the 4H 200 EMA around .0055, they should be able to attack .0053 next.

Check. The bears have done everything precisely as reported: RSI now sits at 45, .006 was flipped and action closed just below the 4H 200 EMA at .005527. Impressive.

A close below .005 would undo most of the damage, reverse the daily golden cross, trap the bulls and expose .0046.

Ongoing. This is probably the next item on the bear agenda.

If the bears can break the daily 200 EMA support with a close below .0049, we should see .0046 attacks next.

Victory in that region might trigger a bull panic retreat to defend .0038.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 16, 2022

Mon, 25 Apr 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 240.53 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), peaked at 287.1 on Thursday and closed the week’s action at 253.22 (+5.21%~).

The action

Week 16 action was a roller coaster. The bulls were looking unstoppable during the first half, until the bears started to fight back in a heroic last minute attempt to recover lost ground.

The bulls started the week with a confident defense of 235, which resulted in a counterattack that would immediately flip 250, leaving behind a glorious 8% bullish engulfing candle on the 3H chart and also the weekly low point: 232.6.

Bearish defenses held control of 265 and forced the bulls into a rather tight ~5% range between 250 and 265 for the next few days.

On Thursday, the bulls managed to finally break their opponents position with a strong rally that put bearish resolve to the ultimate test and established the weekly high point: 287.1.

The bears took advantage of the huge RSI divergence on most hourly charts, including the 4H, to initiate a counterattack on Friday. This move took the inebriated bulls by surprise and pushed them back almost 9%.

Using the 2H 55 EMA around 265 as temporary support, the bulls restarted their offensive, targeting a higher high above 285. However, that was a short-lived weekend attempt, as the bears easily intercepeted and crushed the initiative on Saturday at 275.

Sunday was going to be another red day. The bears kept the pressure on and managed to recover another ~9% after pushing an exhausted bull force back to the 250 support.

Action closed at 253.22, ending the week with a decent +5.21% bull win. That could have been a crazy 23% result, if it weren’t for the remarkable bearish comeback.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are doing their best to create a lower low around 255, but the bulls are keen on staying above the 55 exponential on the 4H.

Bullish scenario

The bullish winning streak is real: this is their 8th consecutive win.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can stay above 240, they might be able to put the pressure on the 260 resistance and push towards the 285-300 zone.

Check. This was exactly what happened: bulls established support above 250 and attacked the 285-300 resistance zone, touching 287.1 mid-week.

A confident close above 300 should expose 370 to attacks and eventually put the ATH on the table.

Failed/in progress. This option is still very much on the table, assuming the bulls manage to protect the daily golden cross.

The bulls must stay above 220. If they can, optimally, find a reliable support above 250, they should be able to easily flip 265 and potentially close above 288.

The next target would be 300 and the bear infested 315-335 resistance area. A decisive win above 340 should expose 400 and the ATH in the near future.

Bearish scenario

The bears defended well, but that was still a disappointing week for them.

As previously reported:

Ideally, the bears would probably need to promptly reject bullish efforts at 250, flip 230 and quickly push the price below 210 in an attempt to reverse the golden cross and trap bull forces.

Failed. They didn’t even touch 230: the weekly low was 232.6 on Monday. Furthermore, the bears weren’t able to contain the bulls below 250 and were forced into a reactionary mode, always leaving the initiative to their opponents.

This week is crucial, as the bears have less than 5 days to prevent the bulls from completing the third candle in their three white soldier formation, which is super bullish and indicates a bullish reversal on the monthly chart.

No compromise: the bears have to target 209 and at the very least close below 220. That should bring back RSI into a more neutral territory on most charts and could potentially give the bears another shot at 180 soon.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are slowly but surely approaching the monthly 55 EMA resistance.

The week started at .006079 with a bull attack around .0065. The bears blocked bull access above that level and pushed back their opponents to .00615 on Tuesday. That level proved to be a reliable support.

The bulls tried the same move again the very next day. Bears finally had to give up .0065 on Thursday and retreat towards .007. The weekly high was recorded on Friday at .007064.

The bears recovered some ground over the weekend, after successfully rejecting a second .007 bull attempt on Saturday, around .00695.

The action closed at .006401. That was another good result for the bulls, but the +5.29% win could have been at least 3 times juicier, if it weren’t for the resilient bears fighting for their lives.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are still looking strong, but they need to curb their enthusiasm a bit and prepare to encounter shady bear moves ahead.

As previously reported:

There is no doubt at this point that the bulls are preparing to push deeper into enemy territory and turn .006 into a solid support. (last week)

Check. .0061-615 looks like a decently reliable support so far.

Close above .0063 to expose .0067 and the monthly 50 EMA resistance zone around .007-72. (two weeks ago)

Check/in progress. Bears managed to touch the bottom of that zone with last week’s .007064 peak. The last time that happened was almost a year ago, in June 2021.

If the bulls can stay above .0057, and ideally above .00615, they should get another chance to print a higher high very soon.

Confidently break .0073-74 to clear both weekly and monthly moving average resistances and trigger a huge green wave up, initially targeting .01.

Bearish scenario

The bear situation is getting desperate, but it’s not hopeless.

As previously reported:

Momentum is currently not on their side, but .006 is still contested currently. [..] If the bears can flip back that important level, they should be able to force the bulls into a .0053-56 retreat.

Failed/in progress. The bears briefly touched .005962 on Monday, but that was the weekly low. Bulls are currently in control of .006, although the zone can still be contested.

If the bears can keep the monthly RSI below 50, flip .006 and close below the 4H 200 EMA around .0055, they should be able to attack .0053 next.

A close below .005 would undo most of the damage, reverse the daily golden cross, trap the bulls and expose .0046.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 15, 2022

Mon, 18 Apr 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 235.08 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), bottomed at 216.06 on Monday and closed the week’s action at 240.68 (+2.42%~).

The action

Most of Week 15 action took place in a tight ~6% range between 225 and 240. The bulls were forced into a very defensive stance early on, but they managed to relieve the pressure with a quick counterattack. It was a rather uneventful period, as the RSI never touched overbought/oversold territories during the period on any chart, hourly and up.

The bears engaged the enemy with a 220 push and painted an aggressive 9% bearish engulfing candle on the 2H chart on Monday. However, a confident bull defence of the 200 EMA support locked the weekly low point at 216.06.

On Tuesday the bulls retaliated, targeting 250, with an equally proportioned move. The counterattack was deflected at 250.02 by the bears. That was the top.

The rest of the week was pretty quiet. The bulls were happy to make use of the 50 exponential on the 4H to build the higher highs of a small ascending triangle. The bears seemed content to defend the 240 resistance line, while waiting for reinforcements.

Action closed at 240.68, ending the week with an indecisive +2.42% bull win. The hidden victory was the resulting golden cross on the daily, that could have immense consequences for the balance of power in the coming weeks.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are struggling to win back 250 after a sharp bull strike that broke through the ascending triangle resistance.

Bullish scenario

The bulls have pulled off their 7th consecutive win. This is significant and it signals very serious intentions.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can stay above the weekly 50 EMA around 210 for at least one more week, they should be able to pull off the goden cross on the daily. (last week)

Check. The bulls were successful in securing a relatively stable support above 220 and have completed the much anticipated daily golden cross.

[..] they should be able to flip 230 and mount a serious 250 assault soon enough. (2 weeks ago)

Check/ongoing. 230 is in bull hands and the 250 assault has already started.

If the bulls can stay above 240, they might be able to put the pressure on the 260 resistance and push towards the 285-300 zone.

A confident close above 300 should expose 370 to attacks and eventually put the ATH on the table.

Bearish scenario

Time is running out for the bears. They are getting used to conceding territories at this point.

As previously reported:

If the bears can somehow construct a bearish engulfing candle on the daily and take advantage of the curbed RSI on several hourly charts, they might be able to pierce 210 and win back the psychological 200 level.

Failed. Monday was their best day. Unfortunately for them, that red candle was insufficient for a victory in the 200-210 area.

Ideally, the bears would probably need to promptly reject bullish efforts at 250, flip 230 and quickly push the price below 210 in an attempt to reverse the golden cross and trap bull forces.

If they can do that and close below the weekly 50 EMA (under ~205), they should be able to march towards 180 in an attempt to destroy any short term bullish dreams.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are reigning supreme after another great week.

The week started at .005596 with a bear strike in the .00525 territory. The bulls stopped that from developing right at the 3H 50 exponential moving average. The weekly low was registered at .005261.

The bulls flipped .0057 the following day, on Tuesday, with an impressive ~17% move. That was the high point of the week: .00622.

The bears managed to save face after a very difficult week for them, with a ~5% retrace that closed the action at .00608. That was a solid effort for the bulls and a well deserved +8.8% result.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are enjoying their rewards produced by the daily golden cross from two weeks ago.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can build a higher low and ideally find support above .0052, we should see a .006 strike soon.

Check. A temporary support was secured above .0053 and the bulls have touched .00622 and closed slightly above that at .00608. (last week)

[..] Targets in the .006-67 region are still on the table, provided nothing goes very wrong in the following weeks. (two weeks ago)

Check/in progress. There is no doubt at this point that the bulls are preparing to push deeper into enemy territory and turn .006 into a solid support.

Their main objectives remain unchanged:

Close above .0063 to expose .0067 and the monthly 50 EMA resistance zone around .007-72. (last week)

Bearish scenario

The bears are disappointed, but they do live to fight another week.

As previously reported:

The bears have to stop any further bull advancement into their territory and win a small victory in order to shift current momentum. If they can time a RSI divergence-synchronized attack and push the action below .005, they should get another shot at .0046.

Failed. They never got close enough to strike .005, after getting blocked on Monday at .005261. Momentum is currently not on their side, but .006 is still contested currently.

If the bears can flip back that important level, they should be able to force the bulls into a .0053-56 retreat.

Close below .005 to undo most of the damage and expose .0046.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 14, 2022

Mon, 11 Apr 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 217.06 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), peaked at 244.58 on Saturday and closed the week’s action at 235.00 (+8.21%~).

The action

Most of Week 14 action took place in a ~15% range between 210 and 240. The bears controlled the action until the weekend, when they were forced into a defensive position around the 240 resistance by a surprise bull attack.

The bears initiated the action with a quick attack targeting the 210 level on Monday. Unfortunately for them, that was easily deflected and the week’s low was registered at 209.43.

Bullish reinforcements used the 4H 50 exponential as support to launch several 230 attacks throughout the week, on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. All attempts failed.

Finally, on Saturday the bulls managed to breach 230 and recorded the weekly high point at 244.58.

The bears promptly denied a second assault on Sunday and closed the action at 235.00, concluding the week with a decent +8.21% win for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are testing bull defenses around the 200 EMA on the 2H at 220.

Bullish scenario

The bulls should not get complacent, even though this is their 6th consecutive win.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can stay in control of the newly established support above 200, they should be able to flip 230 and mount a serious 250 assault soon enough.

Check/in progress. The bulls have secured a relatively stable support above 200, around 210-220. However, their efforts to control 230 were unconvincing at best.

If the bulls can stay above the weekly 50 EMA around 210 for at least one more week, they should be able to pull off the goden cross on the daily.

A confident close above 250 should unlock an interesting battle for 300 in the near future.

Bearish scenario

The bears need a big win, otherwise they should get ready for more pain.

As previously reported:

The bears need to keep control of 230 if they still want to express any offensive ambitions in the near future.

Check. But the bull forces are still present in proximity of sensitive targets.

If they can flip 200 and close below the weekly 50 exponential, we might see another battle for 180.

Failed. The bears haven’t done enough to get close enough to 200 last week.

If the bears can somehow construct a bearish engulfing candle on the daily and take advantage of the curbed RSI on several hourly charts, they might be able to pierce 210 and win back the psychological 200 level.

The momentum shift could force the bulls into a defensive stance and open up a clear path to 180.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bears failed to prevent the golden cross on the daily and the bulls have finally won a decisive battle after 11 months of struggle.

The week started at .004682 with a bear attack on .0046 that was quickly blocked at .004599. That was the week’s low.

The bulls kept assaulting .0048 for the next 48 hours and managed to pierce .005 on Thursday.

On Friday the bears tried to counterattack and briefly pushed the bulls back all the way to .0046 with a remarkable ~10% rejection candle.

The massive weekend rebound surprised everyone when the bulls easily broke through .0052-53 resistance and touched the weekly high point at .005752.

The bell saved the bears any further embarrassment by closing the action at .005588. A glorious +19.34% win for the bulls.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are ecstatic right now but there is still work to be done.

As previously reported:

If that happens and the bulls flip .005, we should see a .0053 assault soon. Targets in the .006-67 region are still on the table, provided nothing goes very wrong in the following weeks.

Check/in progress. The bulls flipped .005, crushed .0053 and are closing in on .006-region targets.

If the bulls can build a higher low and ideally find support above .0052, we should see a .006 strike soon.

Close above .0063 to expose .0067 and the monthly 50 EMA resistance zone around .007-72.

Bearish scenario

The bears have failed, but nothing is permanent.

As previously reported, this was to be expected:

There is a high probability that the bears will not be able to maintain the sub-.005 containment perimeter for much longer.

However, if the bears could pierce the daily 50 & 200 EMAs and confidently close below .0044, they might be able to trap the bulls and restart a full offensive campaign.

Failed. The bears did their best to quench bullish appetite on Friday, but that wasn’t enough.

The bears have to stop any further bull advancement into their territory and win a small victory in order to shift current momentum.

If they can time a RSI divergence-synchronized attack and push the action below .005, they should get another shot at .0046.

Close below both moving averages around .00449 to reverse most of the damage and boost morale.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 13, 2022

Mon, 04 Apr 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 215.67 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), peaked at 225.38 on Tuesday and closed the week’s action at 217.17 (+0.82%~).

The action

Week 13 action was confined to a rather tight ~7% range between 210 and 225. Both sides did their best to take control of the initiative but in the end the bulls were forced into executing a tactical retreat and had to settle with a small, but not insignificant victory.

The bulls quickly engaged the enemy and managed to briefly pierce 220. They got rejected at 225.38 on Tuesday and that was the week’s high.

Bearish reinforcements took advantage of the momentum shift and flipped 220, essentially keeping the action below that level.

Although bulls counterattacked in an attempt to print a higher high, they got rejected on three separate occasions: on Wednesday, Friday and Saturday.

Luckily for the bulls, 210 proved to be a very reliable support. Despite last minute efforts, the bears were unable to conquer the weekly 50 EMA during the weekend. Friday’s 209.00 was the week’s low point.

Action closed at 217.17, with a small +0.82% win for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are trying to defend 220.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are doing well and they are close to a big breakthrough.

As previously reported:

The bulls need to find support above 205 while waiting for the overbought RSI to cool off on most hour timeframes.

Check. Worked out as planned: support at 210, RSI already in the green zone between 50 and 70 on most charts.

If they can find the strength to flip 230, a 250 attack would be imminent. The daily golden cross, if it happens, would put the fight for 275-300 on the horizon:

Failed/in progress. The bulls were rejected just below 230, but the rapidly approaching daily golden cross is telling a different story. The bullish campaign is heading in the right direction.

If the bulls can stay in control of the newly established support above 200, they should be able to flip 230 and mount a serious 250 assault soon enough.

Close above 255 to get a shot at fighting in the exciting 300-330 range and potentially clear a path towards the ATH.

Bearish scenario

The bears aren’t worried enough. They will be forced to retreat if they don’t secure a win soon.

As previously reported:

The bears have no choice but to reinforce and defend the 220-230 area now.

Check. So far, they did manage to defend the area and restrict bullish activity above 225. But it was very close.

If they can prevent a devastating daily golden cross, the bears might be able to make a spectacular comeback [..]

Failed/in progress. Although the golden cross did not yet happen, they did very little to stop or slow it for the past week. That’s a fail in my book.

The bears need to keep control of 230 if they still want to express any offensive ambitions in the near future.

If they can flip 200 and close below the weekly 50 exponential, we might see another battle for 180.

Win that and ideally print a bearish shooting star candlestick on the monthly to expose 150.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) both sides are struggling for control inside the .0455-49 zone.

The week started at .004603 as the bears were attempting to push the action towards .0045 on a counterattack. They were blocked by bullish forces at .004540. That was the week’s low.

Bulls consistently assaulted .0047 for the rest of the week with little success. They did manage to touch .0049 on Friday when they established the weekly high point at .004904.

This triggered a vicious reaction from the bears which resulted in a considerable ~7% rejection on Sunday.

The bell closed an erratic week at .004682. A rather small +1.83% win for the bulls.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are slowly stabilizing an advantageous position above the daily 200 EMA.

As previously reported:

The bulls have to stay above .00465 and attempt a close above .0048.

Failed/in progress. The bulls did barely close above that level, at .004682, but they got crushed immediately after touching .0049.

Nevertheless, time seems to be on their side as the daily golden cross is steadily progressing.

If that happens and the bulls flip .005, we should see a .0053 assault soon. Targets in the .006-67 region are still on the table, provided nothing goes very wrong in the following weeks.

Bearish scenario

Bears are looking exhausted and almost ready to give up at this point.

As previously reported:

If the bears can force a death cross on lower timeframes, break the 4H 200 exponential and pierce .00446, a .0043 assault would soon follow.

Failed. No deathcross above the hourly, didn’t even touch the 200 EMA on the 4H and the .00454 low was certainly not very impressive.

There is a high probability that the bears will not be able to maintain the sub-.005 containment perimeter for much longer.

However, if the bears could pierce the daily 50 & 200 EMAs and confidently close below .0044, they might be able to trap the bulls and restart a full offensive campaign.

A .004 victory would expose .0035 and crush all bullish hopes for a long time.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 12, 2022

Mon, 28 Mar 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 194.65 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), quickly bottomed at 188.48 on Monday and closed the week’s action at 215.41 (+10.82%~).

The action

Week 12 marked the fourth week in a row dominated by the bulls. Bears were simply unable to mount any serious resistance to stop the bulls from registering the 3rd 10%+ weekly close in a row.

Bears did their best to keep the action below 200 for the first half of the week. The weekly low was recorded on Monday at 188.48.

On Thursday the bulls started to push back and the momentum shifted. Supported by the 4H 50 EMA around 190, they initiated the 200 assault.

The resistance would only hold until the beginning of the weekend. On Saturday the bears had to give up the psychological level and retreat towards 210-220.

It was the bell that stopped the bulls: action closed at 215.41, with a confident +10.82% victory for the attackers.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are pushing back just below 220.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are very close to pulling off a remarkable monthly close.

As previously reported:

If they can gather enough energy to strike and pierce both the daily 200 and weekly 50 EMAs, around 210-215, we could see a significant rally towards 250.

Check. Bulls pierced and closed above both the daily 200 and weekly 50 exponential moving average resistances. The 250 march is next on the agenda.

The bulls need to find support above 205 while waiting for the overbought RSI to cool off on most hour timeframes.

If they can find the strength to flip 230, a 250 attack would be imminent. The daily golden cross, if it happens, would put the fight for 275-300 on the horizon:

Take control of that zone [230-250] to fight for 300 next.

Bearish scenario

The bears are in a pretty bad shape, but they can still reverse the damage, provided they move fast and decisively.

As previously reported:

The bears were marginal winners of 200 and probably won’t be able to handle another assault in that area.

Failed. Exactly as expected, they were unable to defend the fragile 200 resistance.

The bears have no choice but to reinforce and defend the 220-230 area now.

It is going to take something special, but the bears have to at least attempt to retake 200, the sooner the better.

If they can prevent a devastating daily golden cross, the bears might be able to make a spectacular comeback:

If the bears can push the action away from the danger zone and below 180, they should be able to attack 165 next. That could potentially force the bulls into adopting a more defensive stance.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bears have won back the daily 200 EMA and the bulls are slowly losing control of the action.

The bears started the week at .004718 and quickly pushed the action below .0046. Bulls were forced to defend .00455 for the first half.

On Thursday the bulls tried to counterattack but were promptly rejected around .0047.

Bears recorded the weekly low point on Friday at .004489 after briefly piercing the 2H 200 exponential support.

Bullish reinforcements arrived just in time to support a weekend rally that produced the week’s high on Sunday at .004815.

The week closed at .004598, with a small ~2.6% win for the bears.

Bullish scenario

The bullish campaign is looking shaky.

As previously reported:

If the bulls can defend .0046 and close above .00495, they should get another shot at winning .0054.

Failed. The .0046 level is still disputed territory and .00495 was untouchable.

The bulls have to stay above .00465 and attempt a close above .0048. If that happens, we could see a good monthly close in a few days.

If they can push for the golden cross on the daily and flip .005, the bulls would be in a great position to fight for targets in the .0060-67 region soon.

Bearish scenario

Bears are doing better, but there’s no time to rest right now.

As previously reported:

If the bears can pierce .0045, the bulls would be forced to defend .0043 and scrap offensive plans.

Failed. They barely touched .0045 but that was a rather gentle touch and insufficient to completely shift momentum.

If the bears can force a death cross on lower timeframes, break the 4H 200 exponential and pierce .00446, a .0043 assault would soon follow.

A confident close below .004 would trigger .0035 nightmares for the bulls.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 11, 2022

Mon, 21 Mar 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 175.21 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and peaked at 204.38 on Sunday before closing the week’s action at 194.38 (+10.57%~).

The action

Week 11 was fully dominated by the bulls. Scattered bear opposition could only do so much to slow down their advancement and keep it contained inside the 175-200 range.

Bulls started the week by extending the 165 support perimeter towards the 4H 50 EMA around 175, after the .786 fibs bounce from the previous week.

Profiting from their advantageous position, with fresh golden crosses on most hour charts, the offensive was met with little to no resistance.

Bearish resolve was tested during the weekend, as bulls stormed 200 on Saturday. The psychological level held after bears defended the crucial 200 exponential on the daily, but barely.

On Sunday the bulls came back for round 2 and got rejected after touching 204.38, as hourly RSI divergences attracted a prompt bear response. That was the week’s high point.

The action closed at 194.38, with a solid +10.57% victory for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, both sides are fighting for control of 190.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are in a great position, but the window of opportunity could close soon.

As previously reported:

If they can keep the action above 180 and cascade a golden cross from lower time frames to the daily, their opponents would be in big trouble.

Check/in progress. While they did manage to take control of 180, the bulls have yet to induce the daily golden cross.

If they can gather enough energy to strike and pierce both the daily 200 and weekly 50 EMAs, around 210-215, we could see a significant rally towards 250.

Take control of that zone [230-250] to fight for 300 next.

Bearish scenario

The bears are only in real control of 1 single chart currently: the daily. It’s do or die time.

As previously reported:

The bears need to stop the bulls from taking 200 and push the action below 180 as quickly as possible.

Check/in progress. The bears were marginal winners of 200 and probably won’t be able to handle another assault in that area.

If the bears can push the action away from the danger zone and below 180, they should be able to attack 165 next. That could potentially force the bulls into adopting a more defensive stance.

Close below 150 to expose 135.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are doing their best to keep control of the recently conquered daily 200 EMA, but the bears are fighting back hard.

The bulls started the week at .004645 with a small .00455 victory which turned into Tuesday’s rally and culminated with a ~7% spike.

That was the week’s high point: .004922.

Defending bears managed to keep the rest of the action confined to a rather tight range: .00455-485.

The week closed at .004720, with a tiny ~1.34% win for the bulls.

Bullish scenario

The bullish campaign is looking very promising at this point.

Let’s check the previously reported objectives:

If the bulls can take .005, push the weekly RSI above 53 and close above .0054, we could see a .0060/64 rally soon.

Failed. Bulls missed the .005 attack (only touched .004922). The weekly relative strength index is under 52 and the .006 rally was put on hold.

If the bulls can defend .0046 and close above .00495, they should get another shot at winning .0054.

That should be enough activity to create a golden cross on the daily and open up juicy targets in the .006X range.

Bearish scenario

Bears are finally showing some life signs, but no results to be proud of so far.

The bears have to push the action below .0046 in order to retake control of the important 200 daily exponential and use that as resistance against further aggression.

Failed. Just being close to winning .0046 is not enough. The 200 daily EMA is still contested and very much controlled by the bulls.

If the bears can pierce .0045, the bulls would be forced to defend .0043 and scrap offensive plans.

A confident close below .004 would trigger .0035 nightmares for the bulls.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 10, 2022

Mon, 14 Mar 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 158.38 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), peaked at 207.75 on Wednesday and closed the week’s action at 175.80 (+10.22%~).

The action

The bears started Week 10 full of confidence and were looking certain to capture 160 as the action briefly dipped below the key level, piercing the 2H 200 EMA before touching 153.33 on Monday.

Unfortunately for them, that was the week’s low point, as the bulls were very much ready to counter that move.

What followed was going to surprise the bears and most pundits: the bulls secured 160, broke 180 and touched 200 all in one single blitz attack that lasted less than 24 hours.

The impressive ~35% surge was going to be the weekly peak, as bearish reinforcements showed up to defend the daily 200 EMA and managed to block any further advance at 207.75 on Wednesday.

Bulls quickly started to lose steam and were unable to secure a stable strategic position above 200.

In less than 8 hours, the bears exploited 1/2H relative strength index divergences to initiate a counterattack, forcing the bulls to retreat to a safe .786 Fibonacci Retracement level, just above 160.

On Sunday the bulls tried to start another impulse wave up from the 4H 200 exponential, but the bears immediately stopped that higher high from developing under 195.

The action closed at 175.80, with a promising +10.22% result for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, 180 is where the action is at. Both forces are struggling for control of the area.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are in a very good position, supported by the daily 50 EMA.

As previously reported:

The bulls have to defend 150-160 and use that support to restart their offensive campaign towards 180.

Check: defended 150-160, now fighting for 180.

A close above 190 would restart hopes of fighting for 200 and 230.

Failed: very close, there is still work to do.

If they can keep the action above 180 and cascade a golden cross from lower time frames to the daily, their opponents would be in big trouble.

A close above 215 would probably trigger a 230-250 run. Take control of that zone to fight for 300 next.

Bearish scenario

The bears should prepare to defend. They don’t have a lot of options currently.

As previously reported:

Bears need to retake 160 and use its strategic value to launch attacks inside the heavily defended bull zone: 135-150.

Failed: except for Monday, this was definitely not a good week for them.

The bears need to stop the bulls from taking 200 and push the action below 180 as quickly as possible.

A close below 160 would essentially kill the freshly initiated higher high / higher low formation, while exposing 150 and 135.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are relentlessly advancing into enemy territory and the bears are struggling to come up with an answer.

The bulls started the week at .004140 with an apparent conservative approach. They were looking rather satisfied with defending positions above relevant moving averages.

All that changed mid-week, when the bears failed to spot the 4H golden cross and defend .0044 against a suprise attack. They were forced to quickly reposition above the weekly 50 EMA.

The furious bulls pinged .005344 on Wednesday, after a ~30% spike. That was the week’s high.

Bears briefly pushed back the action all the way to .0043. That only lasted until the weekend though, as the bullish retaliation resulted in a close just above the daily 200 exponential, at .004658 (+12.51%).

Bullish scenario

The bullish campaign is looking very promising at this point.

Let’s check the previously reported objectives:

Break .00425 to unlock more impressive targets [..]

Check: targets unlocked.

If the bulls can find support above .0041 and close above .00445, they should be able to target .0048 next.

Check/ongoing: good solid close at .004658 and they did venture above .0048 twice last week.

If the bulls can take .005, push the weekly RSI above 53 and close above .0054, we could see a .0060/64 rally soon.

Victory in that zone opens up an opportunity to strike critical resistances under .0075 (weekly 200 & monthly 50 EMAs).

Bearish scenario

Bears are in denial and need to find a good counter soon.

The bears need to stop the bulls from building their higher high / higher low pattern.

Failed: bears could not stop the bullish impulse.

A successful defense of .0043/44 and a close below .0041 would open up previous targets for the bears [..]

Failed (miserably): the bull blitz strike caught the bears off-guard.

The bears have to push the action below .0046 in order to retake control of the important 200 daily exponential and use that as resistance against further aggression.

If the bears can win back .0043, a close below .004 is definitely possible.

That would put .0035 back on the table, as a viable target.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 9, 2022

Mon, 07 Mar 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 150.14 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), peaked at 181.08 on Thursday and closed the week’s action at 159.50 (+5.95%~).

The action

The first half of Week 9 was dominated by bull attacks. The bears had to defend until the weekend, before getting a chance to counterstrike.

After flipping 160 on Monday, the bulls started marching towards the important 180 resistance.

The bears were forced to defend the area for 3 days: Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

Bulls finally started to lose steam after printing the week’s high at 181.08 on Thursday.

Riding on RSI divergences, the bears managed to push them back to 160 on Saturday and deny the bulls a glorious ~20% result.

The action closed at 159.50, with a bitter +5.95% result for the bulls.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are actively defending 160.

Bullish scenario

The bulls sure have their work cut out for them.

As previously reported:

The bulls are currently planning to strike 160.

Check. They managed to win 160 but the zone is now being disputed again.

A close above 180-190 would open up a clear path to 230.

Failed. Although very close, they have wasted a great opportunity to close above 180.

The bulls have to defend 150-160 and use that support to restart their offensive campaign towards 180.

A close above 190 would restart hopes of fighting for 200 and 230.

Bearish scenario

The bears defended well and should get ready to push deep into enemy territory.

As previously reported:

The bears need to slow down bulls around 160-165 so they buy enough time to deploy defending troops at the 180 resistance.

Check. This is precisely what happened.

If they can stop bulls from closing above 190, they will surely get a counterstrike opportunity. That would put 160 and 135-140 on the map again.

Check. They are in a good position right now.

Bears need to retake 160 and use its strategic value to launch attacks inside the heavily defended bull zone: 135-150.

Win 135 to force bulls into a shameful retreat towards 90-110.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are finally starting to make some progress as the bearish narrative is weakening.

The bulls started the week at .003998 with a solid defensive move that ended up blocking a bear blitz attack at .003846. That was the week’s low point.

It was apparent to everyone that the bears will not be permitted to push the action below the hourly 200 EMA.

By Friday, the daring bulls had already printed goldencrosses on most hourly charts: 2, 3 and 4H.

The last time they managed to pull this off was back in December of 2021.

Although the week’s high was recorded on Sunday at .004451, the bears started pushing back just before the bell and managed to recover some ground.

Bulls had to settle with the +3.60% result after the action closed at .004140.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are in a great position.

Let’s check the previously reported objectives:

A pierce of the 4H 200 EMA with a close above .0041 should be the first priority for the bulls.

Check. The bulls are now in full control of the 4H 200 exponential.

Break .00425 to unlock more impressive targets [..]

Failed, but they did briefly managed to push the action above .00425 during the weekend.

If the bulls can find support above .0041 and close above .00445, they should be able to target .0048 next.

Bearish scenario

Bears are in a bad spot but all is not yet lost.

The bulls are now toying with the idea of cascading goldencrosses from the hourly to bigger timeframes. Bears could put an end to all that on the 3H at the 200 exponential around .00405.

Failed. The bears weren’t able to stop the powerful bull move.

Then, if they can close below .00395, previously reported targets would suddenly become viable [..]

Failed. Their blitz attack was stopped on Monday and they never got another chance to close below .00395.

The bears need to stop the bulls from building their higher high / higher low pattern.

A successful defense of .0043/44 and a close below .0041 would open up previous targets for the bears:

If the bears can strike and retake .0039, they should be able to focus on .0038 next and .0035 eventually [..]

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 8, 2022

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 153.82 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), bottomed at 131.91 on Thursday and closed the week’s action at 150.55 (-2.51%~).

The action

Week 8 has been a roller coaster: bears were looking invincible during the first half, before the bulls heroically defended a crucial support which lead to a spectacular counterattack.

The bulls had two shots at higher highs on Monday at 160 and Wednesday at 155. Both times, the bears firmly rejected them at the 2H 50 EMA.

On Thursday, the speculative bearish efforts finally paid out as they briefly took control of the very important support area and printed the week’s low at 131.91.

Fortunately for the bulls, the area is essentially a stronghold: the weekly 200 & 50 weekly and monthly exponentials meet there.

The bulls initiated the counterattack at the first sign of RSI divergences (1/4H) just as the bears were running out of ammo. This produced an impressive daily candle with a ~11% rejection to the downside.

It was the bell and the 200 EMA on the 2 hour chart that temporarily stopped the 160 bull campaign.

The heated action closed at 150.55, with a -2.51% result for the bears.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are going for an hourly goldencross which would help them flip 160.

Bullish scenario

The bulls have a small window of opportunity. They should make the best of it.

Let’s analyze the previously reported objectives:

With only 7 days left until the monthly close, the bulls absolutely have to stay above the monthly 50 exponential in the 130-140 zone.

Check. Bears got very close with the 131.91 low, but the bulls have successfully defended the area for now.

If they manage to defend the crucial support, retake 160 and then confidently close above 190, the previously reported targets would become viable again [..]

In progress. The bulls are currently planning to strike 160.

A close above 180-190 would open up a clear path to 230.

Bearish scenario

The bears missed their shot and have to defend now.

As previously reported:

[..] they are planning the 135 decisive attack.

A bear victory in that area would be massive. The weekly and monthly charts are the last bull bastions. Break those supporting moving average zones and the bulls would be forced to defend 90-110 next.

Failed. The 135 assault was simply not strong enough to break the bulls.

The bears need to slow down bulls around 160-165 so they buy enough time to deploy defending troops at the 180 resistance.

If they can stop bulls from closing above 190, they will surely get a counterstrike opportunity.

That would put 160 and 135-140 on the map again.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls can’t seem to find any space for elaborate offensive moves as the bears are constantly harassing them from all angles.

The bulls started the week at .004009 with a promising attack that was cleanly rejected just under the 200 EMA on the 4H. That was the week’s high: .004143.

Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, the bulls were forced to retreat and defend .0038.

The bears were stopped at .003796 by a surprise weekend counterattack based on RSI divergences. That was the week’s low.

Bears were denied a -5% win as the action finally closed at .003997 after bullish efforts, for an insignificant -0.36% result.

Bullish scenario

The bulls need to start a higher high / higher low pattern.

Let’s check the previously reported objectives:

If the bulls can defend .0039 and return to take control of .00425, previously reported targets should be within reach [..]

1/2. They managed to, in the end, close above .0039. But that’s about it.

A pierce of the 4H 200 EMA with a close above .0041 should be the first priority for the bulls.

Break .00425 to unlock more impressive targets:

A close above .0044 would put .0048 and eventually .0054 on the map.

Bearish scenario

Bears have to stop dropping the ball. Inconsistency could lead to their downfall.

If they can keep riding the daily RSI momentum and stop the bulls from breaking above any of the hourly resistances, the next targets should become very clear [..]

The bulls are now toying with the idea of cascading goldencrosses from the hourly to bigger timeframes.

Bears could put an end to all that on the 3H at the 200 exponential around .00405.

Then, if they can close below .00395, previously reported targets would suddenly become viable:

If the bears can strike and retake .0039, they should be able to focus on .0038 next and .0035 eventually [..]

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 7, 2022

Mon, 21 Feb 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 173.51 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), peaked at 183.53 on Wednesday and closed the week’s action at 154.42 (-11.41%~).

The action

The first half of Week 7 was controlled by the bulls, but the silent bears were setting up a trap that would soon deliver a devastating blow to their opponents.

The bulls attempted to break 180 on Tuesday and Wednesday, but failed miserably. The week’s high was recorded at 183.53 on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the exhausted bulls were forced to retreat when faced with a perfectly timed bear counterattack. The bears won a decisive battle by rejecting the bulls below the daily 50 EMA.

The bear troops proceeded to relentlessly assault 160 for 3 days in a row. By Sunday, the decimated bulls had to give that territory up too and relocate to 150 support.

The action closed at 154.42, concluding the week with a solid victory for the bears: +11.41%.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are struggling to stay above 150, as the bears are regrouping for another push.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are in denial at this point.

Let’s analyze the previous objectives:

The bulls have to take 180, whatever the costs. If needed, it’s okay to temporarily retreat to 160, regroup and come back for another round. No shame in that.

Tried, but failed to take 180. Also failed to clearly defend 160.

They might need to defend 160 soon, unless they can produce a golden cross on the 4H and use momentum in their favor to launch another 180 assault.

Failed: the bears managed to produce a deathcross on the 4H instead.

With only 7 days left until the monthly close, the bulls absolutely have to stay above the monthly 50 exponential in the 130-140 zone.

If they manage to defend the crucial support, retake 160 and then confidently close above 190, the previously reported targets would become viable again:

[..] prepare a 200 assault and then make plans for 220-230.

Bearish scenario

The bears are in a great position right now:

If the bears can push the action below 160 and trigger several death crosses on lower time frames, they should afford to resume offensive plans:

Check. Deathcrosses on most timeframes: 1H, 2H, 3H, 4H and the daily.

To recap: defend 180, take 160 and plan for 135 next.

Check/ongoing. This is exactly what happened: they easily defended 180, broke 160 on the third try and now they are planning the 135 decisive attack.

A bear victory in that area would be massive. The weekly and monthly charts are the last bull bastions. Break those supporting moving average zones and the bulls would be forced to defend 90-110 next.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are throwing everything they have at the resilient bear defense.

The bulls started the week at .004133 with a thirst for victory and with a clear purpose of producing a higher high/higher low pattern.

Although the bears kept displaying obvious signs of weakness throughout the week, the sustained bull attacks failed to deliver and the weekly high was recorded mid-week, on Wednesday, at .004213.

Bears defended the 4H EMA and kept pushing back until the weekly low was recorded at .003950 on Sunday.

The action finally closed at .004011, a -2.85% result for the bears.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are surely disappointed with the result, but there is still hope.

If the bulls can close above .00425 and push for a .044 win, the next targets are very clear [..]

They came very close to touching .00425 with the .004213 high.

If the bulls can defend .0039 and return to take control of .00425, previously reported targets should be within reach:

A close above .0044 would put .0048 and eventually .0054 on the map.

Bearish scenario

Bears are inching closer to victory.

A solid defence of .0042-43 around the daily 50 exponential moving average would keep .004 hopes alive.

Check. The bears managed to defend .0042 and the daily 50 EMA is untouched.

If they can keep riding the daily RSI momentum and stop the bulls from breaking above any of the hourly resistances, the next targets should become very clear:

If the bears can strike and retake .0039, they should be able to focus on .0038 next and .0035 eventually [..]

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 6, 2022

Mon, 14 Feb 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 174.12 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), bottomed at 187.53 on Tuesday and closed the week’s action at 174.30 (+0.44%~).

The action

Week 6 was dominated by unconvincing bull attacks and anemic bear rejections. Both sides were more than happy to compromise and sacrifice big moves in favor of conservative results.

The bulls wasted two chances to break 180 on Tuesday and Thursday. The week’s high was recorded at 187.53 on Tuesday.

By Friday, the bears managed to push the action below the 180 level after bulls finally realized that the daily 50 EMA can not be pierced at this time.

The bulls rushed to defend 160 but the bear counter was so weak that it only touched 164.31 at the beginning of the weekend. That was the low point of the week.

The action closed at 174.30, concluding the week with a insignificant +0.44% result.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are actively defending the 4H 200 exponential just under 175.

Bullish scenario

The bulls need to regroup and strike again.

Their plan was clearly delayed:

After that the bulls have to flip 180 in order to reactivate offensive plans in the 200-240 range.

Denied. Time for plan B?

The bulls have to take 180, whatever the costs. If needed, it’s okay to temporarily retreat to 160, regroup and come back for another round. No shame in that.

They might need to defend 160 soon, unless they can produce a golden cross on the 4H and use momentum in their favor to launch another 180 assault.

If all goes well, previously reported targets should be on the map (200 > 230 > 250 > 300):

If victorious, just stay above that key level long enough to prepare a 200 assault and then make plans for 220-230.

A convincing close above 250 would be a very significant result that would open up a direct route to 300.

Bearish scenario

The bears are in a decent, but fragile position.

They did defend 180, but the performance was not very convincing:

A solid defense of 180 would actually be very bad for the bulls, so that should be top priority.

Done, but it was close. This perceived weakness might invite further bull presence in the area.

If the bears can push the action below 160 and trigger several death crosses on lower time frames, they should afford to resume offensive plans:

Using RSI divergences to time intelligent counterattacks would make 135-140 viable targets once more.

To recap: defend 180, take 160 and plan for 135 next.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the action is heating up with both sides struggling for dominance. No clear winners at this point.

The bulls started the week at .004097 with a positive attitude, happy to fight above the 2H 200 EMA.

Unfortunately for the bulls, they failed to touch .0043 and the weekly high was recorded on Tuesday, at .004236.

The bear counterattack forced a bull defense of .004. The weekly low was .003929, printed by bears on Saturday.

The action finally closed at .004129, sandwiched between 3H moving averages, for an inconclusive +0.86% result.

Bullish scenario

The bull campaign is being slowed down by resistances on all charts in the form of moving averages.

As previous reports stated, the bulls are close to a significant victory:

Best case scenario is the former (a close above .0041), which would open up previously reported targets [..]

Check. But it is too close to call.

If the bulls can close above .00425 and push for a .044 win, the next targets are very clear:

A close above .0044 would put .0048 and eventually .0054 on the map.

Bearish scenario

Bears need to defend and pay attention to counterattack opportunities.

A solid defence of .0042-43 around the daily 50 exponential moving average would keep .004 hopes alive.

Check. They did defend .0042 and now the daily RSI is curbing down.

If the bears can strike and retake .0039, they should be able to focus on .0038 next and .0035 eventually:

Use that resistance area to target .0038. A win at that level would expose .0035 to attacks [..]

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 5, 2022

Mon, 07 Feb 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 148.20 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), bottomed at 140.78 on Monday and closed the week’s action at 173.54 (+17.36%~).

The action

The first half of Week 5 was dominated by uncertainty. Both bears and bulls were looking exhausted and unable to build any kind of significant moves.

Monday’s 140.78 was the week’s low.

Unfortunately for the bears, their efforts were simply not good enough to close the January candle below the monthly 50 EMA.

On Thursday the bulls easily defended 140 for the second time and it was clear at this point that the bears were just bluffing, stalling until reinforcements arrive.

Friday was marked by the bullish flippening of 150 and the start of a vicious counterattack that was destined to break 160.

The bears rushed to defend the 200 exponential on the 4H and the crucial 180 level. It was the bell that temporarily stopped the bulls at 173.54, concluding the week with a powerful +17.36% result.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are under heavy fire around 180, very near the daily 50 EMA.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are fully awake right now. They have successfully flipped 160, as previously reported:

If they can take advantage of the cocky bears and the RSI divergences on several charts, they should be able to target 160 soon.

Check.

After that the bulls have to flip 180 in order to reactivate offensive plans in the 200-240 range.

In progress.

The bulls have to take 180, whatever the costs. If needed, it’s okay to temporarily retreat to 160, regroup and come back for another round. No shame in that.

If victorious, just stay above that key level long enough to prepare a 200 assault and then make plans for 220-230.

A convincing close above 250 would be a very significant result that would open up a direct route to 300.

Bearish scenario

The bears need to psychologically stabilize.

Yes, they did fail their main objective:

If the bears can close below the monthly 50 EMA, 95-120 territory should be their next target.

And then this happened, as reported:

But if they fail and can’t pierce the monthly 50 EMA, they will probably be forced to retreat and defend 180-200 instead.

But this was to be expected.

The bears need to realize that not all is yet lost as we are still in a downward corrective structure: in bear territory.

A solid defense of 180 would actually be very bad for the bulls, so that should be top priority.

That would give them an opportunity to retake 160 and keep the pressure on the bulls. Using RSI divergences to time intelligent counterattacks would make 135-140 viable targets once more.

Whatever happens, bears should not concede 230.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bears are running out of steam but bulls are barely hanging on.

The bears started the week in gung ho mode at .003902.

The first 48 hours were very scary for the defending bulls. The bears forced the action to sub-.0037 levels.

On Tuesday the bulls were almost ready to give up as the bears printed the weekly low at .003721.

Fortunately for the bulls, that was the last hurrah. The bears ran out of manpower.

The counterattack was spectacular and produced a ~13% rally that culminated on Friday and topped at .004208. This was the week’s high.

The bears defended the 2H 200 EMA during the weekend and closed the action at .004094, a fair +4.96% result for the bulls.

Bullish scenario

The bulls need to pull off a repeat of January 13th 2022.

That’s the last time they managed to produce a golden cross on the 2H.

Let’s check the previous report:

[..] defend .0038 and quickly go all-in on .004 with everything they have right now

That’s pretty much what happened, although the bulls were playing with fire by briefly allowing bears in the danger zone at the beginning of the week.

Best case scenario is the former (a close above .0041), which would open up previously reported targets [..]

In progress. They closed at .004094, that very, very close indeed.

Targets are the same:

A close above .0044 would put .0048 and eventually .0054 on the map.

Bearish scenario

Bears came close to a breakthrough, but now they need to defend.

[..] if they can flip .0035, the bulls will be in a world of pain

Failed, but they did manage to advance deep into bull territory that was last touched in March 2021. That’s something.

A solid defence of .0042-43 around the daily 50 exponential moving average would keep .004 hopes alive.

Use that resistance area to target .0038. A win at that level would expose .0035 to attacks:

It probably won’t be easy, but if they are victorious, we could see sub-.003 action soon.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 4, 2022

Mon, 31 Jan 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 155.95 (Poloniex XMR-USDT), bottomed at 134.32 on Monday and closed the week’s action at 147.87 (-5.55%~).

The action

Week 4 started with a continuation bear attack that was aimed at breaking 135. The bulls barely managed to defend the weekly 200 EMA.

Monday’s 134.32 was the week’s low.

The bulls started taking advantage of multiple RSI divergences (1-4H) to mount counterattacks in the second half.

On Wednesday they almost touched 160 but got rejected at the 50 exponential on the 2H.

The exhausted bears did their best to fragment the game over the weekend and closed the action at 147.87 for an inconclusive -5.55% result.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, both forces are struggling to take control of 140.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are yet to show any real sign of strength.

They did, however, manage to almost touch 160 by riding RSI divergences, as previously reported:

If they can take advantage of the cocky bears and the RSI divergences on several charts, they should be able to target 160 soon.

Check. But they still need to actually break 160 before thinking of 180:

After that the bulls have to flip 180 in order to reactivate offensive plans in the 200-240 range.

Pending. Same objectives still stand, but they can’t delay the offensive campaign much longer.

Bearish scenario

The bears look rather tired.

Although they did defend 160, there is no time for rest.

If they can take advantage of the monthly bearish engulfing candle that is about to close in a matter of hours, previous targets should be on the map:

If the bears can close below the monthly 50 EMA, 95-120 territory should be their next target.

But if they fail and can’t pierce the monthly 50 EMA, they will probably be forced to retreat and defend 180-200 instead.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the constant bearish pressure is starting to affect their opponents.

The bears kicked-off the week at .004320 and [spoiler alert] pretty much controlled the action for the entire period.

The bulls had to give up .0044 offensive plans to prioritize defending the psychological .004 level.

Insistent bears managed to keep most of the action below that level and even kissed .00385 on Tuesday.

There simply was not enough space for the bulls to build any kind of relevant bounce and the hourly 50 EMA did act as a decent resistance.

The action closed at .003900 for a consitent -9.59% result for the bears.

Bullish scenario

The bulls need to wake up, fast.

However, if they can stop the bears from pushing the action below .004, they should get a chance to strike back.

Failed.

Whatever happens, the bears should not be allowed to play around the .0038 danger zone.

Failed. We are in the danger zone right now.

The bulls have two choices:

a) defend .0038 and quickly go all-in on .004 with everything they have right now

b) concede, retreat towards .0035 and hopefully rendezvous with reinforcements

Best case scenario is the former (a close above .0041), which would open up previously reported targets:

A close above .0044 would put .0048 and eventually .0054 on the map.

Bearish scenario

Bears have done well for themselves:

Well, they probably want to: a) close under .004, b) strike .0038 and c) flip .0035.

2/3 completed: if they can flip .0035, the bulls will be in a world of pain:

It probably won’t be easy, but if they are victorious, we could see sub-.003 action soon.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 3, 2022

Mon, 24 Jan 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 224.84 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and bottomed at 140.46 on Saturday before closing the week’s action at 156.56 (-30.09%~).

The action

Week 3 started with a small bull attack around 230 that got rejected easily.

By Tuesday the bears were in full control of the action.

The bulls rushed to defend the psychological 200 level and did their best to reinforce the support until Thursday.

Deathcrosses started to cascade from the hourly all the way to the 4H. A predictable bull force retreated to the battle-tested 180 long-term support.

However, the bears were already expecting that move and this time they weren’t going to back down.

The weekend was disastruous for the bulls. Not only did they lose 180, but were forced to defend 150 until the last bell.

Bears closed the action at 156.56 for a massive -30.09% result.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are pushing their luck, probing deep into enemy territory around 140.

Bullish scenario

The bulls did screw up, big time.

They have failed to take 230 and close above 255:

[..] they should get some breathing room which can be used to plan a 220-230 attack.

Provided that works out as planned, they have to commit to a 250 victory (a close above 255 more specifically) if they don’t want to scrap 300 plans.

Failed. No longer a priority.

The bulls have to come up with a counter-attack but the timing must be perfect.

If they can take advantage of the cocky bears and the RSI divergences on several charts, they should be able to target 160 soon.

After that the bulls have to flip 180 in order to reactivate offensive plans in the 200-240 range.

Bearish scenario

The bears deserve the credit.

After repeated attacks, they finally made it:

As long as bulls are not allowed to escape the descending triangle with a close above 255, they will probably get another shot at a counter-attack targetting 200-215. Break that to expose 180 again.

Push fast and hard and the bulls will probably retreat to defend the vital 150 support.

Done. And this time, 180 did break and the bulls aren’t looking strong enough to defend 150 at this point.

If the bears can close below the monthly 50 EMA, 95-120 territory should be their next target.

The area should be tough to crack, but not impossible. Win there to enable 2-digit skirmishes and a path to the 45 bull fortress.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are losing steam fast.

The week started at .005207 with a bull attack aimed at .0054 that quickly turned into a bear counter-attack by Tuesday.

The bulls had to give up .005 for good mid-week, when it was very clear to everyone that the bears meant business.

On Saturday the bears took .0046 easily after a 2H deathcross.

Bulls struggled to defend .0043 as the furious bear assault touched the week’s low .004125.

The action closed at .004314 for an impressive -17.03% result for the bears.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are still in it.

Previously reported objectives were not accomplished:

If the bulls can construct and ride the next impulse wave, a close above .0054 would expose .006.

Close, but no cigar.

However, if they can stop the bears from pushing the action below .004, they should get a chance to strike back.

A close above .0044 would put .0048 and eventually .0054 on the map.

Whatever happens, the bears should not be allowed to play around the .0038 danger zone.

Bearish scenario

Bears are showing signs of redemption.

They have literally passed all tests:

If the bears wake up in time to defend .0055 and contain the bull efforts by pushing the action below .005, they can start thinking of an actual counter-attack aimed at .0045-46 and .0043 after that.

Check.

They have to stop the bulls from reversing the daily deathcross that has been in effect since August 2021.

Double-check.

What’s next? Well, they probably want to: a) close under .004, b) strike .0038 and c) flip .0035. It probably won’t be easy, but if they are victorious, we could see sub-.003 action soon.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 2, 2022

Mon, 17 Jan 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 190.79 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and bottomed at 179.5 on Monday before closing the week’s action at 223.95 (+17.23%~).

The action

The start of Week 2 was looking very promising for the bears. Monday was probably the most important day of the week.

The bears pushed for a final 180 attack but the battle-tested support level held against all odds. This was the week’s low point: 179.5.

Bullish forces were quick to take advantage of weaknesses in the bear move that were clearly signaled by RSI divergences on the hourly.

The bears were forced to retreat and give up the psychological 200 around the 1H 200 EMA resistance zone mid-week, on Wednesday.

On Thursday the confident bull reinforcements started to undo damage from previous week by flipping deathcrosses on several charts, including the 4H.

The bears temporarily blocked any further bull victories around 230 but it wasn’t enough for a counter-attack.

Bulls closed the action at 223.95 for a promising +17.23% result.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are testing bearish resolve around the 230 resistance area.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are now in a decent position, but they can still screw this up.

They have accomplished one out of their two objectives:

However, if they can defend 180 once more, they should get some breathing room which can be used to plan a 220-230 attack.

Check. This is 100% exactly what happened, as reported last week.

Provided that works out as planned, they have to commit to a 250 victory (a close above 255 more specifically) if they don’t want to scrap 300 plans.

In progress. This is their next target.

If everything goes according to plan, they should expect skirmishes in the 280-300 territory very soon and an exciting 340 target after that.

Bearish scenario

The bears have lost momentum and they have to defend now. They had an opportunity to break 180, but failed.

However, they still have an advantage: the downward pressure of the daily 200 exponential.

If they can defend that zone around 240-250 and prevent a golden cross, they should be fine.

As long as bulls are not allowed to escape the descending triangle with a close above 255, they will probably get another shot at a counter-attack targetting 200-215.

Break that to expose 180 again.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are pushing more and more into a disoriented bear defence.

The week started at .004556 with a quick bear attack that only lasted for 24 hours.

On Tuesday, the bulls took control of the action after successfully defending .00436 at the 4H 200 EMA.

The bulls never really let go of their advantage and kept chipping away at the .0053-54 resistance all week.

On Thursday they managed to print the week’s high at .005400. On Saturday they tested the level again but got rejected and had to retreat to .00496 before attacking for a third time on Sunday.

The action closed at .0052 for an impressive +14.14% result for the bulls.

Bullish scenario

The bears are looking strong.

They need to keep pushing, the big victory is close:

If the bulls can construct and ride the next impulse wave, a close above .0054 would expose .006.

Almost! They are very, very close to this. The bulls literally tocuhed .0054 last week.

Previous reporting still stands:

A breakout above .006 could be massive as it might take the bulls on an exciting mission to .009-01. A win there should send the bears scattering to defend .014 next.

Bearish scenario

Bears are in trouble right now.

The previous report warned against getting complacent:

The bears are playing it right, but complacency could still ruin their day.

They have to pressure the bulls into fighting below .005. A break under .0045 might be their only chance ..

They failed, but slightly.

They have to stop the bulls from reversing the daily deathcross that has been in effect since August 2021.

If the bears wake up in time to defend .0055 and contain the bull efforts by pushing the action below .005, they can start thinking of an actual counter-attack aimed at .0045-46 and .0043 after that.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 1, 2022

Mon, 10 Jan 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 239.49 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and bottomed at 179.92 on Saturday before closing the week’s action at 191.03 (-20.19%~).

The action

The bears started Week 1 of 2022 with a counter-attack that was to become a very effective 7-day campaign.

The bulls still seemed to be on top of things for the first few days, as 220 support was looking decent.

However, the bears were certainly not prepared to let the January 1st RSI divergences created by bullish assaults slide.

The prolonged counter-attack culminated mid-week, with Wednesday’s push. The bears managed to penetrate EMA-based supports on several charts, including the 4H, and touch the psychological 200 bull support level.

On Saturday, the bears aimed for the absolute nuts with a daring attack of the key 180 bull fortress and registered the weekly low at 179.92.

The bulls defended, but it was way too close. The resulting anemic bounce closed the week at 191.03 and temporarily ended the bull misery.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the outnumbered bulls are desperately preparing to defend 180 for the n’th time, as fresh bear reinforcements strategically prepare for the glory shot.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are in trouble. They failed their objective to find a reliable support above 220:

If they can find a reliable support above 200-220, the bulls would definitely be on the right path to breaking 250 and could target 300 next.

However, if they can defend 180 once more, they should get some breathing room which can be used to plan a 220-230 attack.

Provided that works out as planned, they have to commit to a 250 victory (a close above 255 more specifically) if they don’t want to scrap 300 plans.

Bearish scenario

The bears have the initiative and the tactical advantage: death crosses everywhere, weak key support in sight and an unquenched thirst for blood.

All of the previously reported objectives were accomplished last week:

The bears should definitely take the fight and engage with everything they can if the bulls dare attack 250. That’s an important level to be defending. The bulls will need to flip that resistance in order to mount 300 attacks in the near future.

Check.

It would be great if they could stop the bulls from advancing and breaking 250. If that’s not possible, they should definitely be denied access above 270 at all costs.

Double check. Good solid rejection.

If they can keep the action close to 230 for long enough, the daily golden cross window will close for the bulls and that can give the bears an opportunity to strike 200.

Triple check. Window closed.

Break that to create a wave failure and expose 180 again. Not easy, but possible.

Totally exposed at this point.

All they have to do now is not mess this up. Push fast and hard and the bulls will probably retreat to defend the vital 150 support.

If they can actually touch and pierce the weekly 200 exponential, 130 is not out of the question. Just note that the bulls will probably be prepared to fight until the last man for this territory.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bears are starting to push back and it seems to work.

The week started at .005065 with both sides fighting for control over the daily 200 EMA.

On Tuesday, the bulls finally gave up on their offensive stance and seemed content to fight below the key .005 resistance.

The insistent bears pulled off an hourly death cross on Thursday and also successfully defended it the very next day.

The weekly low of .004394 was registered on Saturday but the scattered bulls defended the .618 fibs and closed the action at .004555, a disappointing -10.05% result.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are not out of the game yet.

They did fail to accomplish the objective:

They need to break .0048 and get close enough to .005. If they can flip that and close above the daily 200 EMA, .0055 could be the next target just under the weekly 50 moving average.

Denied.

Now all they have to do is make sure to reinforce .005 so it doesn’t fall into bear hands again.

Failed, but there’s no reason they cannot try again.

If the bulls can construct and ride the next impulse wave, a close above .0054 would expose .006. At that point, anything is possible:

A breakout above .006 could be massive as it might take the bulls on an exciting mission to .009-01. A win there should send the bears scattering to defend .014 next.

Bearish scenario

The bears are playing it right, but complacency could still ruin their day.

They have to pressure the bulls into fighting below .005. A break under .0045 might be their only chance ..

Check. They are probing the 4H 200 EMA in the .0044-45 range right now.

Break under that level to expose .0043 and start making plans for .0039 battles in the near future.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 52, 2021

Mon, 03 Jan 2022 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 217.33 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and bottomed at 202.38 on Wednesday before closing the week’s action at 239.35 (+10.5%~).

The action

A confident bull force kicked-off the last week of 2021 (Week 52) with a 230 blitz attack which triggered a frenetic bear counter-attack around 235 on Monday.

The angry bears mounted a convincing -6.5% rejection wick to the upside on the daily candle and they actually got close to breaking the 200 support mid-week.

However the bulls were paying attention and put the 4H 200 EMA to good use, as support.

Although the bears did print the weekly low at 202.38 on Wednesday, that wasn’t enough to prevent a golden cross from cascading to the 4H chart.

The bulls celebrated Saturday, the 1st of January 2022, by enjoying the week’s high at 252.42 after breaking 230 on their third attempt.

Bearish reinforcements arrived just in time to defend the daily 200 exponential MA and closed the weekly action at 239.35.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are looking to set up a temporary support zone around 220-230 to construct a higher low.

Bullish scenario

Bulls have done well for themselves by completing an important objective.

As previously reported:

If they can maintain the higher high/higher low bullish structure and cascade moving average crossovers from the 1H/2H to the 4H+, the bulls should soon get a chance to test 250.

Check. Exactly as planned.

A close above that important level could also lead to a death cross reversal on the daily and a bullish hammer on the monthly. That would be an amazing way to end the year and could also mean we get to see fights above the 300 level in January.

In progress.

If they can find a reliable support above 200-220, the bulls would definitely be on the right path to breaking 250 and could target 300 next.

A decisive win in that area would put the bulls in a great position to tackle 400-430, eventually.

Bearish scenario

The bears did their best, but it might not be enough.

As previously reported:

The bears should definitely take the fight and engage with everything they can if the bulls dare attack 250. That’s an important level to be defending. The bulls will need to flip that resistance in order to mount 300 attacks in the near future.

Check. But the area is still exposed.

It would be great if they could stop the bulls from advancing and breaking 250. If that’s not possible, they should definitely be denied access above 270 at all costs.

If they can keep the action close to 230 for long enough, the daily golden cross window will close for the bulls and that can give the bears an opportunity to strike 200.

Break that to create a wave failure and expose 180 again. Not easy, but possible.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the revitalized bullish campaign is starting to expose holes in bear defenses.

The week started at .004277 with both sides struggling to control the action.

On Wednesday, the bulls finally won a showdown just above the 2H 50 EMA. The bears couldn’t have possibly predicted the carnage that this apparently insignificant loss would soon trigger.

The bull assault continued until the last day of the week and due to little to no resistance, they victoriously printed the high at .005316 on Sunday.

The furious rally printed RSI divergences on most hourly charts and the bears took advantage of the exhausted bull forces to retake some recently lost territory with only hours left in the year.

The action closed at .005064 with a massive +18.51% result for the bulls.

Bullish scenario

The bulls look unstoppable at this point.

They are still working on the second part of the previously reported main objective:

They need to break .0048 and get close enough to .005. If they can flip that and close above the daily 200 EMA, .0055 could be the next target just under the weekly 50 moving average.

In progress, with 1/2 done.

Now all they have to do is make sure to reinforce .005 so it doesn’t fall into bear hands again.

A breakout above .006 could be massive as it might take the bulls on an exciting mission to .009-01. A win there should send the bears scattering to defend .014 next.

Bearish scenario

The bears have failed again, but they are still in it.

Bears have to defend the 4H 200 EMA and reject the bulls below .0041 if they want to get another shot at .0039.

Although they could not stop the bulls, as long as they defend .0055-56, it’s not game over.

They have to pressure the bulls into fighting below .005. A break under .0045 might be their only chance:

[..] they can fight in their normal sub-43 range again and take aim at .0039.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 51, 2021

Mon, 27 Dec 2021 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 183.67 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and quickly bottomed at 179.82 on Monday before closing the action at 216.48 (+17.8%~) to deny the 6th consecutive red week.

The action

Week 51 started with a furious bull attack that almost broke the bear resistance just under 200 on Tuesday. The bulls won a well deserved crossover on the hourly before getting rejected at 198.

The bears weren’t able to push the action back inside the triangle. This opened up a new attack vector to be exploited by the bulls. On Thursday they did just that with another blitz attack that almost pierced the 200 EMA on the 4H chart.

On Saturday the bulls pushed once more and printed the weekly high at 218.57. Bears were helpless all week and obviously no match for the bull frenzy.

The fourth assault was on the very last day of the week. The bulls showed no mercy. Only one thing stopped the bulls from closing higher than 216.48: the bell.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are still in total control: they are orchestrating another push deep inside enemy territory around 230.

Bullish scenario

Bulls finally managed to break 200 with a series of rather convincing attacks.

The small triangle breakout has put the bulls in a good position now, as previously reported:

A lucky breakout would put the bulls in a position to test 220-230 first and then 250 if .618/.786 fib retracement levels aren’t strong enough.

If they can maintain the higher high/higher low bullish structure and cascade moving average crossovers from the 1H/2H to the 4H+, the bulls should soon get a chance to test 250.

A close above that important level could also lead to a death cross reversal on the daily and a bullish hammer on the monthly. That would be an amazing way to end the year and could also mean we get to see fights above the 300 level in January.

Bearish scenario

The bears have to be disappointed with their performance. Although they were very close to taking 180 four weeks in a row, the number of wasted opportunities finally got to them.

But all is not lost, as we are still in bear territory.

The bears should definitely take the fight and engage with everything they can if the bulls dare attack 250. That’s an important level to be defending. The bulls will need to flip that resistance in order to mount 300 attacks in the near future.

If the bears can reject the ongoing bull attack and keep the action below the weekly 50 EMA (under 235~), they might be presented with a counter-attack opportunity this week that could take them back to retest 200-210.

Break that to create a wave failure and expose 180 again. Not easy, but possible.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are finally starting to push back.

The week started at .003939 and the bears only got one single chance to break .0039, on Wednesday.

Not only did they fail miserably, but the bulls managed to grab an important victory on Thursday that ended with a triangle breakout and printed the week’s high at .004411.

The bears responded promptly with an impressive 10% rejection the very next day that pushed the action back inside the triangle, but only barely (to .00398~).

However, the bulls were having none of it: they were tired of defending and decided to switch to gung-ho mode immediately after the weekend started. That lead to a golden cross on the 3H. It’s impressive because the last time that happened was in August.

The action closed at .004273 with a solid +8.44% result for the bulls.

Bullish scenario

The bulls are starting to develop a helpful narrative, as previously reported:

A higher high & higher low pattern would allow the bulls to close above .0043 and could take them all the way to .0048.

They need to break .0048 and get close enough to .005. If they can flip that and close above the daily 200 EMA, .0055 could be the next target just under the weekly 50 moving average.

Bearish scenario

The bears have failed to defend key zones and are now forced to defend:

Bears have to defend the 4H 200 EMA and reject the bulls below .0041 if they want to get another shot at .0039.

Fortunately for them, months and years of hard bearish work will be hard to undo by a single bull victory.

A successful defense of either .0048 or .005-52 would initiate a dead cat bounce at the .382 fibs and stop any developing bull HH/HL pattern. Then they can fight in their normal sub-43 range again and take aim at .0039.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 50, 2021

Mon, 20 Dec 2021 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 197.89 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and bottomed at 177.00 on Friday before closing the action at 183.75 (-7.2%~) to register the fifth consecutive week in the red.

The action

The first half of Week 50 had a familiar theme: bulls were struggling for air against never-ending suffocating bear attacks near the crucial 180 support.

On Wednesday the bulls had an opportunity to counter-attack and break 200, but unfortunately they got rejected at the 4H 50 EMA and had to retreat again.

By Friday both forces were totally exhausted but the bears did briefly pierce 180 to create the week’s low point at 177.00. Bulls closed the action at 183.75 for a bitter -7.2%.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are encountering some resistance at the hourly 200 exponential moving average around 185.

Bullish scenario

Bulls did not manage to break 200 and barely defended 180.

We are rapidly approaching the triangle apex and the bulls don’t have much time left to accomplish the previously reported objectives:

Unless they break out of the current bearish structure and close above 200 by printing a higher high, this week can and will get even worse. 180 is getting weaker and weaker with each bear attack and it won’t hold forever.

A lucky breakout would put the bulls in a position to test 220-230 first and then 250 if .618/.786 fib retracement levels aren’t strong enough.

Bearish scenario

The bears are still in a decent position as the weekly RSI is approaching bearish territory (around 38), but time is running out for everyone.

If they can actually break the stubborn bull defense with a convincing close under 180 and keep the action below that level for long enough, we will probably see a full bull retreat towards 140-150 in a desperate attempt to defend the monthly 50 EMA.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) there was no clear winner. Extreme signs of fatigue managed to corrupt the spirit of both bull and bear forces.

The week started at .003950 and the bears seemed eager to break .0039. On Thursday they were close to doing just that but got rejected at .0038. That was the week’s low.

The bull counter-attack that followed the same day prompted a quick bearish retreat above .004. The resistance held at .0041, the week’s high.

On Sunday the bulls were forced to defend .0039 once more. The bears closed the action at .003941 for an inconclusive -0.26% result.

Bullish scenario

The bulls need to break .0041.

The fact that they are already close to pulling off a 50/200 EMA crossover to the positive on the hourly is a good sign. If that happens, there’s a good chance they can cascade that event on higher time frames.

A higher high & higher low pattern would allow the bulls to close above .0043 and could take them all the way to .0048.

Bearish scenario

Bears have to defend the 4H 200 EMA and reject the bulls below .0041 if they want to get another shot at .0039.

Unfortunately, the RSI doesn’t look very promising on any relevant TF: it seems to be curbing up into neutral territory.

This means time is quickly running out. Previous reporting still stands:

If they don’t stall any longer and strike now with enough conviction, nothing can stop them. The bulls would probably have to retreat to .0034.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 49, 2021

Mon, 13 Dec 2021 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 200.30 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and bottomed at 185.81 on Monday before touching the 213.99 high on Wednesday. The week closed at 198.12 (-1.2%~). This is the fourth consecutive week in the red.

The action

The bears started Week 49 with a blitz attack that got shut down immediately just above the critical 180 bull support area.

Midweek the bulls managed to put together a positional assault that was meant to break the 4H 50 EMA. However bearish reinforcements were expecting this move and blocked them under 215, at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

The second part of the week was dominated by the bears. They got another chance at testing 180 on Friday but the outnumbered bulls somehow managed to stay on their feet and defend the zone once more.

On Sunday the bulls got one final shot at breaking out of the descending triangle but the energy wasn’t there and the bearish forces got their lower high on the chart and closed the action at 198.21 (-1.2%~).

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are completely dominating the action, having pushed the price down dangerously close to the key bull support just above 180.

Bullish scenario

The bulls were aleardy in a world of trouble last week.

Unless they break out of the current bearish structure and close above 200 by printing a higher high, this week can and will get even worse. 180 is getting weaker and weaker with each bear attack and it won’t hold forever.

If a miracle happens and the bears drop the ball, the bulls should get another shot at reversing most of the damage and recapturing 220 is not impossible. The bears would be forced to defend 250 in that scenario.

Bearish scenario

The bears are in a good position. They are consistently mounting attacks in the vicinity of the 180 bull fortress.

Now all they have to do is actually break it and force a bitter bull retreat towards 150.

The weekly 200 EMA is a strong support and will probably be a rather tough nut to crack but the bears can deal with that when the time comes.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are starting to lose their motivation with each failed attack.

The week started at .004074 with a successful bull defense of the .0039 turned into a counterattack. The bears stopped them from attempting a .0043 assault on Wednesday with a nice rejection at the daily 50 EMA.

That was the week’s high: .004220.

On Thursday the constant bearish pressure finally paid off as they managed to paint the MACD red with a crossover to the negative side on the daily.

The very next day, the bulls were forced to defend .0039 again. The bears printed the week’s low at .003898 before closing the action at .003951 (-3%~).

The bulls still have a chance of winning on this front, but they need to regain their focus.

Objective number one should be a confident close above .0043. Then they can start constructing a HH/HL favorable pattern that could take them all the way to .0048.

Having the initiative is crucial, as the best defense is a good offense and they know .0039 can’t take much more heat.

Bears are ready to pull the trigger and capture .0039.

If they don’t stall any longer and strike now with enough conviction, nothing can stop them. The bulls would probably have to retreat to .0034.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 48, 2021

Mon, 06 Dec 2021 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 239.14 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and bottomed at 178.00 on Saturday, before closing the week at 200.77 (-16%~).

The action

Week 48 started with a bull attack under the 4H 200 EMA, but that looked more like dry run as they barely managed to touch the 250 resistance once.

On Wednesday, the bears flashed a deathcross on the daily. This was a bad omen for the bulls.

They did, however, get another chance to create a higher high on Friday, but failed. That was the final nail in the coffin as bears were just about ready to furiously strike back.

The counter-attack was devastating and the weekly 50 EMA didn’t hold this time. Within 24 hours the bulls were forced to retreat all the way to 180. This is the fortress captured by bulls in February. The bears last attempted to take it back in July.

Luckily the key support did hold as fleeing bulls connected with reinforcements on Saturday. The zealous bears did overextend a bit and were forced to retreat at previously captured 200. That’s exactly where the action closed, a -16% result.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are struggling to reverse some of the damage by testing the bear resistance at the hourly 50 EMA.

Bullish scenario

The bulls failed to achieve their number one objective last week:

The bulls need to prevent the daily deathcross that’s currently looming in the air.

That alone has put them in a world of trouble.

The daily RSI is entering oversold territory and that might be a chance for them to get back in the fight.

If they can keep the action away from the danger zone (180) and use divergences on lower timeframes to their advantage, they should get another chance at 220. That’s also the .618 fibs. A victory there would put 245-250 on the map again.

Bearish scenario

The bears accomplished both objectives for the previous week:

If they can stop the bulls from further developing their HH/HL micro pattern just below 250, a close under 210 is not out of the question.

Check: denied higher high/higher low micro pattern under 250 > closed just under 210 at 200.

A move with enough volume behind it might see the bears knocking on the gates of the 180 bull fortress next.

That’s exactly what happened: they touched 178.00.

Now, if they can manage to defend the .382 fibs and use the 200-205 dead cat bounce correctly, another go at 180 is definitely possible.

I wouldn’t be surprised if a break of that level would see the bears striking the weekly 200 exponential moving average at 145-150 next.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the action was very erratic all week and the results inconclusive.

The week started at .004169 with bulls sieging .0043. This was essentially a continuation of previous week’s campaign.

The bears managed to successfully defend the 4H 200 EMA again by rejecting repeated attacks on Tuesday, Friday and Saturday.

On Saturday, the exhausted bulls were forced to briefly retreat at .0039 for resupplies. The action closed at .004075 (-2.3%~) with another red candle.

The bulls have to keep fighting. It is a war of attrition, but the bears aren’t invincible. A MACD crossover on the weekly is in the making. If they can stay active until that happens, it could be the turning point on this front.

As previously reported, if bulls could finally take .0043:

[..] they should at least get a shot to fight for .0045/47 next.

Bears should prepare whatever energy they have left for a final push to break .0039. If they can force the daily MACD to cross to the negative side, the momentum should be in their favour.

Previous reporting still stands:

Next time, if they manage a strong close under .0039, they should keep the action under that price if they want to make a play for .0034 this year.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 47, 2021

Mon, 29 Nov 2021 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 250.2 (Poloniex XMR-USDT) and dropped all the way to 217.8 on Friday to form the weekly low, before closing at 238 (-4.8%~).

The action

The bears took control of the action as soon as Week 47 started and easily defended 250 by denying a bull attempt to pierce through the daily 200 EMA.

Fleeing bulls found refuge at previous support around 225.

They didn’t have to wait too long for reinforcements: come Thursday, they got the chance to mount another 250 attack with fresh supplies.

Unfortunately, the bears saw that coming and the trap would cost their opponents dearly.

In less than 8 hours, bullish forces were devastaded. With no one left standing, the bears barbarously blitzed through and didn’t stop until 217 on Friday. That’s bull territory that they last visited in September.

The bears did lose some steam during the weekend and the bulls reacted by closing the action at -4.8%.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are desperately trying to defend the important weekly 50 EMA support.

Bullish scenario

The bulls need to prevent the daily deathcross that’s currently looming in the air.

They could start by flipping the 4H 50 EMA and then using it as support for yet another 250 attack.

If they are successful, that might trigger a positive crossover on the daily MACD, which would in turn open up 280 as a potential next target.

Bearish scenario

The bears did a good job last week and are certainly happy with the results. But that doesn’t mean they can just go back to hibernating.

If they can stop the bulls from further developing their HH/HL micro pattern just below 250, a close under 210 is not out of the question.

A move with enough volume behind it might see the bears knocking on the gates of the 180 bull fortress next.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) both bull and bear forces are showing signs of extreme fatigue as the brawling space is tightening.

The week started at .004276 with bears defending .0043. Bulls attempted to brute force the area three times this week, on Wednesday, Thursday and Sunday.

Although the bulls did manage to connect with reinforcements at .004 on every occasion, none of their campaigns succeeded.

The action closed at .004177 (-2.3%~), sandwiched between the familiar 50 & 200 moving averages on the 4H.

The bulls are aware of what they have to do: win .0043 and do it this week, while the bears are still weak.

As reported last time, if they are victorious:

[..] they should at least get a shot to fight for .0045/47 next.

Bears need to stop wasting resources and combine all efforts in one big push aimed at breaking .004.

Previous reporting still stands:

Next time, if they manage a strong close under .0039, they should keep the action under that price if they want to make a play for .0034 this year.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 46, 2021

Mon, 22 Nov 2021 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 274.9 (Hitbtc XMR-USDT) and dipped to 224.2 on Thursday to form the weekly low, before closing at 250.4 (-8.9%~).

The action

Week 46 was a nightmare for the bulls. The bears managed to catch them by surprise and interrupted a weak bullish attempt at a higher high just under 280.

Tuesday was probably the bloodiest day of the week. The critical bear attacks left behind lots of cascading deathcrosses on the hourly, 2H, 4H, 6H and even the 12H. The last time that happened was 2 months ago, in September.

The bulls did briefly attempt to defend the 250 support, but quickly retreated after realizing that any resistance would be futile in that zone.

By Friday, the bearish thirst was finally quenched. Althought the bulls did avoid total annihilation by barely rejecting the bears at the 50 weekly EMA, it was clear to everyone that the damage was already done: the daily MACD negative crossover will take some time to reverse.

The action closed at just -8.9%, but that’s only because the bears decided to take a breather. If they would have pushed more, the end result would probably be at least -20% for the week.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are looking for an opportunity to counter-attack under the hourly 200 EMA, but they look rather confused and disconnected from reality.

Bullish scenario

The bulls really need to try and reverse the situation, and do it quickly.

The first target has to be 250: if they can capture that zone and use it as local support, the bears might reconsider their all-in move and focus on defense instead.

That would, by itself, buy some time for the bull reinforcements to arrive. Then they can start to undo some of the damage with a couple of golden crosses.

Provided all that happens, 280 would stop looking like a dot in the night sky and bulls can hopefully resume their offensive campaign.

Bearish scenario

The bears defended 280 and were very close to a succesful close under 250, as reported previously:

The bears have to quit playing with their food, stop reacting and take the initiative: defend 280 right now and push for a close under 250.

All they have to do now is keep the action under the weekly 50 exponential moving average and work on that lower low.

A confident close under 210 is not a dream anymore and if they pull it off, we could see 180 sooner rather than later.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are hanging on for dear life in the face of an exhausted bear army.

The week started at .00419650 with bear strikes around the .004 zone. On Wednesday they barely managed to print a lower low of .00390868.

Fortunately for the bulls, the RSI was telling a different story and exposed some weakness in the bear move with a clear divergence on the daily.

The bulls jumped at the opportunity to close the action at .00427646 (+1.9%~). Not a big win, but that rejection save them from a -7% result.

If the bulls can win .0043, they should at least get a shot to fight for .0045/47 next. The bears don’t look that strong and this is when they need to take the point.

Bears need to pull themselves together if they are to prevent what looks like potential golden crosses on the horizon. Next time, if they manage a strong close under .0039, they should keep the action under that price if they want to make a play for .0034 this year.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 45, 2021

Mon, 15 Nov 2021 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 266.56 (Kraken XMR-USD) and formed a top on Tuesday at 293.81, before closing the week at 275.01 (+3.1%~).

The action

Week 45 was a roller coaster. The bulls started the action by taking advantage of the 1H & 2H golden crosses. That allowed them to mount a quick attack on the 300 resistance.

The promising bullish initiative was promptly rejected by determined bears on Wednesday, immediately after the RSI touched overbought territory.

The bulls were forced to retreat and adopt a defensive stance. Although the bears did their best to capture 250, it didn’t happen: bullish reinforcements arrived just in the nick of time, on Saturday, and managed to withstand the attack.

On the very last day of the week, the bulls pulled off a nice recovery and closed the action slightly in their favour (+3%).

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are trying to construct a HH/HL pattern on the hourly before potentially attempting to break 280 again.

Bullish scenario

The bulls have only accomplished 1/2 of what they had to, as reported previously:

Bulls have to push for a quick break above 280 and then at least keep the action close to the 300 resistance.

Although the bulls managed to quickly break 280, they couldn’t keep the action close to 300 for long enough to be a real threat for the bears.

If they want to attack 320-340, the bulls have to gather momentum and try again. Stay close to 300 and push with conviction. It should break, eventually.

Bearish scenario

Granted, the bears didn’t disappoint when it comes to defensive capabilities.

But how many more attacks can they reject before the bulls get their hands on 300?

The bears have to quit playing with their food, stop reacting and take the initiative: defend 280 right now and push for a close under 250.

Previous reporting still stands:

Bears need to keep pushing for a close under 260 to stop the micro higher high trend that the bulls have started. Then they can attack 250 with everything they have.

A close under 235 should certainly trigger a 200-210 bull retreat.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) it looks like the bulls have barely managed to stop the bears from advancing further into the danger zone. For now.

The week started at .00421146 and there were no major events until Saturday. That’s when the bulls attempted a very hopeful attack that barely pinged the daily 50 EMA and formed the week’s high at .00477. That’s the first time they touch that moving average in over 46 days.

In the end, the bears closed the action at .00419857 (-0.3%~). Stalemate.

If the bulls can orchestrate more fights above .004, they might eventually get a chance to break .0047 and focus on .0053-55 next.

Bears need to stop the bulls from creating a higher high/higher low pattern on lower time frames. They can start by preventing the 4H golden cross and then they can attack .004 and make plans for capturing .0034.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 44, 2021

Mon, 08 Nov 2021 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 275.00 (Kraken XMR-USD) and bottomed on Wednesday at 249.00, before closing the week at 266.57 (-3%~).

The action

Although Week 44 started indecisively, the bears eventually managed to take full control of the action on Wednesday.

Bulls had to endure continuous assaults from the revitalized bear army. The bears overturned positive EMA crossovers (50/200) on several charts, including: 1, 2, 4 and 6H.

Just when the bearish cascading effect was starting to look insurmountable, Sunday came.

That was the day when bulls had enough of it and started to take advantage of the RSI divergences to push back against the now arrogant bears.

What could have easily been a 10% loss for the bulls, ended in a mere 3% weekly close in favour of the bears.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are fighting to undo some of the damage with an hourly golden cross around 270.

Bullish scenario

Last week, the bulls decided to retreat and fight the bears around the crucial 250 support zone, instead of attacking.

The bears must not be allowed to test that fragile outpost again this week, otherwise the bulls will certainly regret their decision.

Bulls have to push for a quick break above 280 and then at least keep the action close to the 300 resistance.

Winning 300 would be a much needed psychological victory for the bulls. At that point, 320-340 would be exposed and the bears might not have a good answer for that.

Bearish scenario

The bearish campaign was quite impressive.

They managed to almost accomplish all of their objectives:

Although everything seems to be working good for the bears, they should not allow the bulls any considerable rest periods.

Yes. The bulls didn’t get a chance to do much last week, thanks to repeated ruthless bearish attacks.

Bears need to keep pushing for a close under 260 to stop the micro higher high trend that the bulls have started. Then they can attack 250 with everything they have.

Very close indeed. They managed to close within visual range of 260.

All they have to do now is defend 280 and force the bulls to retreat at 250 yet again, for the n’th time.

A close under 235 should certainly trigger a 200-210 bull retreat.

Absolutely. Since bullish reinforcements are very far away, a blitz bear attack might just do the trick and probably crush outpost 250. If that happens, the bears will get the chance to fight for 235 and 200 next.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) bears are dominating the action and it looks like the bulls aren’t even attempting to stand in their way.

The week started at .00448355: the bulls gave up on .0045 after being denied a simple 1H golden cross. They decided to retreat around .004 in preparation for imminent bear attacks.

Bears managed another familiar -5.8%~ .00421469 weekly close.

It looks like the bulls have put themselves in a position where they absolutely need to defend .004 again if they don’t want to retreat all the way to 0.0034. However, if a miracle happens and they manage to print a higher high by breaking .0046, then an attack on .005 might be feasible.

Bears have done everything right and it seems like they are almost ready to assault .0034. That zone might prove to be a tough nut to crack, as it is effectively a bull stronghold. If bears win, it’s going down in bear history books. What’s next, 0.002? 0.001? Not sure bulls want to even consider that possibility.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/.

Older XMR TA reports can be found on the /tag/analysis page.

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 43, 2021

Mon, 01 Nov 2021 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 289.13 (Kraken XMR-USD) and bottomed on Wednesday at 250.06, before closing the week at 274.50 (-5%~).

The action

The enthusiastic bulls got shutdown immmediately after the start of Week 43. This was their second attempt to pierce 300 this month (October) with a similar outcome: bears showed up and defended easily.

Bears forced a MACD crossover and some histogram downticks on the daily and took control of the RSI to display a bearish divergence on the 6H chart. That’s when bulls knew they had to give up their current attacking stance and retreat.

The next few days were completely dominated by the bears, as they managed to follow the bulls all the way to 250.

Fortunately for the bulls, come Thursday, the bears ran out of supplies and decided to opt for a tactical retreat. This gave the bulls a chance to retaliate and avoid disaster with a weekly close worth only -5%.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears have engaged the bulls around the .618 fib retracement level (~275-280).

Bullish scenario

Last week’s analysis still stands:

With the gained momentum from last week’s campaign, they now need to gather all forces and break 320-340.

The bulls need to attack and, this time, confidently pierce and capture the 300 bear fortress.

This would have two positive outcomes: leave the 320-340 area open to an assault and also keep the bears occupied and not planning more elaborate attacks on the crucial 240-250 support zone.

And if everything works according to plan:

[..] the ~517 ATH is within reach indeed.

Bearish scenario

The bears are doing OK so far, as reported:

It would be very unwise to give up 300 and they really need to defend the 340 level if there’s any hope of stopping the now highly motivated bulls.

Confirmed. That was a good defense of the 300 zone.

Any small victory would be great at this point and keeping the price under critical levels for prolonged periods of time should exhaust the bulls and must be their priority.

Although everything seems to be working good for the bears, they should not allow the bulls any considerable rest periods.

Bears need to keep pushing for a close under 260 to stop the micro higher high trend that the bulls have started. Then they can attack 250 with everything they have.

A close under 235 should certainly trigger a 200-210 bull retreat.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls have been engaged by incoming .0045 bear reinforcements.

The week started at .00474881 close to last week’s high: the bears attack just below the 4H 200 EMA stopped the bullish forces from advancing.

Outnumbered bulls had to retreat and settle for a -5.7% weekly close at .00447828.

Bulls need to defend .0043-0045 if they want to print a higher low. A break above .00475 might give them a chance to take out the .005 resistance area at the 50 daily EMA.

Bears have discouraged the bulls from attempting a .005 attack with their successful .00475 defense. The only thing left standing in the way of a .0039 attack is a close under .0042.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 42, 2021

Mon, 25 Oct 2021 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 261.08 (Kraken XMR-USD) and created a bottom at 250.14 on Wednesday, before closing the week at 289.12 (+10.8%~).

The action

The bears already had control of the action from the previous period. The first part of Week 42 was dominated by their continuous assaults targeting the 250 zone.

Although they did manage to briefly cascade the 1H and 2H deathcrosses to the 4H, that was countered very quickly by the bulls mid-week.

By the end of the week, bears started to retreat, sensing the ambush ahead. But it was already too late: the bulls timed the attack just right for a glorious weekly close.

Sunday’s bullish engulfing candle and the daily MACD histogram uptick couldn’t be stopped by the baffled bears.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are dealing with some bearish push back around the 300 resistance zone.

Bullish scenario

Bulls did exactly what they had to, as reported last week:

The bulls need to defend 230-250 and reject the bears (preferably at the 200 daily EMA).

Spot on. Rejected at the 200 daily EMA (~250).

[..] a higher low would essentially force the bears to retreat at 280-300 again.

Yep, check. We are here right now. Bears showed up to defend 300.

With the gained momentum from last week’s campaign, they now need to gather all forces and break 320-340.

If they are successful, the ~517 ATH is within reach indeed.

Bearish scenario

Bears did their best, almost touching 250, but that wasn’t enough. They needed to clearly pierce 240, as reported:

If bears continue pushing until the deathcrosses cascade to higher timeframes, they could easily close under 240 with conviction.

It would be very unwise to give up 300 and they really need to defend the 340 level if there’s any hope of stopping the now highly motivated bulls.

Any small victory would be great at this point and keeping the price under critical levels for prolonged periods of time should exhaust the bulls and must be their priority.

Other fronts

On the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC) the bulls are finally starting to fight back and force the bears to take their foot off the gas.

The week started at .00424307 with familiar action patterns: the bulls retreating under heavy bearish fire. The bears almost broke .0039 but Thursday came with a surprising bullish counterattack which caught them totally off-guard.

That was enough to give them full control over the second half of the week. Price closed at .00438257 (+12.2%).

Bulls need to keep the action above .0045 and they will get a chance to break .005 and close above the daily 50 EMA. Reversing a couple of deathcrosses should be within sight at that point (.0055-58).

Bears shouldn’t panic, as we are still very much in their territory. All they need to do is defend .005 and form a lower high. Then they should be able to easily mount another .0039 zone attack.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 41, 2021

Mon, 18 Oct 2021 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 269.50 (Kraken XMR-USD) and created a top at 282.75 on Wednesday, before closing the week at 260.92 (-3.2%~).

The action

Bulls kicked off Week 41 with a simple plan: stall long enough, until the arrival of reinforcements. They got a couple of small wins which pushed the price towards the 280 resistance area again.

This tactic was rather efficient in keeping the bears in a tight range and away from attacking key zones.

However, the bears did manage to take control of the action on Wednesday and never gave it up until the end of the week.

A few significant wins which resulted in deathcrosses on the hourly and 2H timeframes and a MACD crossover to the downside on the daily ended the week’s action in bearish territory.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears seem pretty confident in their push towards 240 and a 4H deathcross (50/200 EMA) looks iminent.

Bullish scenario

The bulls need to defend 230-250 and reject the bears (preferably at the 200 daily EMA).

If that happens, a higher low would essentially force the bears to retreat at 280-300 again. Previous resistance zones around 320-340 would be open for future attacks at that point.

Bearish scenario

If bears continue pushing until the deathcrosses cascade to higher timeframes, they could easily close under 240 with conviction.

Potential attacks on 180-200 are definitey on the table, provided the bulls continue to show weakness.

Other fronts

No surprises on the BTC front (Poloniex XMR-BTC): bears still in full control, bulls at peak desperation.

The week started at .00493973 and the bulls tried to defend for the first two days, but only managed to print 1 single green daily candle on Tuesday before getting overwhelmed by bears. Price closed at .00423692 (-13.6%).

If bulls cannot mount a solid defense next week, we will surely revisit the .0035-0040 yearly support zone next.

A bear victory at those levels with a close under .0034 would open up a long, but straight path to the ATL from 2015 (0.00097) and at the same time represent a legendary defeat for the bulls.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 40, 2021

Mon, 11 Oct 2021 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 259 (Kraken XMR-USD) and formed a high at 296.16 on Thursday, before closing the week at 270.29 (+4.5%~).

The action

The first part of Week 40 was fully controlled by the bulls. They managed to mount a solid attack around the 280-300 resistance zone, as planned.

On Thursday, however, the bears executed a successful counter-attack on a 4H RSI divergence. That was enough to stop the bulls from advancing any further, after the impressive ~15% rally into their territory.

The week closed with a note of uncertainty, as the bulls started to retreat after losing momentum in the second half.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are starting to apply more pressure, potentially looking to start off the week with a 1H deathcross.

Bullish scenario

The bulls will probably wait for reinforcements, which should arrive around 250-260. They need to defend that zone and force the bears to print a higher low in the process.

If they mangage to end the week without major incidents, another go at 280-300 is possible. Then bulls can plan for their next target, which would be the previous resistance zones around 320-340.

Bearish scenario

Although the previous week ended in the green, the bears did exactly what they had to do in order to avoid disaster by defending 300.

A few deathcrosses are possible this week on key timeframes like the hourly and 4H. If they can do that and force the bulls to retreat with a close under 240, all bullish plans would be delayed for the near future and the bears can then potentially attack 180-200.

Other fronts

Another bloody week for the bulls on the BTC front (Bitfinex XMR-BTC), where bears seem to be unstoppable from their march towards this year’s low at 0.0034265.

The week started at .0053723 and the bears managed to print 6 red candles since Tuesday. Price closed at .0049430 (-8%).

At the time of this report the bears are still applying pressure and the bulls are desperately attempting to mount a defense around .0047. If nothing changes, we could revisit the .0035-0040 support zone from the beginning of the year sooner rather than later.

Update: removed ATL reference; will replace Bitfinex with something like Poloniex in future, to reports to get access to older XMR-BTC data.

New: Added ‘Other fronts’ section with XMR-BTC reporting. Should this be a regular thing? Let me know.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 39, 2021

Mon, 04 Oct 2021 UTC

Overview

XMR opened at 234.13 (Kraken XMR-USD) and closed the week slightly above the daily 200 EMA at 259.13 (+10%~).

The action

The bulls started Week 39 strong and managed to create a higher low/higher high pattern on the 4H chart and also an impressive MACD crossover on the daily. They never really took their foot off the gas.

After three consecutive good weeks for the bears, they were forced to scrap their dreaded daily death cross plans. They really have to defend now.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are attempting to pierce the daily 50 EMA with what looks like a nicely forming bullish hammer candle.

Bullish scenario

The bulls have successfully accomplished almost everything they needed to and are now in an excellent position to attack 280.

As reported last week:

The bulls need to defend the weekly support zone at the 50 EMA (~225) and prevent a death cross on the daily to stop the bears from advancing further.

Done.

A close above both daily EMA’s (50 & 200) would open up the road to 280 and pontentially give them another shot at breaking the resistance located around the 330 region.

Yes!

Best case scenario, they manage to break the lower low bearish pattern and escape the descending triangle. That would be a huge victory.

In progress..

All they have to do now is stay above 250 and attack the bears at the descending triangle resistance around 280.

If they break the bears and escape the triangle, the next target would be previous resistance zones around 320-340.

Bearish scenario

Having lost momentum, the now confused and exhausted bears have retreated, most probably in the 280 resistance area.

They cannot give up without a fight, but the stakes are high: a defeat in that zone would be disastruous for the bears as that would expose the crucial 340 resistance to a bull assault.

That’s their last major defence zone before the ATH, so bears need to win and clearly reject bulls in order to discourage any future attempts.

A close under 240 would be amazing at this point and after that they can restart plans to conquer 225 and then 180.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 38, 2021

Mon, 27 Sep 2021 UTC

Overview

Last week, XMR opened at 260.19 (Kraken XMR-USD), dropped to 212.62 (-18.5%~) on Tuesday and the weekly close was at 234.55 (-10%~).

Price has dropped below the daily 200 EMA. The weekly 50 EMA is still supporting, for now.

The action

Bears took control of the action as soon as Week 38 started by printing a three black crows candle formation on the 4H chart. For the first half of the week the bulls were nowhere to be found.

The bulls were regrouping slightly below the weekly 50 EMA in the 210-225 zone.

By the end of the week, when bears started to lose steam, the bulls managed to avoid disaster and save face with a ~10% rejection candle that closed above the low.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears are still in control but price hasn’t moved much yet.

Bullish scenario

The bulls need to defend the weekly support zone at the 50 EMA (~225) and prevent a death cross on the daily to stop the bears from advancing further.

A close above both daily EMA’s (50 & 200) would open up the road to 280 and pontentially give them another shot at breaking the resistance located around the 330 region.

Best case scenario, they manage to break the lower low bearish pattern and escape the descending triangle. That would be a huge victory.

Bearish scenario

Bears have momentum on their side. All they have to do is continue applying pressure until the bulls start waving the white flag.

As mentioned in previous reports:

A strong close under 240 is every bear’s wet dream that would leave the road to the previous support region at the 170-190 zone wide open.

All they have to do now is try and actually close under 240 and then push the price under the weekly 50 EMA at around 225, which is an important bull support zone.

They did manage to close under 240 (234.55), but barely. There is still work to do.

If they keep pushing until the death cross happens, bulls might get demoralized and possibly be forced to retreat to the previous support zone around 170-190.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 37, 2021

Mon, 20 Sep 2021 UTC

Overview

Last week, XMR opened at 256.21 (Kraken XMR-USD), peaked at 283.99 on Thursday and the weekly close was at 260.12.

A general feeling of uncertainty has been dominating.

The action

Having flashbacks to the previous week’s unfortunate campaign, the bulls started Week 37 with a clear plan: attack the daily 50 EMA located around 270-280. A successfull penetration of that resistance zone could have potentially triggered a rally all the way to the descending triangle resistance at 300-310.

The bulls managed to touch the moving average for 6 days (except Friday). They finally lost steam towards the end of the week. The highest they got was the 283.99 peak.

As anticipated in the previous report, the bears were expecting this kind of move and rejected the bulls repeatedly, essentially denying them any significant movement space.

They printed a nice bearish candle with a long (~6%) wick to the upside on Thursday and that’s when it was pretty clear who is in control.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bears have managed to pierce both the daily 200 EMA support and the descending triangle with what looks like a bearish engulfing candle in the making.

Bullish scenario

The bulls need to close today’s candle above 250 and somehow turn this candle around. If that’s not doable, they absolutely have to at least defend the weekly support zone at the 50 EMA (~225).

If they somehow, miraculously, manage to pull off a close above the daily 200 EMA, there is still a lot of work to do, as they would still be sandwiched between the 50 & 200 EMAs. Another attempt at breaking both, essentially what they failed to do last week, is what they will have to prepare for after that.

Bearish scenario

Bears did precisely what they had to, essentially they have accomplished the first task listed in my previous report and the second one is currently in progress:

Bears need to show up and reject the bulls either at the 50 EMA or at the triangle resistance in order to maintain the lower low pattern.

Check.

A strong close under 240 is every bear’s wet dream that would leave the road to the previous support region at the 170-190 zone wide open.

In progress.

All they have to do now is try and actually close under 240 and then push the price under the weekly 50 EMA at around 225, which is an important bull support zone.

If they can keep the price under that level long enough, the bears will most probably get the chance to properly time and mount the 170-190 zone attack.

This is a weekly report that I will try and publish every Monday. Hope you enjoyed it. I love getting feedback @ /about/

-escapethe3RA

Monero Observer XMR TA Report - Week 36, 2021

Mon, 13 Sep 2021 UTC

Overview

Last week, XMR peaked at 324.40 on Monday (Kraken XMR-USD) and then dropped all the way to the previous support region around 242 on Tuesday.

That’s the biggest move of the week, a 24.7% drop. Bears dominated.

The action

Frontline bulls showed up at the daily 200 EMA and did their best to reject the bears with a long wick to the downside, managing to close that big bearish engulfing candle at 263.65.

After a couple of skirmishes, price consolidated between the 50 and 200 moving averages and closed at 256 on Sunday to end the week on a note of uncertainty.

Potential scenarios

As I am writing this report, the bulls are attempting to construct a nice bullish hammer with a decent wick supported by the 200 EMA.

Bullish scenario

If the bulls manage a close above the 50 EMA (~275) with enough volume and conviction, we might retest the long-standing descending triangle resistance at the 300 - 310 region.

Then pretty much the biggest thing that would be left standing between bulls and the ATH is the 350 level.

Bearish scenario

Bears need to show up and reject the bulls either at the 50 EMA or at the triangle resistance in order to maintain the lower low pattern.

A strong close under 240 is every bear’s wet dream that would leave the road to the previous support region at the 170-190 zone wide open.

This was requested by MO readers that liked my Monero Observer Blitz technical analysis end section. If you want to see more TA reports like this one, please let me know (via email) and I will try and create one each week: /about/

-escapethe3RA